MN Transplant

Even better, here are the 10am obs from W/SW VA. Forget the p-type and look at the wind direction. The HRRR thinks that all of these locations should have E to SE winds right now. It just isn't handling the low correctly. So, it looks like the NAM is too cool ahead of the storm, but the HRRR isn't going to have the right track. It is better to have the track than the temps right now.

Yeah, no snow obs in grass. Here's a reason to still be positive. This is the mesoanalysis from SPC at 10am. Closed low in SW VA and NW NC with pressure falls in VA/NC and a convergence line south of Richmond. Here is the 14z HRRR at noon. Is there any world in which you can look at the current analysis and think that the low is going to be on the central WV/VA border?

Not for snow. I'm on a hill, so my low temps are lame in inversion situations but otherwise I'm in line with others. Hell, I pulled off 4" from March 2013 while it was raining in DC.

Hard to ignore that it is 10am and I'm already warmer than the 12z 3km NAM had me all day. Still hoping this sounding pans out.

41.3. Already warmer than the HRRR 42 at DCA. The torch is on.

35.2 HRRR just won’t give up

NAM 3km looks fine. On the 12km NAM, the striking thing is the below freezing temps down to 975mb. If that holds, it won’t matter a bit what the surface starts at.

00z HRRR held serve. It is on an island with wanting to keep the first low intact for much longer, leading to a warm ESE fetch. The other models all kill off that low early so that we get a nice track just S of Richmond. Sometimes the HRRR wins. I’m not betting on it here. 41.5/21

That’s still cooler than the HRRR

The multiple outside tosses to Cook from the 2 yard line drove me crazy! That is a much better play when everyone is spread out, not when the LBs are within 2 yards of the line of scrimmage!

Cough. My fitbit heart rate was elevated for the entire 4th Q and OT.

NorthArlington is right. The peak rates were tremendous, but not unprecedented. I hit around 10”/hr on my VP2, but I’ve seen that number before. The difference was the length of the high rates. Visibility was poor, like a good snowfall, but not a complete white-out blizzard. The other interesting part was that this was effectively one big cell. The other times that we get dumped on (eg. Lee in 2011 or Ellicott City) it is due to a training/redeveloping situation. This was just a monster rain-producing cell that moved through.

This is it. That was an amazing wall of water.

Feels like we just had a Spring shower move through. 58.6 and the sun is out.

64 at home. Same at DCA/IAD. Torch!

Highs: Feb 2010 Jan 2016 TS Lee remnants Sept. 2011 High wind day Mar. 2018 Winter 13-14 Lows: The hellish trio of summers (2010-2012) '11-'12 non-winter

I think I had given up on Boxing Day before others had, so I never really count that as a horrible miss. Plus, we were one year removed from 09-10. In March 2013 I squeezed out 4" and got the day off, so that wasn't as awful either. My disappointment was my second winter here ('05-'06). I thought I was going to get one of the classic noreasters that I'd watched on the Weather Channel for so many years. Instead, Feb. '06 came and it drizzled, snowed some overnight (8"), and then melted rapidly. What a dud after I had built up expectations for it.

NAM 3km continues to advertise a few rogue snow squalls later tomorrow. The HRRR isn't as sure that they get past the mountains, but preference to the northern areas for those that do.

Over 2” of precip in the last week or so. Soggy mess outside.

I think you have FCPS’s ear. Not even a delay so far this year.

0.10” precip, Trace of sleet/snow. All rain now and 33.7.

Finally got our nice day. 54.7 and sunny.

39.7 and rain. Awful day.

Very pleased with how well the snow cover held on in the shade. Less than a half inch of snow, highs topping 40, and yet there is still white on roofs and shaded grass.

12/11: 0.4"