MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. This is how far we've come with forecasting that an incorrect path "only 8 days ago" is noteworthy.
  2. Oh good, we topped a record today at DCA. 96. The prior record (95) was tied way back in 2018. Another big FU from Summer on the way out.
  3. 0.11” here but it has been rumbling in the distance for an hour.
  4. The Euro has it running nearly the length of Grand Bahama Is. before making the turn. The 18z HWRF is scary. Landfall at Cape Canaveral.
  5. I didn’t realize that Josh was there. He is in the eyewall now in Marsh Harbour. This is from a bit back.
  6. The Euro has 100mph+ gusts at Freeport in the Bahamas from daybreak Monday to sundown Tuesday. That is rough.
  7. I get the concept though. You have the trough swinging through the lakes which is able to tug Dorian north, but it isn't strong enough or close enough to pull it out to sea with it. So the trough passes and you are left with weak steering currents. That would be a damn mess, because the inflow would stay over the water. Better for Orlando than the ones that "barrel" into the coast, but the coastal and freshwater flooding from Melbourne up to Jax would be significant.
  8. Coastal scraper. HWRF is ~940 just south of Cape Canaveral.
  9. Not a stretch. What is it, two Cat 4+ landfalls on the east coast in the last 50 years (Andrew, Hugo)?
  10. The problem with this kind of storm setup is that there is a lot of heat/moisture to fuel the storms, but the triggers are very subtle. Unlike a squall line or supercell where movement can be counted on, these cell just kind of ooze around and then die out. So, putting up a warning box is especially tough. The storm last night looked really healthy, and 30 min late it was remnant clouds. Nature of the beast. Not to mention, the areas that get hit by severe conditions are almost always very small.
  11. Triple point boundary collision right at the bend of 495 in Annandale. See if anything comes of it. Great Falls getting hit. Again.
  12. Three straight 95+ in later August is pretty good.
  13. There is an AI yoda that posts warning text to cover down times.
  14. Back to 97 for the 3:52pm ob. Chance for 100 is shot, but we were either 98 or 99, which is a big number as we get into late August.
  15. Got the W wind to push us up by a tad. DP down to ~66. Tied the record, might as well try to push for triple digits.
  16. DCA 97, now 1 shy of the record. I think the river is finally warm enough that the winds aren't really hampering the temps.
  17. 99 on the tarmac at BWI. New daily record high. 95 at IAD has tied the record.