MN Transplant

18z HRRR, 6hr precip 5pm-11pm

18z HRRR has the inverted trough axis fractionally east. I clearly approve of the location.

35.6. 0.25" precip on the day. Got my hockey high this morning, now the doldrums until the snow starts this evening.

Gold! USA!

The locations show if you go sideways to landscape mode.

Yeah, that’s exactly what’s happening. Rates temporarily win but it is still way too warm overall. 34.9

Looks like the latter. Got some snowflakes in that heavier band, but back to rain now.

I have partially melted snowflake mixing in at 36.0 degrees

I certainly like the placement of the inverted trough on the models. But, I think anyone rooting for the 3km NAM early changeover outside of the favored areas is wishcasting. 12z sounding from Dulles. 72403 IAD Sterling Observations at 12Z 22 Feb 2026 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1005.0 93 3.4 1.9 90 4.39 330 5 276.2 288.3 276.9 1000.0 130 4.2 0.3 76 3.93 65 3 277.4 288.3 278.0 999.0 138 4.2 0.2 75 3.90 67 3 277.4 288.3 278.1 956.0 493 1.5 -0.6 86 3.85 140 10 278.2 289.0 278.9 938.0 646 0.3 -0.9 91 3.82 130 11 278.6 289.3 279.2 925.0 759 -0.5 -1.2 95 3.80 150 11 278.8 289.5 279.4 923.0 776 -0.7 -1.4 95 3.76 150 12 278.8 289.3 279.4 910.0 889 -1.3 -1.9 95 3.67 120 14 279.3 289.7 279.9 884.0 1120 -2.5 -3.0 96 3.49 130 10 280.4 290.4 281.0 883.0 1129 -2.5 -3.0 96 3.49 133 10 280.4 290.4 281.0 874.0 1211 -1.9 -2.2 98 3.74 156 10 281.9 292.6 282.5 859.0 1348 -2.8 -2.9 99 3.62 195 11 282.4 292.7 283.0 850.0 1432 -3.3 -3.3 100 3.54 215 8 282.7 292.9 283.3 841.0 1516 -3.7 -3.7 100 3.47 214 8 283.1 293.1 283.7 825.0 1668 -3.5 -3.5 100 3.60 212 9 284.9 295.3 285.5

Rain. 36.3

39/28

I don’t think I’ll break top-5 since 2016.

Not sure about moderate. We are tacking on 0.01 to 0.02”/hr from 3am on.

This is such a weird model battle. There's no doubt that the GFS "won" by catching on to the synoptics. But it was terrible for sensible weather, first spitting out monster amounts inland and then insisting that the main part of the event was during the day on Sunday.

I bet those get bumped by about an inch by the end of the day.

Doing some estimation, it looks like 0.5"-0.6" for a lot of us, which is a nice result and lands in the middle of the more conservative models and the NAMs.

You need to look at the forecast overnight. Tomorrow daytime is not relevant unless you are a true GFS believer.

RDPS (RGEM) similar, maybe 0.3"-0.4" in that timeframe, with the exception of the inverted trough which remains from Leesburg to Hagerstown.

ICON looks fine. Ignore the snow maps, they are irrelevant. 0.3" precip falls in DC-Balt after 00z, and if we are taking 22z to be the changeover, there's likely another 0.1" added to that (I only have the 6-hr increments on Pivotal). So, that puts it in the 0.4" of snow QPF camp.

The 3km is a really nice run. It has the 5-9pm period as a key for solid snow, but it also throws back more precip overnight, especially closer to the Bay. Verbatim, there is 0.65" of precip after 5pm in DC and nearly 0.9" in Baltimore.

HRRR is ~0.2-0.4" QPF after 5pm. That's our event.

On one level, this is a mess of a forecast because the models are all over the place. On another, this is really just a straightforward event where we lean on climo. It isn't going to accumulate during the day in the metro areas and while the precip blossoms again with the low cranking, the broader shield isn't going to be particularly heavy. 2-4" should cover it for most of us, with less in the unfortunate areas on the tarmac at DCA, and more in the hills.

Don’t worry, when we have 4” of slop while the rest of the NE corridor is buried, you’ll feel at ease.

It’s nice how everyone is getting pumped for a PHL/NYC/BOS storm.

The HRRR is a believable scenario. Comes in with a good slug of early moisture, lulls midday, and then ramps back up and cools down late afternoon into evening.