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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Oh yeah
  2. MN Transplant
    Yeah, 06z is sleet, but it isn't like we spike way too warm. Like I was talking about yesterday, the 850 low on the GFS is just more diffuse and reforms near or over us.
  3. MN Transplant
    GFS is more of a two-parter than some of the other models. First comes through cold and all snow. Looks like the 2nd is going to be latitudinally-dependent. 00Z Monday DCA
  4. MN Transplant
    12z sounding is clean at DCA. Warmest is about -5C
  5. MN Transplant
    I'm going to post the Correlation Coefficient to annoy @mattie g
  6. MN Transplant
    Yeah, interesting that it happened again in a year where we had a cold December leading into January.
  7. MN Transplant
    There is a real chance that many of us get more precipitation as sleet than snow, and that sucks.
  8. MN Transplant
    Sunday morning 7am per the NAM at DCA
  9. MN Transplant
    It gets DC to about 1" QPF, all snow. Kuceras are going to be large.
  10. MN Transplant
    This run doesn't bring the warmth anywhere near us.
  11. MN Transplant
    We spent days not wanting the GFS solution, now it is our best hope
  12. MN Transplant
    GFS still with a weak 850 low like this morning. This shouldn't end up like the ICON or even the Euro.
  13. MN Transplant
    One thing that I'm noticing is that the models with a stronger 850 low in the central US are the ones that are able to drive it up to Cleveland and eventually draw up the warm sector for us at the end of the storm. The GFS does not do that, with a weak 850 low that is eventually replaced by a new low that forms off of Cape May, NJ.
  14. MN Transplant
    This is what the Euro looks like above ground over DC. 1000mb at the bottom, going up by 50mb to 800mb and then by 100mb. So, there isn’t necessarily any sneaky layer, it is just the 850-700mb level we lose later on in the storm. Via Windy
  15. MN Transplant
    From above, it looks like almost half of the members have 6" or less.
  16. MN Transplant
    Not quite as good
  17. MN Transplant
    While we are waiting for the GFS, here is a nice visualization of the 06z GEFS members for IAD. https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/plumes/
  18. MN Transplant
    My brother got a faint glow outside of Frederick. Camera visible only.
  19. MN Transplant
    Went from ~0.06" QPF to ~0.75" around DC from 12z to 18z. Love the GFS.
  20. MN Transplant
    Be careful with Kucera!
  21. MN Transplant
    GDPS is great, but I'd pump the brakes on HECS-level. DC and north looks like it is <1" QPF.
  22. MN Transplant
    Exactly. This is a fail as far as what we want, but that is a solid northern stream vort that does some good work for us. Still a couple to a few inches of snow with temps in the teens.
  23. MN Transplant
    The SW low is in exactly the same spot as the 12z GFS.
  24. MN Transplant
    I was just poking around the Euro and had to go all the way down to Rocky Mount/Raleigh before a warm nose at 725mb showed up. It is amazing how cold these runs are.
  25. MN Transplant
    At least until we get convergence on the individual members. This is still a substantial spread on the GFS. Still ~8 of 20 members that are duds for most of us.
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