high risk

Feel like we have to hash this out every time, but the NCEP models generate a snow water equivalent that is generated from all frozen hydrometeors (snow + sleet). TT then applies a 10:1 ratio to that, which does not work if you have a good amount of sleet. But TT also displays total positive snow depth change which is what the model actually thinks is accumulating on the ground. It sometimes runs a bit low, but it's WAY, WAY more representative of the model is doing in this mix (or wet snow) events.

for a day or two, until it's confirmed that the implementation "worked", but it won't be available to the public

NAM wants to bring a quick shot of mess through the area Sunday afternoon. NAM nest is not on board.

Yes, that is the current target.

If he did, he is wrong.

see Eskimo Joe's latest post. It is indeed fine in the southeast part of the county, but it's a massive mess in the other half. Lots of stuff on the school system FB page of cars and busses having to navigate around downed trees and overall icy conditions.

the county school system made an awful call to only have 2 hour delay today. It's fine here in the southeast part of the county, but it's a massive mess in the northwest half. But they got skewered in the press for closing yesterday and swung the pendulum too far back the other way today

If the GFS is right about the front returning north on Thursday, we have a legit shot to hit 70.

can't disagree. the hi-res models just aren't meant for short-range details of winter snow bands; they're meant for deep convection. the radar reflectivity assimilation doesn't work properly with low dbz stuff.

very meh right now but should be improving shortly.

HRRR suggests a midday break and then perhaps another very light round of snow this afternoon

If I'm reading the AFD correctly, LWX is going to issue a winter weather advisory for DC/Baltimore metro.

yes, but of the models that generate snow, most have it starting during the morning commute. That's the point.

this is going to make for another super challenging decision for schools, as if it does snow, it will fall during the morning rush. We're obviously talking about small amounts, but even a dusting would cause road issues with these temps.

can you please be more specific when identifying the 'WRF'? Since you're referring to TT, I assume you're talking about one of the three hires windows, labeled as WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, and WRF-NMM (which should be labeled NMMB, but that's another issue).