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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    I had to stare really hard, but I saw some flurries. 34.9 and soon to drop.
  2. MN Transplant
    37/18 on the ob at DCA. 34.6 here. Almost completely irrelevant. mPING reports from Winchester and Front Royal, and even one in the last couple of minutes from The Plains along 66.
  3. MN Transplant
    5” is a very realistic target for us
  4. MN Transplant
    Parent NAM is an inch an hour from 4-10pm. Always fun to get a NAM’ing.
  5. MN Transplant
    I consider the 12z HRRR to be a complete cave. 0.5” precip up to DC.
  6. MN Transplant
    It is amazing that every model puts the heaviest axis of precip between Richmond and Fredericksburg, and the HRRR just insists that it’ll be Richmond and south.
  7. MN Transplant
    Maybe no shock that the NAM over amps this one. 3k with 0.75” precip, which plays
  8. MN Transplant
    Steady as she goes
  9. MN Transplant
    Let’s be clear about the HRRR. There have only been 3 runs that take it to 6z Wednesday and 2 through 12z. The 06z run at 48 hours had 0.11” precip through 48 at DC. The current run has 0.40” through the same period.
  10. MN Transplant
    Not that it matters, but the QPF around DC is 0.45”, which is about the RGEM/ICON/Ukie.
  11. MN Transplant
    It is locked in. Can barely tell any difference in the precip fields from 00 to 06 to 12z.
  12. MN Transplant
    The HRRR is great - when it confirms what every other model is saying.
  13. MN Transplant
    Tight precip gradient around DC. Best from Fredericksburg east.
  14. MN Transplant
    It remains a 5-7” storm with the potential for a couple of inches upside in a small, tbd area. Nothing overnight changed that.
  15. MN Transplant
    Lop 1/3 off the NAM precip, apply a 10:1 and you put it right in the 5-7” range that the other models have been projecting. That’s our target for DC.
  16. MN Transplant
    3k is a nice 6-9”
  17. MN Transplant
    Other than Not Like Us, Kendrick has been more niche. Talented as hell, but not as radio-friendly. It was surprising when he was tapped for the halftime show.
  18. MN Transplant
    Dominating lines. Impressive.
  19. MN Transplant
    To provide a low side on the estimates, here is the max Total Snow Depth on the various models for DC. NAM 12k: 7.8" NAM 3k (truncated at 06z Wed): 3.5" with more to come RGEM: 4.4" GFS: 3.6"
  20. MN Transplant
    Come to papa
  21. MN Transplant
    I don’t envy whoever has to forecast for Richmond on this one.
  22. MN Transplant
    Big difference between the NAM and RGEM is that the NAM has a break in precip on Wednesday while the RGEM's transition is blurrier. Unfortunately on the RGEM that means rain by Wednesday evening.
  23. MN Transplant
    Weirdly splotchy precip distribution, but a general 3-6".
  24. MN Transplant
    The HRRR was dead on for yesterday. I got 0.05" precip. Blind squirrel and all.
  25. MN Transplant
    The NAM Nest puts the axis further south, between Fredericksburg and Richmond. Huge practical difference for DC for the afternoon into early evening hours.
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