LOL, no you definitely don't, I remember it well. I've been on here every day for weeks. When the trends stopped going in the right direction and models were still all over the place with the mix line I lowered my expectations quite a bit. This may be me seeing things that aren't there, but what I've noticed the past few years with setups where large amounts of sleet/zr are forecast is the 3k NAM tends to do pretty damn well with placing that feature. I think it was the late March 2018 storm where it was honking for sleet to move in much faster than most other guidance and sure enough... DC was forecast for something like 6-8" before the flip and ended up with about 1" of snow and 2" of sleet.
On your second point, I do find it pretty amazing. I've argued that our base state isn't what it used to be on here before.