MN Transplant

Yeah, a chilly day today with mid-50s, a breeze, and overcast.

9 at bats, 9 times on base. That is unreal.

Jamaica's coastline is relatively steep in most places, so the surge is less likely to be a concern. Rainfall and wind are the big-ticket items here. This is probably more akin to Maria in PR as anything else.

Depends on the location. Jamaica has mostly block structures, which is helpful, but how are the roofs going to fare if this does land as a Cat 4+? The wind will be very damaging to housing and infrastructure. The HAFS make me worry about Montego Bay on the NW side.

Have we ever seen a cat 5 hurricane make a massive change in direction while maintaining strength?

No, it was slightly below normal but nothing special. It was not colder than 2014-2015 or 2013-2014. They haven't updated the Winter column for 24-25, but you can do your own math: https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwitemps.pdf

Amazing that this thing is still 36+ hours from landfall.

IAD is perfectly situated in a little shallow bowl which promotes cold air drainage on calm nights. https://www.heywhatsthat.com/profiler.html - very old website that I still find useful sometimes. The change in color is at IAD, with a west to east profile.

I want them to 3-peat going into the 2026 lockout/strike so we get a salary cap/floor in MLB.

Wind. That's what defeats the warm river and the heat island. 39.0 for a low here on the west side of the DC Beltway.

First morning in the 30s at 39.6. Light frost in the favored lower elevation neighborhood spots.

39 degrees spread between high and low at IAD yesterday. They are now almost 9" below normal for the calendar year.

0.05”. Better than nothing as we transition back to dry.

A washout of a Halloween though.

Models are more than hinting about a deep trough crossing the country next week. No doubt that it would provide a good opportunity for rain.

That was a useful storm. 0.39" here. It was solid for the drier parts of the region while the wetter eastern parts got less.

The skinny line was worth about 0.10”. Hopefully can double that with the trailing region.

A rough 90-day stretch for many of us in VA and WV. An oddity - in my CoCoRahs record since 2014, the past three years have been the lowest year-to-date. 2023 recovered with a wet December, but 2024 didn't and finished as my driest year.

VT is a relatively small program compared to the others that you've listed, but that isn't necessarily a problem. I don't feel like meteorology has the same "ranking" hierarchy like law schools or business schools do. It is more about what skills you can develop. One thing to recognize is that meteorology has a very high "quit" ratio. A lot of students are attracted to it for all the same reasons why we are on this board, but the math and physics weeds out a lot of them, so it is always good to keep your options open. And with the job market the way it is and AI looming, the best candidates for jobs in the future in meteorology are probably going to be people that have diversified in some way. So, things like computing/AI, emergency management, energy, transportation, etc. The days of just getting a standard meteorology Bachelor's degree and then getting hired right away by the NWS or media is not dead, but a dwindling path.

0.08". The majority of models still give us some rain tomorrow. Otherwise, just dreary.

Sprinkles

The Dulles area has entered "severe drought". If this storm misses it would be extremely disappointing. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?VA

That's the best GEFS run so far for DC

We basically want the northern energy to capture the southern low as soon as possible. That keeps the pinwheeling cutoff mostly over land and drenches us. If the capture happens too late or the whole longwave pattern shifts a bit east, we may be mostly dry.

0.06" for my CoCoRahs report, and then got an additional ~0.08" with that last line. Hope the coastal pans out.