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Volcanic Winter

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    Ocean & Union, NJ

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  1. So how much snow is that? With the sun beginning to angle down does that mean this could overperform?
  2. The system that moved through this morning was rather intense down by me. Couple cracks of thunder that shook the house and felt right above us. Tempest recorded it as a strike within 0-2 miles while almost everything else was more distal. Not much wind or any severe metrics, but there were a few serious cracks of thunder. .6 inches of rain too Nice event though, we needed it.
  3. I’ll volunteer for Kamchatka. Some very fascinating volcanoes there. I’m better built for the cold than the heat.
  4. I’m just outside Newark while at work and I concur 100%. Is it winter yet?
  5. Incredible presentation on radar with the boundaries present. Been sitting right over me for eons now.
  6. Sorry Snowman, just saw your tag. Yes, HTHH was an odd one, to say the least. On sheer explosive force alone it was unmatched back to Krakatau in the 1880’s (a moderately large VEI6 with surface cooling in the following years from volcanic aerosols). On volume, I’ve seen estimates that put it as a mid range VEI5 (5-8km^3) up to a decently sized VEI6 (~20km^3). Both, but especially the further you go toward the higher volume estimates are significant enough to produce volcanic cooling. The anomaly with HTHH is that it simply didn’t inject enough SO2 relative to its size and relative to similar eruptions, such as Pinatubo in 1991. That event put something like 40 times the amount of SO2 into the stratosphere and had a marked cooling effect for the the following several years. Some of the super storms in this time period, such as March 1993 are considered possibly linked to the eruption’s effects. There are other volcanic aerosols, but sulfur load in the stratospheric aerosol veil is the main or strongest component of volcanic cooling from a large eruption. It’s not a long duration effect (normally) as the sulfur reacts and eventually works itself out over the following couple years, largely ending the effect. Even stranger, HTHH put about 58,000 Olympic sized swimming pools of water vapor as high as the mesosphere, and I’m hearing the total amount added is something like 10% of the total that normally resides up in the stratosphere. That is *massive.* So yes, HTHH may end up having a paradoxical surface heating effect which would be the first time such an event happened in recorded modern history. After the initial large eruption the day before the final climactic blast to ~58km, the volcanic conduit was inundated with seawater at just the perfect depth to act as a pressure cooker to eject an enormous amount of water up above. It’s really very fascinating. These sorts of eruptions may not leave much of a trace in the long term records the way large ignimbrite eruptions do on land, so we may not even really understand how frequently they occur. Fascinating stuff all around. In short, this eruption was just about large enough to have some measurable downward forcing of surface temperatures, but what should’ve been the typical sulfur flux apparently reacted or leached into the ocean instead. So we’re left with a large eruption that could, warm things up? Very interested to find out when all is said and done. One last note, in one of the published bits of information I read that the huge water vapor influx may help reduce the level of atmospheric methane, which could offset the expected warming to some degree. I’m unaware of how that would work, exactly, but it’s interesting. Here’s a good source about volcanic cooling relative to 1991 Pinatubo: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo The mechanisms are similar for other large eruptions, though every volcano and eruption is unique and even things such as a local weather at the time can influence how climate forcings are felt later on. The most powerful “volcanic winter” of modern history is no doubt Tambora in 1815, leading to the serious climate anomalies of 1816. Highly recommend searching / reading about this if you’re intrigued. We’re talking a VEI 7 at over 100km^3 of tephra. So large it’s almost incomprehensible. And it wasn’t that long ago. Unlikely to see one again in our lifetimes, but one never knows! Chiles - Cerro Negro in South America is looking pretty scary over the past decade and especially the past several months. Large volcanic edifice with a likely evolved, silicic magma chamber that hasn’t apparently erupted in thousands of years. It’s looking like one might be coming. Might be, this stuff is tea leaves until it’s more or less imminent. But it could potentially be of the size and power that would do some interesting things to the climate, so it’s one I’m keeping an eye on. Reminds me a lot of the period before Pinatubo erupted, when they recognized the danger of the sleeping giant next door and gradually began to prepare. It may do nothing, of course. You guys are likely more accurate predicting the patterns and teleconnections for next winter than anyone trying to predict this stuff lol.
  7. What ultimate influence will this have on our winter patterns / temps / snowfall chances? I’m not extremely well read on the Indian Ocean Dipole. Thanks!
