MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. Coldest of the season so far here. Consistent lows over the last few days: Sat - 45.7 Sun - 45.9 Mon - 44.2
  2. I’ve actually read the papers on this one. Effectively, they define a vector from the big raindrop region (Zdr) to the heavy precipitation region (Kdp). If the vector is closer to 90 degrees from storm motion, there is much more likely to be a tornado. The thought is that a narrower vector puts the Kdp region (negative buoyancy from the heavy rain) too close to the updraft.
  3. The HRRR continues to have a very sharp cutoff on the north side of Sally today, while the other models have some rain making it north of 66. I'd take a few drips for my grass seed.
  4. ~100 w/m2 reduction from last year's Sept. 15th (800 to 700, both sunny days) on my VP2.
  5. 10am and still in the 50s. Excellent.
  6. This upcoming weekend looks like legit Fall. Fantastic.
  7. That N/S train was like a mini-Lee.
  8. Saw a tweet that said that the 29-9 was the first "new" final score (a scorigami) in MLB since 1999. Conversely, 3-2 has happened 11,976 times.
  9. Modeling had it pretty spotty, and that verified. I got 1.54".
  10. The forecast for the CO front range is mind-boggling. 90s on Monday, and a snowstorm on Tuesday. The Euro has a 40 degree drop in 6 hours at Boulder.
  11. Boundary from the current storms is sitting just S of 66.
  12. It isn't really putting out the outflow boundaries that we see sometimes. Check out the clear air returns on radar. All our air is still coming from the S.
  13. We have to wait for the stuff back in WV. The 2nd round was always 7pm-ish.
  14. 84.1 here just a bit west of you. Plenty of sun now, though it will cloud up for a period soon. Should be transient, though.
  15. Did the same just 15 minutes ago. I remain unconvinced that my kid will be able to pay attention during 1st grade online, but they seem to be putting in the effort.
  16. The new background map is nice.
  17. In EJ's world, we only hit these if they are billion-dollar disasters. So, still due
  18. 0.39” and still steady. Definitely a blend of the models. Didn’t dry up like the mesos thought, but the Euro was way too aggressive.
  19. 06z HRRR is effectively sprinkles. Meanwhile the 00z Euro still douses us.
  20. Have you looked at a map of the landfall area? Can you see how a landfall 30 or so miles to the west would have put the fetch straight up the waterway to Lake Charles? Are you willing to bet that the landfall forecast was going to be so perfect that a 30 mile error wasn't in the realm of possibility?
  21. Now 81 mph KAEX 271153Z AUTO 13045G70KT