MN Transplant

81.8. Torchvember has arrived.

Trace!

Needless to say, IAD did set the record. 82.2 here

And, 80 degrees. IAD is getting close to the record high of 81. The other two records are probably safe (85).

The good news is that the models will come out an hour earlier on Sunday, so we can see more quickly that nothing is happening.

The only two places east of the Rockies that are above normal in the last 30 days are central Florida (Milton) and central VA (dying gasps of Helene).

Contributing factors to DCA’s temps are primarily the river temperature and the overall DC heat island. The sensor isn’t that close to the runway. The river temperature this morning was 58 degrees just upstream.

40.1. Seasonal low is 39.2 so far. DCA hasn’t been below 44 yet.

Getting close to being -10" vs normal since June 1st.

In my 11-year record, 2024 has the driest June, July, and potentially October.

Something is allowing BWI to radiate perfectly down to the DP. The RH at IAD was in the 70s and 80s all night until getting into the 90s when the morning low happened. Meanwhile, from 10pm to 2am BWI was flirting or at 100% RH. All else being equal, I'm going to blame the mega-drought.

That’s amazing. 38 at IAD and 44 in the river. 39.2 here

40.1. Frost in the lower parts of the neighborhood, including a hint on the grass but mostly cars and roofs.

I had them at 4 wins this year. I didn't realize that every single FA acquisition would hit and that the coaching staff would step up to the next level. Brutal injury for Detroit losing Aiden Hutchinson. Hate to see that.

The NFC North is just crushing everyone right now.

Got it in Falls Church. Nice.

61.5 midday, full sun. This is great.

12-13” of rain and gusting into the 80s is a bad combo https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSPG&hours=72

Katrina killed over 200 people in Mississippi. Mostly from storm surge.

Midnight low coming for today.

It seems like we have a couple of primary scenarios at this point, both really unpleasant. One is that Milton gains latitude as it approaches FL and landfalls N of Tampa. Given the forecast shear and dry air, it should be weakening at that point, but that won't matter for the surge. The other is that Milton runs further south and isn't as affected by the dry air/shear. This would be great for Tampa, but would be just horrible for Venice down to Fort Myers who are dealing with the aftermaths of Helene and Ian, respectively.

06z HAFS-B is again an unraveling of Milton as it approaches FL, but a landfall just N of Tampa. HAFS-A also has weakening, but more gradual and is again just N of Tampa.

Yes, a track over Tampa is unusual. They are one of the most vulnerable locations, but the predominant track from the south means that it would have to be a unique track to bend it perfectly to put them in the right front quadrant. However, Milton is completely different, coming from the west. It'll take a couple of days to really get the track down, but a somewhat perpendicular hit to the west FL coastline could be really problematic.

Everyone is correctly focused on Tampa, but if this is a strong hurricane at landfall, some of these tracks are really sketchy for Orlando too.

2nd mow since June