high risk
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some of the guidance shows good lapse rates developing as the upper trough swings east, but others delay the mid-level cooling, leading to the crappy lapse rates that SPC mentioned in their initial day 2 outlook. The revised day 2 outlook, though, is very encouraging and while it's unclear if they're talking about the mid-Atlantic, they do mention supercell and attendant tornado threat in the east. As I mentioned earlier, the wind fields will definitely be strengthening later Thursday afternoon, so if we can get some local backing of low-level winds near boundaries, storm rotation is on the table.
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Would love to see better lapse rates tomorrow for sure, but there are still a number of things to like. This is an anomalously strong June trough arriving at the right time of day. (We did really well with good dynamics on June 2). As a result, while the surface winds may be too weak or veered for widespread supercells, the overall wind profile is impressive, and the lift will be strong. Most CAMs show full heating tomorrow with temps approaching 90. There will be storms, and there is a good chance that at least some of them will be SVR. It's a SLGT day for sure, but in terms of what we need for ENH potential, the NAM nest mid-level temps are a bit cooler than the HRRR and would allow for more instability. And the best wind fields will overspread our area more towards 23z, so later initiation would be helpful - the low-level shear will really improve towards 00z if any storms are still around.
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I see lots of giving up on today's storms, but the HRRR (and NAM nest) continue to blow up a lot of storms for the area over the next few hours as the forcing from the shortwave arrives, and boundaries become active.
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guidance has the southern areas getting hit with the greatest coverage of storms. that has nothing to do with severe potential. any storms to the northeast will be in a better environment for svr; it's just the the best threat may be more towards PHL and NJ.
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should be feeling the influence of that arriving shortwave over the next few hours, but as the MPD notes, the guidance really likes DC and points south (maybe we can say Rockville to Columbia and points south, based on HRRR trends?) for the most coverage. Maybe not looking so good for north-central MD.
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Even if we came up a degree or two short of the convective temp, most of the CAMs show a modest shortwave approaching later this afternoon, which (assuming it's real) will certainly get the initiation job done. Without full surface heating, the about of instability probably won't be sufficient for widespread severe (although I won't rule out a few wet microbursts), but heavy rainers seem pretty likely with the high PWs
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I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way. But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC. The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.
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had some impressive downburst winds here in the College Park area.
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# GFScancel
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someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.
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Yeah, while I do think we'll have some SVR today, the 12z NAM for Thursday would be a TOR day if its solution is correct.
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Seems pretty likely that we'll wake up Sunday morning to a slight risk. Good instability + good deep layer shear + likely initiation puts us in the game for sure. Waking up Sunday to a SLGT for Monday seems quite plausible too.
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Dynamics, ftw!
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00z NAM nest really, really backed off on the 850 wind field - not sure yet if it's a blip or a legit trend. still possible that we see a few stronger wind gusts in late day convection Thursday. While the instability is going to be really meager, these strongly-forced events can occasionally surprise. It would help if the NAM nest is correct with more organized storms holding off until really late in the day, giving the maximum amount of time for moisture recovery and mid-level cooling.
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New NAM nest still has north winds at DCA at 2pm Thursday. HRRR is a little quicker with the turn around back to southwest.
