Just a reminder that the Euro surface temps are completely broken, so go with the GFS and adjust based on storm location if you think the Euro track is better.
We had not-even-close-to-accumulating flurries so I'm pretty sure they'll be a T. The discussion in this thread about slick streets is a completely different world from what we experienced around DC.
Models say you might be able to sneak it in. The mid-level clouds that will be coming in from the south look like they'll hold off until midnight or so (look at the 700 RH on the GFS). Higher level (500mb) RH still gives you a window before 11pm or so. Going to the mesos, the HRRR/NAM Next look good through 10pm while the NAM parent has some clouds moving in closer to 8pm. All-in-all, you'll have to make a call on how much risk your group is willing to take.
Not sure if this has been covered yet, but with the snow more attached to the 500 low, the temps aloft are cold enough to put us in favorable ratio territory on the GFS. So, yes, we'd like more precip, but this could be fluffier than normal.
For a single event, I guess I’d go with the January snow since it was only the 2nd time in 6 years that we had 6”+ on the ground. And it stuck around forever unlike the Feb snow which was gone in two days.
Really though, the story was the complete lack of precip from about mid-July forward.
Maybe a pedantic clarification, but the Euro isn't necessarily showing snow here because of a north trend. What it is doing is swinging a more potent vort through OH into our region which helps with the lift needed for a minor accumulation. The other models don't have that feature or are weaker.
Mammoth is apparently doing well via Jebman, but I didn't realize how awful the season has been so far in Colorado. Only a fraction of runs open at the resorts and way below normal snowpack.