high risk

yeah, the shear profiles for later Tuesday have so much potential, but over the years, I've seen a ton of great fall setups fail here due to terrible lapse rates and instability. Any system at this time of year that is strong enough to have great accompanying wind fields usually generates a lot of cloud cover and showers well out ahead of the front.

I can actually say that I saw the 2001 tornado as it moved through Laurel. No one had cell phone cameras back then, so I have no pictures, but my view was very similar to this one: I'm definitely intrigued by the Tuesday potential, although fall events here are so tough to pull off due to limited instability.

He assisted at the cleanup at the Maryland Fire and Rescue Institute which was heavily damaged and suffered a heart attack while driving home that evening. Who knows if he would have suffered the cardiac episode had he not been at the scene.....

I'd love to see what the models actually look like today, as WPC has some big totals for our area in the next 24 hours and a SLGT risk for flash flooding overnight.

yeah, CAMs have a good signal for storms later this afternoon, mainly for DC and points south. As SPC notes, instability is weak, but shear is fairly good, and the forecast soundings show some good DCAPE, so I guess I agree that some gusty winds are possible.

Hello, SPC? Hello? Time to get that box issued.

I think you're in as good of a location as any. I'm very bullish on the SVR threat today, just more bearish than most on the tornado threat (although I think that a TOR watch will be and should be issued). The 18z LWX sounding should be a big help in understanding the magnitude of the threat.

it really is, although kmlwx and I are not quite in lock step today.....

I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat. There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me. We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection.

Many things to like about Thursday afternoon, but I'd sure like to see some stronger 10m wind speeds. There will be mesos for sure, but we need some better speeds at the sfc to really get a legit TOR event.

I don't really understand why the line was so meh. The 00z IAD sounding isn't bad. Maybe the CAPE is a bit tall and skinny, and deep layer shear is marginal, but I would have expected an organized line like that to have a lot more wind.

So the box is out...... but it's BLUE. I guess I'm not surprised (that it's not a red box) given the linear evolution, but the shear parameters argue that a few embedded mesos are quite possible.

SPC Mesoanalysis shows the supercell composite here increasing to 8 here over the next couple of hours. Given that and most of the CAMs showing convection developing by now, I'm assuming that's why they went with such high watch probs. I'd think that the convection to the west should do better as it moves east into the better environment, but we'll see.

Yeah, I'm a bit surprised, and I think that SPC is too. Latest HRRR still suggests that the convection firing near the I-81 corridor will still become a bigger deal further east in a few hours.

I only had to whine for 23 hours before SPC finally put us in the SLGT risk we warranted.