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high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. January Discobs Thread

    caught some really nice iridescence late Saturday afternoon.
  2. January Discobs Thread

    agree with this. strong deep-layer shear profile in place (limited low-level shear) with some heating ahead of a possible narrow midday squall line
  3. Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc

    HRRRX (being implemented in May) keeps the snow going across southern MD through the entire morning Wednesday. I think that someone earlier mentioned that the Canadian ensemble suggested a longer duration event?? QPF is still not great, but a slower trend is something to watch for.
  4. January Discobs Thread

    Weak band moving through southern Howard County right now. Flakes in the air
  5. Jan 8th Ice/Mix/Rain Event

    The RAP and HRRR tend to be too aggressive with mixing and often scour out low-level cold air too quickly. In the Dec 2016 ice event, they consistently warmed our area into the 40s when we were stuck at freezing. The NAM nest is usually much better with low-level cold air, but it can actually keep it in too long. Granted, the Dec 16 event was a much bigger storm, and no two cases are the same, but I’d probably lean NAM nest for this one, especially over central MD
  6. JAN 4th Coastal

    Your plot is the ESRL run; mine is the official NCEP parallel. ESRL does plot the NCEP (EMC) version on their page. The two should be fairly similar, but there will be some diffs.
  7. JAN 4th Coastal

    Fair question, and the labels could be better, but it's 0.10"
  8. JAN 4th Coastal

    The next version of the HRRR (implementation late spring) will extend to 36h at 00,06,12,18z. Here is precip from the 12z run this morning. A little better on the west side of DC.
  9. JAN 4th Coastal

    No. The 3 km and 12 km are different versions. The 32 km is the 12 km version interpolated to a coarser output grid.
  10. New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

    It's probably dumb of me to parse details this far out, but Monday morning would likely have significant icing potential, especially if the rain moves in early. This would be one of those events in which, even if the air temp is at 32/33, the surface temps will be far colder.
  11. Jan 4th Coastal

    The ARW SREF members have a known bias to overamplify the living hell out of systems. In the Jan 2016 storm, most of those members brought large snow totals well northwest of where they were observed.
  12. New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

    It's been noted previously, but this run emphasizes that even without a direct impact to the big cities, the cold air will be pouring in behind this storm. The mid-Atlantic and northeast are going to be stupid cold on Friday.
  13. Saturday December 30 Snow Obs and Disco

    Is that the rule now? That actually does ring a bell. Still wish they would emphasize that untreated roads tomorrow morning will be a mess.
  14. Saturday December 30 Snow Obs and Disco

    LWX has the WWA where they expect 1-2", but they should probably bring it further south. Even places that only get a dusting will have hazardous road conditions with the extremely cold temperatures.
  15. Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

    The NAM upgrade was in late March 2017.