  8. HTHH only released about 400,000 tons of sulphur, most of what would’ve normally been released into the atmosphere leached and reacted into the ocean instead. Pinatubo released 19 million tons. The influence of volcanic ash and water vapor having an effect? Definitely. But the sulphur load was not high enough for a direct climate effect, or at least not one that’s easily measurable. Here’s a paper on it showing Pinatubo at 17Mt, but figures vary across sources. I’ve seen estimates up to 20Mt for Pinatubo. https://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/self/ Note that it lists the volume of the eruption at 5km^3 which is a DRE value (dense rock equivalent), to get the more usually given tephra value it’s multiplied by 2.5 which produces a small VEI 6 eruption (which of course is a very large event overall, just on the lowest end of the 6 scale). Edit: See here as well https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/natural-disasters/amp/sulphur-dioxide-from-caribbean-volcano-reaches-india-wmo-confirms-76547 The VEI 4 2021 eruption of Soufriere in the Caribbean released about 600,000 tons of SO2, which is more than HTHH. VEI 4’s do not typically cool the climate, that begins more at the high end of VEI 5 with commensurately high sulphur releases, which for several reasons HTHH lacked. All of this is not to say HTHH isn’t currently affecting the climate; it almost certainly is. This one’s just complicated, and I’m very curious to read a retrospective analysis in a year or two.
  9. It was very large with estimates of a high VEI 5 to low 6 (about 6km^3 of material up to 15ish or so km^3). Pinatubo was roughly 11 - 12 km^3, a low end 6. But both Novarupta in 1912 and Krakatau in 1886 were up to 30km^3 of material, and Tambora in 1815 was an enormous VEI 7 with over 100km^3 of volcanic material. It was a very, very large event with respect to modern times, but it is handily eclipsed going back a hundred to a couple hundred years. The absolute highest value for HTHH I’ve seen backed by a paper was about 20km^3, but that appears to be a high end outlier. And to reiterate, it was quite sulphur poor as the majority of SO2 leached into the ocean instead of being blasted into the stratosphere where it would have a cooling effect. Only about 1/40th of the stratospheric SO2 release of Pinatubo was measured, and Pinatubo reduced temperatures by about 1-2 degrees F (and also masked sea level rise by quite a bit, a separate but equally interesting topic to research. Edit: added a link to an article about this at the end). There are other volcanic particulates than can induce cooling that HTHH released, but I’m more intrigued by the massive release of water vapor. That is not typical and as mentioned could have a warming effect. Regardless, some instability in the climate system upwards or downwards with respect to temperature and patterns seems to be a given. edit: Here is an article written by a university professor regarding Pinatubo’s influence on the oceans. It’s very fascinating. https://www.volcanocafe.org/when-pinatubo-turned-the-tide/
  10. Recently upgraded to a high VEI 5 to potentially a 6, it’s about at the size where a real climate impact is possible. However, it only released a fraction of the sulphur load into the stratosphere that Pinatubo did, as most of it apparently leached / reacted into the ocean instead. Still, there are more volcanic particulates involved and there have been documented volcanic sunsets around the globe including in the northern hemisphere. It’s just odd that normally an eruption of this size, AFAIK, generally keeps its effects within the same hemisphere. Perhaps because the column reached, absurdly, into the mesosphere? A geophysicist/volcanologist I follow believes it will / and is currently impacting the climate system. I’m curious to see if anything is ultimately linked to it. Pinatubo caused a significant impact for the following several years in the early - mid 1990’s but was far more sulphur rich.
  11. I hit 47.9 down south here last night. Pretty insane, actually.
  12. Just hit 56.4. I am actually curious how low I go tonight. For living relatively far south down in Toms River, I live in a cold pocket on the western inland edge of the town. All winter I hit lower lows than the official station which is a few miles east of me.
  13. 57.7 on my Tempest right now. Ocean Co. This weather is amazing. Made me think of winter and compelled me to read through the rest of May and all June's threads today, lol. Is it winter yet?
  14. The EF3 tornado in Mullica Hills NJ last September 1st was mind blowing. It definitely can happen, albeit rare for such a powerful tornado to form here. That thing looked like a Deep South multi vortex wedge; insane.
  15. As an ode to my username, it’s very interesting that recent analyses are concluding that Hunga Tonga actually was a very large VEI 5 to even potentially VEI 6 Pinatubo sized eruption. That would’ve been enough to have a very substantial climate impact, had Hunga Tonga not released only about 1/40th of the sulfur as Pinatubo. Looks like the majority of it leached /reacted into the ocean instead of being blasted into the stratosphere. Pinatubo is the only modern eruption to cause a volcanic winter (to a lesser extent El Chicón as well), would’ve been very interesting to see how a similarly sized eruption would impact the current climate with 30 years of additional warming. Pinatubo was something like a -1.5F anomaly overall. Pinatubo even cooled SST’s for a few years. When I have time I can pull up a very interesting article from a physicist I follow about this if anyone were interested.
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