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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Snowboard is deployed and ready to go
  2. MN Transplant
    DCA 5-minute ob is currently 36/1.
  3. MN Transplant
    I think we all have to be realistic that the super-HRRR runs with a large swath of a foot plus are a bit of a reach. If we are all sitting with a nice 6-10" will some lollis, that is a win.
  4. MN Transplant
    Yeah, ICON finally came back north a bit.
  5. MN Transplant
    Feeling good about playing against consensus.
  6. MN Transplant
    Looks like thundersnow near Topeka.
  7. MN Transplant
    And yet, it is still 0.5” precip all frozen in DC. I’ll take that as the floor.
  8. MN Transplant
    Not quite. The JV ICON is still south, not that we will put any weight on that.
  9. MN Transplant
    Now let’s see if we can coax the Ukie and RGEM north.
  10. MN Transplant
    We accumulate snow, lightly, at every time step until midnight thanks to the influence of the 500 low.
  11. MN Transplant
    Yeah, that’s the big takeaway. For the main slug of moisture, the NAM has caved for DC. Still problematic for Fredericksburg.
  12. MN Transplant
    This HRRR run is the realistic best case scenario. Wet and cold for most of us with the front side.
  13. MN Transplant
    There really is only the NAM that is in the north camp. I’m hoping we get a cave here in the next hour.
  14. MN Transplant
    With this GFS run, the NAM is now on an island bringing mixing into DC.
  15. MN Transplant
    Is it that they are diverging, or are the NAM/GFS just on an island with the north solution?
  16. MN Transplant
    They close the gap a touch in the late part of the storm, but yeah, that is a wild difference this close.
  17. MN Transplant
    Manassas has no snow and 0.8" precip through the main batch.
  18. MN Transplant
    HRRR is the furthest north with the surface low, taking it through northern KY.
  19. MN Transplant
    Because we are all sickos here, snow starts at midnight Monday on the 12z HRRR. Gotta say, I'm a bit skeptical of the 30"+ projections in northeast KS.
  20. MN Transplant
    You won't be checking the HRRR hourly?
  21. MN Transplant
    The 3km NAM gives Indy 16” of Kuchera snow. The RGEM is 4”. It is 42 hours from snow onset out there.
  22. MN Transplant
    Thermometers are really accurate, but the housing/siting is where things go awry.
  23. MN Transplant
    Even with the NAM overprediction of precip, that is a wild number for an event where the surface never gets above 28 degrees.
  24. MN Transplant
    Let’s see if this works. A flash behind the snowy clouds. NVRCH05-00-153504-153512.mov
  25. MN Transplant
    Huge flakes. Still 36.2 but accumulating on grass and cars anyway.
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