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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    What a gorgeous 500 pass for Richmond
  2. MN Transplant
    If you want a perfect representation of microclimate and cold-air drainage, check out Manassas this morning. The airport sits at a low point, only 50-100' below the surroundings, but enough to perfectly bottom out in calm conditions.
  3. MN Transplant
    Even though the HRRR was too low and the 3km NAM was too high, I'll give them both credit for correctly calling that temps would keep slightly falling after sunrise. IAD is still sitting around their low of 3 or 4, BWI is still about 13. I got down to 8.6 at 8am. But our big local winner looks like it is Manassas at -1. Colder than any of the MD Mesonet sites except for Garrett Co.
  4. MN Transplant
    I think they got about 7" like what was reported. I got 8.5" and they had less precipitation than I did, which was particularly important in the snow period before the sleet. The colors don't mean anything other than more or less snow/sleet.
  5. MN Transplant
    Roger - my sleet was 2:1
  6. MN Transplant
    I think I'd go in-between. Most of us will be single digits, with the favored spots (IAD, Manassas in VA) having a better chance at 0.
  7. MN Transplant
    How much snow/sleet do you think DCA actually received?
  8. MN Transplant
    Assume we are tracking the cold in this thread. 24.0 and the wind is picking up. Models are all over the place on lows tonight, but the favored areas may make a run to 0.
  9. MN Transplant
    12/5 - 1.9" 12/14 - 1.3" 1/26 - 8.5" Total - 11.7"
  10. MN Transplant
    Rooting for George now!
  11. MN Transplant
    My pro-tip from this morning is to pull out the garden shovel. The plastic snow shovels are no match for this mess.
  12. MN Transplant
    Funny thing is that it was kind of a calculated number. At no point did I ever have more than ~7.7” on the ground. A lot of compaction with the weight of the sleet on top. But I also couldn’t find any place that would legitimately give me more than 3.5” of sleet. So, yeah, a 2:1 ratio on the sleet.
  13. MN Transplant
    I’m going to call it 8.5” total. Insane precip at 2.33”.
  14. MN Transplant
    It isn’t N/S, it is E/W, and it is insanely sharp. I popped up to 21 but have fallen back to 18.
  15. MN Transplant
    I don't think I've experience 40:1 outside of the upper Midwest, but it is at least in the realm of possibility. We effectively did 20:1 in early December this winter and that wasn't a crazy airmass. It is just fluff at those ratios.
  16. MN Transplant
    The ~2" of sleet that I just shoveled was heavier than the 5" of snow that I did this morning. It makes sense water content-wise, but it is still wild. 18.0 degrees and rising slowly.
  17. MN Transplant
    The surface temps are running well below guidance, at least IMBY (16.4°) which makes me wonder if the cold layer is going to hold on long enough to reduce the ZR chances.
  18. MN Transplant
    Still just 14.4°. It looks like I got another 0.5" from that mix between 7-8:30am before going over to full sleet. So, sitting at about 5.8", with 5.5" snow and 0.3" sleet. One thing, as everyone has noticed, is that the sleet is very dry. I'm guessing that the depth of the cold layer helped to completely refreeze the sleet without some of the residual "softness" that normally makes it sticky. Might end up being beneficial for travel over the next few days, ZR-dependent.
  19. MN Transplant
    I'm not seeing any plain rain on the GFS except for over east of the Bay. Sometimes the error isn't the model itself but how the individual providers display it.
  20. MN Transplant
    It won't be long. Vis rapidly increased here and I'm mostly sleet.
  21. MN Transplant
    NAM was shockingly low with the precip, but the thermals were good. Still technically snow here, but it is getting louder as it is icy/rimed.
  22. MN Transplant
    5.0” on 0.56” precip. So we scored on the precip and the ratios were bad. As is evidenced by my mesh outdoor furniture not collecting snow at all with tiny snow grains. (Actual snowboard location in fencing above dog).
  23. MN Transplant
    Watching the temp/DP come together at 13 degrees is much more fun than 34.
  24. MN Transplant
    HRRR continues to advertise a later flip than the NAM. More like 15z/10am in DC. Rates are always important, but it’ll kill us if we lose the column by 7am.
  25. MN Transplant
    Looking great! Edit - Johnson City, TN is the line right now
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