high risk

So, we had wondered the about the possibility of a spinup or two Friday night in the strongly sheared environment with low LCLs. it obviously didn't work out here, but the same concept of a favorable environment did come together better in eastern NJ early Saturday. This video captures one of the short-lived EFOs (warning: language)

I'm out for the late tonight event. It's still *possible* that we get a spinup or two, I suppose, but the hi-res guidance just doesn't look very impressive. I see no updraft helicity signatures in the HRRR, and the NAM nest has little precip in DC metro. (The Hi-res windows at least have precip for DC and points north). The best chance for SVR might be a couple of isolated cells during the late evening; it's suggested by the Hi-Res Window ARW, although shear is marginal as the better wind fields haven't arrived.

It's true that the 8z sounding posted by Yoda is "contaminated", in the sense that convection is underway at that site when that profile is extracted, so you've modified the low-level wind field and moistened the low levels. In that sense, bovi (can I call u that for short? ) is correct that it's not representative of the broader, pre-convective environment we want to assess. When I pick a sounding to assess convective potential, I try to grab one right before precip arrives at that location. All that said, there IS decent low-level shear and modest instability before the convection arrives, and others have correctly noted the low LCLs, so it warrants watching. It's interesting that the NAM nest keeps us in the low 80's through Friday night which helps us squeak out some cape. If we cool much more than that, it will probably be tough to get surface-based storms. At this point, my curiosity level is raised, but I'm not yet in.

agree. not even sure we'll have thunder, as there really isn't much instability. and a few (albeit outlier) solutions don't get everyone wet.

as currently modeled, no. The GFS, however, still breaks out some convection.

The NAM nest definitely ramps up a threat Friday night. Instability is limited, but the low-level shear is pretty fantastic. There is an 80 kt LLJ just south of DC. There is probably little margin for error with the placement of the Cindy remnants, so the next run could take away with the 00z cycle giveth, but it warrants watching. As others have noted, the parameters are good Friday afternoon, but there probably isn't a trigger.

you can see new storms firing along the outflow boundary just north of the DC Beltway

Your point is well-taken, but while I agree that the timing of the front has been very steady, some guidance has been breaking out storms well out ahead of the primary forcing, and a few of the solutions have emphasized those as the primary storms, and they're somewhat scattered. Even the solutions that bring a huge line through have a couple of cells out ahead; they just don't screw up the main show. That said, I'm in for tomorrow. I think I favor the idea of a severe squall line impacting much of the area; even if the early initiation with scattered cells solution is right (and I'm leaning against this scenario), there would still be severe.

seems pretty clear-cut that timing is the key tomorrow. NAM nest and HRRRX delay most or all of the activity and sweep a nice line through the area with an environment favorable for damaging winds. The hi-res windows break out storms much earlier, and the result is much less coverage along the I-95 corridor.

I totally understand the pessimism for today through Sunday, although I think that Monday has a good chance at widespread storms.

Yeah, it did seem like the core passed just southeast of Columbia. Really impressive here.

was definitely in a good spot today. Got the heart of the core here in southern Howard County. I didn't get the 1" hail that BWI reported, but winds easily gusted in the 45-50 mph range and it was a deluge. looking ahead, Monday's wind profile suggests a somewhat common westerly flow at all levels with increasing speeds with height profile which can do well here if you don't wipe out the low-level moisture.

This is spot-on. If heating were to occur, it could be an interesting late day/evening, but that seems unlikely unless you go west (and maybe a fair distance west??) of DC.

I'm rapidly losing interest in Saturday. The setup seemed promising with a NW-SE boundary in place across the area, but every hi-res run I've seen this morning (NAM nest, Hi-Res Windows, HRRRX) brings a dying MCS through here during the morning or midday hours, and it kills our instability and refocuses the late afternoon activity well south of here. Would need a big change in guidance this evening to restore hope.

it has been hinted at in the LWX AFD, but the "problem" is that the deep layer shear starts going rapidly downhill after 21z. Perhaps there is a window between 20-22z (especially east of town) during which favorable shear/instability will overlap.