Welcome to American Weather

high risk

Meteorologist
  • Content count

    989
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About high risk

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

Recent Profile Visitors

993 profile views
  1. FWIW, with all of this concern about what's dying out as it comes east this evening, most hi-res guidance correctly shows this first batch falling apart as it comes east, with a more pronounced line later tonight. It's best depicted in the 18z NAM nest.
  2. The problem with the rain potential is that it originally looked like we'd get some overrunning followed by a few hours in the frontal band, but it's turning out to be a quick hitter with a window of a few hours late at night. I still think that a lot of people will see heavy rain; it will just be very fast-moving and subject to runoff. You're correct that we rarely score on these fall high shear/low cape events, but the forecast soundings suggest that mixing some of those stronger wind speeds down the ground isn't a total pipe dream.
  3. Marginal risk from SPC for overnight Monday. Looks like a convective line will roll through in the middle of the night or very early morning. There are some impressive winds above the surface, but as is common here with fall events, there may not be much if any instability to take advantage. Still, there may be a little bit of sfc-based cape to work with, so the 5% area for now looks reasonable.
  4. Ah wedge, you are such a tricky beast. Still think we're going to bust out this afternoon, but it's sure taking its sweet time.....
  5. The 06z NAM would be the ideal weenie solution. The arrival of Nate would be delayed here until Monday afternoon, and we would heat into the 80s before the strong wind fields and lift arrive. The more progressive solutions bring the remnants through much earlier, and we have no sfc-based instability to take advantage of the impressive wind fields above. Of course, at this point, I'll just be happy with a good soaking.
  6. Bingo! just piecing together the maps of the different levels, an impressive shear profile would be in place with some instability and low LCLs.
  7. agreed, and the shear is decent too. The only thing lacking is more instability, as low-level moisture is only modest, so the cape is tall and skinny. if we had 70's dew points, this would be an enhanced day.
  8. As modeled by the 12z GFS, there would be a significant tornado threat in our area (our at least just southeast of here).
  9. I don't think we're picking on it, per se. It's clearly going to intensify a LOT. We're just trying to understand how a global model is dropping the central pressure into the 880s.
  10. It's worth remembering that the recent GFS upgrade makes it so that the SST is allowed to warm during the day and then return to the base state at night. Some (but not all) of the largest 6-hr pressure falls are occurring during the day.
  11. well, I talked up the Saturday evening potential, and I'm going to officially cancel it now. warm sector will be confined way southeast of DC Metro
  12. Yes, I think there is some thunder potential Saturday evening, even on the cool side of the boundary.
  13. I mentioned this in the regular September discussion last night, but it belongs here too: [ But the evening hours (Saturday) may have sneaky potential, especially in southern MD. A warm front will be lifting into the area, and the NAM nest has a convective line along the cold front. Enough low-level warm air could get into southern MD to make things interesting, given the decent wind field that will be in place. ] SPC does have a marginal risk not too far southeast of our area and some interesting discussion.
  14. Absolutely. Zero chance of anything severe in the chilly early morning. But the evening hours may have sneaky potential, especially in southern MD. A warm front will be lifting into the area, and the NAM nest has a convective line along the cold front. Enough low-level warm air could get into southern MD to make things interesting, given the decent wind field that will be in place.
  15. might be more like 50's and 60's for the daytime.....