high risk

I think that Friday has some potential here - not talking outbreak, but there could be a number of reports if things come together. Looks like dew points will reach the upper 70s, leading to 3000+ cape. Shear won't be amazing, but it is progged to come up later in the day into the range where svr becomes possible. Extended NAM nest reflectivity right now looks good.

You can always count on the Canadian model for pure, hardcore entertainment during tropical season.

Oops. You are correct! I was a year early - thanks!

1) 9/24/01 tornado. The tornado that hit College Park then moved northeast, and I happened to be in downtown Laurel and was in a perfect spot to watch it go by 1/2 mile to my west. My view was similar to this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMyTosoYGpc 2) The derecho. Was living in south Laurel and got crushed but never lost power. 3) The 6/25-26/06 deluge. A slow moving wall of water moved across the area Sunday late afternoon through early Monday with widepsread 4-8" totals and nearly 10" over 3 days at DCA. Insane rain rates - I ended up with over 8" for a 2-day period. There were worries that the Pax River dam was going to break. 4) 6/2/97 supercells. Saw a wall cloud over DC and later got golf balls in Laurel. A long-track violent tornado after dark tracked through western MD. 5) Isabel. Plenty has been said about that storm - I lost power for 3 days. 6) 6/2/08 - Severe line of storms in early afternoon with several weak tornadoes in the area, and a second low-topped line with severe winds in the evening. The initial line left an outflow boundary across central VA and southern MD where tornadic supercells tracked.

terrific discussion indeed, and the referenced deformation zone with strong convergence is showing up nicely on radar.

NAM nest still looks interesting, but the 6z cycle moved the location of interest further south. The HRRR keeps the heating zone further south as well, and it now doesn't fire any convection during those evening hours. It seems that areas north of a line from Alexandria to Deale have little SVR threat; areas to the south (and perhaps quite a bit to the south) have a modest chance of SVR perhaps during the main batch of precip during the early afternoon and then a conditional risk if storms fire again in the early evening.

Got drowned in southern Howard County. Not to criticize LWX (too much), but their 30 PoPs the past few days have ended up awfully on the low side.

eastern PG / northern AA FTW!

damn. it cranked up about a mile to my northeast. Got some pity drops and loud thunder.

Extremely well-defined outflow boundary pushing south and west out of Baltimore with lots of convection forming along and immediately behind it. Keep dropping south, baby!

Definitely Baltimore, and recent trends have looked better for DC, but activity should be somewhat more scattered the further southwest one goes. The last HRRR even has some activity this evening in northern VA.

Radar so far here on Wednesday afternoon is confirming the NAM nest/HRRR idea that chances of storms go up a lot the further north and northeast of DC that one goes.

There is some sort of vort over Delaware right now. I'm in Ocean City, and the trailing band on the pseudo-mesoscale cold front was like a tropical storm band

This is fantastic. I crossed Kent Island today on my way to the beach, and it's very obvious where the tornado crossed Rt 50, with sheared-off trees on both sides of the road.

It should also be noted that the deep layer shear as well as the downdraft cape today are much better than they were during the weekend. The question is obviously how much coverage of storms there will be as the upper trough axis approaches. The best dynamics are north of here, so I don't think we'll have widespread storms, but any that form certainly have the potential to produce some wind damage.e