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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Another interesting divergence in the models - surface temps. 00z Monday (7pm Sunday) HRRR: 27 DC, 20 Frederick NAM Nest: 28 DC, 29 Frederick RDPS: 20 DC, 17 Frederick Euro: 27 DC, 21 Frederick GFS: 23 DC, 18 Frederick
  2. MN Transplant
    There is less than a quarter inch of precip from changeover at 12z to 18z for many of us.
  3. MN Transplant
    Another dud of a NAM Nest run. Changeover at 7am in DC. Less than 0.4" QPF to that point.
  4. MN Transplant
    Parent NAM (ugh) is still a morning changeover, but it looks like ~0.5" QPF, so same ballpark as the HRRR. Not a catastrophe.
  5. MN Transplant
    The 06z HRRR was able to "beat back" the mix line in the late morning period. It doesn't happen on this run, and it is more NAM-like in flying the mix line north. Not nearly as bad as the NAM though.
  6. MN Transplant
    DC loses the column between 14-15z, just shy of 0.5" QPF. So, the HRRR is probably a 5-7" event before the sleet.
  7. MN Transplant
    I'm not sure that I'd completely characterize it as a "thump", given that the HRRR is 0.05" QPF per hour from 09z to 14z, but if we do score favorable ratios it'll be a nice period.
  8. MN Transplant
    DCA made it to 10 this morning with open water surrounding it and no snowcover. That is serious cold.
  9. MN Transplant
    6.8 for the low. That would be my min for a bunch of winters. Probably will beat that this week.
  10. MN Transplant
    The surface didn’t warm as much as the HRRR. Stays around 25 in DC and the freezing line is east of the Bay.
  11. MN Transplant
    About 0.40” before the flip in DC (using 13z). So, probably 4-5”.
  12. MN Transplant
    We took a step backwards with a stronger (the strongest yet) 850 low in Ohio.
  13. MN Transplant
    The 3km NAM is the worst run so far for DC. Only about 0.3" before the flip. Pronounced warm nose between 750-800mb.
  14. MN Transplant
    Parent NAM still changes DC over at 12z, but at least there is a bit more precip by then. But really, we should be looking at the 3k from now to the event.
  15. MN Transplant
    Lord help us all for looking at the HRRR at range, but it is a good 0.70" QPF before the flip in DC. Nice run.
  16. MN Transplant
    I just checked, and it is 6 consecutive 00z/12z Euro runs that have weakened the 850 low. Not massive changes, but much, much better than going the other way.
  17. MN Transplant
    Updated version
  18. MN Transplant
    Yeah, the FV3 is a better scenario. Flip isn't until 21z and 1" QPF falls by then in DC. I just don't buy it.
  19. MN Transplant
    I guess it depends on your definition of "barely any snow". I think a <4" snowfall is still an outlier possibility for DC. Even on the 3k NAM the sounding is perfectly fine up until 15z (12z for reference below).
  20. MN Transplant
    On the upside, this will be the most impressive sleet event since at least 2017, if not 2007.
  21. MN Transplant
    Can't wait for my biggest snowstorm since (checks notes) January 2025.
  22. MN Transplant
    I don't think I'll need to!
  23. MN Transplant
    Looks like a mix
  24. MN Transplant
    Well, the GFS is either going to score a coup or go down in flames. I'm guessing we already know. Play the game of spot the 850 low.
  25. MN Transplant
    I don't know, I'm looking at West Virginia at 850 as a tell, and the area of above freezing 850s is consistent from 06z to 12z to 18z. I'd expect to see that area larger on the west side of the Apps if it were trending toward keeping a stronger 850 low. The timing is a bit off so you have to loop each of the runs rather than compare hour to hour.
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