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high risk

Meteorologist
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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. high risk

    July Discobs Thread

    The last 2 NAM nest cycles do drop a small line segment south towards DC during the early evening hours.
  2. high risk

    July Discobs Thread

    north-central/northern MD isn't going to do well based on radar. I misspoke earlier when I said that the line in southern PA matched the NAM3. The NAM3 correctly fired new convection right along the I-95 corridor. The HRRR has been kind of sparse today.
  3. high risk

    July Discobs Thread

    liking the squall line forming over southern PA/northwest MD. fits well with the NAM3.
  4. high risk

    July Discobs Thread

    The axis from Rockville down to Manassas just lit up!
  5. high risk

    July Discobs Thread

    yes, but the HRRR has a high bias for precip/reflectivity. The HRRRX brings that down, but in the process of eliminating some of the false alarms, it occasionally loses a "real" event.
  6. high risk

    July Discobs Thread

    the HRRR looks really good tonight, especially for the western side of DC. It's interesting, though, that the HRRRX (which becomes the HRRR next week) is not nearly as excited. Radar seems to suggest that the operational HRRR is on the right track, but we'll see.....
  7. high risk

    July Discobs Thread

    NAM3 and HRRR both want to develop a few storms along the I-95 corridor by early afternoon - let's see if they are on to something.
  8. high risk

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    wind profiles are progged to be fairly decent as we approach evening.
  9. high risk

    June Discobs Thread

    Not sure I agree. Saturday still has moderate instability with big PWs. If you look at the GFS, it looks "rainy", but it still has temps in the 80s. The details on the NAM3 suggest a convective element, so there will likely be some major rainers. Sunday is the cool (almost chilly), raw, showery day.
  10. high risk

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    Thank you. The transition from SVR to flooding occurred a little earlier than I was thinking, but the excellent hi-res guidance definitely steered me in the right direction.
  11. high risk

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    I do like seeing the HRRR get a line into our area, and the forecast soundings suggest that it would have severe potential. But one threat that appears more emphatically in the HRRR is significant rainfall from training convection over locations north of the DC Beltway.
  12. high risk

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    I do, as the NAM3 wants to bring an organized line in from the north into an environment with strong instability (due to impressive lapse rates) and modest deep layer shear. The shear is certainly better further north, but it would be sufficient this far south IF the extreme instability is realized.
  13. high risk

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    The wind fields up there are better, so I can see what they've highlighted that area, but we're going to have better instability (4000 sfc-based cape, per the NAM), and the CAMS have a nice squall line signal here too, so I'm perfectly fine with being in "only" the slight risk for now.
  14. high risk

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    I know. I was in Norman last week, and I've returned now for what will be 4 straight days of impressive storms here (and 5 of the last 6 days).
  15. high risk

    2018 Mid-Atlantic General Severe Discussion

    what's crazy is that the overall setup for later Tuesday actually looks as good or even better. Could be intense squall line (avoiding overuse of the D word), part 2.
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