high risk

very pleasantly surprised to get a heavy shower. All of the guidance I had seen today had this activity dying out well before reaching the I-95 corridor.

still a fair amount of model support for a Delmarva landfall, including the 18z HMON and HWRF

I'm not ready to buy in to heavier rain making it back to the I-95 corridor, but I'm definitely not ruling it out. The NAM nest is certainly most aggressive, but there is some support from other CAMs for the precip bands extending further west, although even those solutions make it clear that the NAM nest is too fast. It's also worth noting that the GFS tends to not generate sufficient precip on the west side of east coast storms, although there is more evidence for that with winter storms than with tropical hybrids.

Watching the 5th good cell today miss me by a couple of miles. Still stuck at a trace.

Yeah, this is comedy watching the whiffs here today. HRRR still says I get soaked in a few hours. Debating whether to water the garden.....

Exact same situation here just down the road. I rarely get pissed off at the weather. Right now, I'm really pissed off at the weather.

looking out my window here in Howard County, it looks like the atmosphere is trying to initiate locally

really need some patience. The CAMs were not forecasting an early show here. It will take time for the PA/NJ complex outflow to surge west and southwest, with development building along it back into northeast MD. There is still a legit question of whether there will be decent coverage in the DC/Baltimore corridor, but IF it happens, it won't be for several hours (and could even be an evening show).

No doubt that the eastern shore is the best place to be for organized SVR later today. For those west of the bay, we need the outflow to surge further west. It's worth noting that both the NAM nest and HRRR don't have too many storms in the DC area, as they both mix out the dew points a bit this afternoon. (HRRR is most aggressive.) Some of the other CAMs (the ARW2 of particular note) do not mix out the low-level moisture as much, as they have more coverage of storms west of the bay.

outflow made it all the way down to southern Howard County. Really nice!

Somewhat brief but torrential here in southern Howard too.

Thanks again for posting this. Tropical Tidbits has now corrected their plotting error as of the 18z cycle today.

great catch! If you look at the Tropical Tidbits 24h precip maps, it looks pretty clearly that the site is accidentally aggregating 24h totals, so I think it's a plotting error (or an error in the grib2 files) and not a new "biblical wet bias" in the new version.

12z NAM nest and HRRR both develop storms Saturday in the local area. Instability is limited, and shear is marginal, but there will be a lot of downdraft cape. Personally, I'm not very enthused, because the low level air will be so dry, but I'm ok with the MRGL. Sunday could be good if we lose the ugly warm mid-level temperatures being progged.

The one thing we had yesterday that we hadn't had here in a while was good flow aloft on a storm day. We had about 90 kt at jet level Thursday afternoon.