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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    0.56” of more not snow
  2. MN Transplant
    That northern stream vort just gets squashed. And of course the trailing trough is still positively tilted by the time it gets to us.
  3. MN Transplant
    The problem is that the best GFS runs had X and Y join up. My concern is that now that X and Y are decoupled on the GFS, we risk moving further toward a Euro scenario where X simply serves to completely squash Y. And X isn’t going to be able to give us much unless it digs deeper.
  4. MN Transplant
    It simply comes down to this - we can’t have this feature so shallow and that far north. The GFS moved away from tying the disturbances together but still had this one dig far enough south to help us out late. The Euro sweeps this through north of us and has the second result of crushing the western vort.
  5. MN Transplant
    Smoke
  6. MN Transplant
    You can check out the code here and decide where the programmers decided to put in the 'every option' lines. https://github.com/NOAA-EMC/fv3atm
  7. MN Transplant
    Unfortunately, yes.
  8. MN Transplant
    ~2.5” which means I’m approaching 10” since the start of December. Drought, busted.
  9. MN Transplant
    DCA not even reporting gusts at this point. If it sticks, the peak gust will be 48 mph. 4 mph wind/gust here. The boundary layer always wins for a southerly wind (*results may vary east of 95).
  10. MN Transplant
    Wind here has been a dud. Gust to 29 a couple of hours ago. The rain just keeps coming, though.
  11. MN Transplant
    Near our favorite place
  12. MN Transplant
    DCA to 47 mph My daughter’s music class was cancelled because the building lost power.
  13. MN Transplant
    Far more puddles than the previous storms over the past month. We really are saturated now in the top levels of the soil. Over an inch and plenty more on the way.
  14. MN Transplant
    Good news here is that the precip is still significant. Not quite as much as 00z, but still most of us are 0.8"-1.0" QPF.
  15. MN Transplant
    They closed what is probably the most flood-prone area of Fairfax County, Burke Lake Road at the lake. The first domino to drop.
  16. MN Transplant
    500 is messier than 00z
  17. MN Transplant
    I'm still skeptical that we see the widespread significant winds, but yeah with the preexisting conditions I don't have a problem with it.
  18. MN Transplant
    I haven't been looking at the long-term stuff, but diving into the GFS it is interesting that there is a regular cadence of chances in a broad sense. There is effectively a re-load every few days, which is really apparent looking at the precipitable water. That gives us chances, even if nothing is coming together on the model right now. 9th 12/13th 15/16th 18/19th 21st
  19. MN Transplant
    Just a completely different evolution than the Euro. That said, the players are there. The euro pairs the shortwave in the SW with the trough diving down through the Plains. The GFS has both of these things, but doesn't sync them up.
  20. MN Transplant
    Just for fun, the wind accumulation product from Windy provides the peak modeled wind gust. Let's see how they do at DCA: NAM 3k (06z): 57mph HRRR (13z): 60mph (!) GFS (06z): 63mph Euro (06z): 49mph ICON (06z): 54mph
  21. MN Transplant
    You are correct. The HRRR has definitely stepped up winds since yesterday.
  22. MN Transplant
    973 low making landfall in coastal Maine with Caribou switching over to rain.
  23. MN Transplant
    It’s not the same track.
  24. MN Transplant
    12z HRRR looks far more realistic with the surface wind gusts than the NAM. Peak wind gusts via Windy. Reds are 40s, purples are 50s.
  25. MN Transplant
    A causal reminder that, inland, we don't typically get big winds with SE flow. It generally stays elevated. That said, the NWS P&C for DC Tuesday evening has 30G45mph which is solid.
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