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MN Transplant

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. They closed what is probably the most flood-prone area of Fairfax County, Burke Lake Road at the lake. The first domino to drop.
  2. I'm still skeptical that we see the widespread significant winds, but yeah with the preexisting conditions I don't have a problem with it.
  3. I haven't been looking at the long-term stuff, but diving into the GFS it is interesting that there is a regular cadence of chances in a broad sense. There is effectively a re-load every few days, which is really apparent looking at the precipitable water. That gives us chances, even if nothing is coming together on the model right now. 9th 12/13th 15/16th 18/19th 21st
  4. Just a completely different evolution than the Euro. That said, the players are there. The euro pairs the shortwave in the SW with the trough diving down through the Plains. The GFS has both of these things, but doesn't sync them up.
  5. Just for fun, the wind accumulation product from Windy provides the peak modeled wind gust. Let's see how they do at DCA: NAM 3k (06z): 57mph HRRR (13z): 60mph (!) GFS (06z): 63mph Euro (06z): 49mph ICON (06z): 54mph
  6. You are correct. The HRRR has definitely stepped up winds since yesterday.
  7. 973 low making landfall in coastal Maine with Caribou switching over to rain.
  8. 12z HRRR looks far more realistic with the surface wind gusts than the NAM. Peak wind gusts via Windy. Reds are 40s, purples are 50s.
  9. A causal reminder that, inland, we don't typically get big winds with SE flow. It generally stays elevated. That said, the NWS P&C for DC Tuesday evening has 30G45mph which is solid.
  10. 35.1. The steady rain has started. Was in downtown DC earlier and never saw a flake. Sleet to rain.
  11. 33.3 here. Most of downtown DC is in the 36 range.
  12. 23.2, which was colder than any December day, but not as cold as Nov. 29th.
  13. If only we had that track in Jan/Feb…
  14. For this storm, that is a NAMming around DC. I like how the model R/S line stalls a bit at 18-19z before completely blowing past us.
  15. The NAM has been bone dry so far. Significant outlier.
  16. The NAM is really dry and weak. The Euro is 8mb deeper and wetter.
  17. Does that account for a close mow? It is wild that this turned into a Saturday only event.
  18. 2” of rain just east of DC. I’m ignoring this one.
  19. Snow maps are going to struggle on the boundary. Soundings and QPF are the way to go. I’m modestly happy with this run sitting on the western DC Beltway.
  20. The column is holding on for dear life from 18 to 21z in the DC area. It eventually falls, but there’s almost 0.6” precip by 21z. Ratios would suck, but it would be a few inches of snow first in this scenario.
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