high risk
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not much to add - just one more huge thumbs up for this lightning show.
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terrific question. While most of the CAMs had some cells erupting in IL before 00z, there was some consensus that the biggest contributor to an MCS approaching the Appalachians tomorrow morning would be storms that fired in central IL this evening. And that development (while not SVR so far) appears to be underway, so it may still be on track. That said, that morning MCS tomorrow could end up further south than expected, although I'd still be concerned about the cloud shield further north.
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I'm definitely not ready to be in for this. I do understand the SPC optimism based on the shear and the arrival of a well-timed vort. But I don't like that multiple CAMs show an MCS coming out of OH later tonight and then falling apart as it approaches around midday tomorrow. To be fair, the models that have that scenario do develop another round of convection later in the day, and it could certainly be severe, but we usually run into instability problems in those events due to the cloud shield or, in the worst case scenario, sfc outflow. I still think we can score on either 1) the original midday/early afternoon line or 2) new development later in the day , but I need to see the later CAM solutions look more favorable.
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As always, we have these days when the guidance consistently shows multiple rounds, and some people start crying 'bust' when round 1 misses them.
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I have no disagreement with the MRGL outlook. The soundings certainly support at least some downburst potential. If the NAM nest is correct with the amount of organization and resulting strong cold pool, we'd require a SLGT, but that simulation may be overdone.
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While I do think we'll reach the convective temp, I'm not sure how relevant that is today. The hi-res guidance shows a bunch of storms firing out over the terrain to our west, driven by local circulations and enhanced by the approaching shortwave. While I'd like to see the HRRR as aggressive as the NAM, I feel pretty good about storm chances today, especially for those along and north of 66 in VA and 50 in MD on the west side of the bay.
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really impressive lightning show to my southeast on that northern PG County cell
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not quite severe here in College Park but pretty damn close
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It's the likelihood of rainfall exceeding FFG, and FFG over part of our ahead is 1-2" in a 3h period, so I would agree that there is a 20-50% (as defines the MDT risk) of that happening within 25 miles of a point in the MDT zone.
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over 200 wind reports in the MRGL area. Boxes definitely would have been justified in MD and OH. and thanks! The HREF is an underutilized tool on this board, but its probabilities are being generated by aggregating several really good CAMs, so it's almost always worth a look.
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from https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href
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6z NAM3 looked really good for mid-evening MCS, but the 12z has the storms weakening hard as they arrive. HRRR isn't as excited. That said, the HREF 4-hr probs of reflectivity exceeding 40 dbz within 20 km of a point for the late afternoon /early evening period over most of northern and central MD are upwards of 70%
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Slight risk today. The CAMs are not in much agreement concerning coverage, but they generally agree on a 4-7pm window. (HRRR wants to initiate locally around 3pm). Looks like better coverage in MD than VA. Shear is not great (it’s lousy on the HRRR), but with the instability, several CAMs show marginal shear for some wind threat.
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CAMs have been very consistent that coverage would be limited. That said, the HRRR has shown for several consecutive cycles now that storms will affect DC and points south and east over the next few hours.
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The HRRR has been saying for a while now that if you live more than a small distance north or west of I-95 in MD, you're pretty much done for today.
