high risk
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yeah, surprised we haven't even seen an MD down there yet.
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Ya know, I've been saying that we need to make round 1 wimpy to increase our chances with round 2, but maybe there is some tornado potential in our area with round 1? The shear profiles won't be as good as they will be later in the day, but they'll be decent, and we'll actually have better low-level instability.
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I still think that the key is how widespread the wave of early-mid afternoon showers (storms?) is. HRRR is pretty aggressive with it, and the model takes us from that 73-75 range back to the upper 60s later in the day when the better forcing and best wind profiles arrive. If we can avoid widespread cooling with round 1, I think we're in much better shape for round 2.
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not to split hairs, but at least the 13z outlook gets the entire region into 2% tornado probabilities. The initial outlook with <2% made no sense. I was bullish on my tornado probs last night, but with some indication now that there will be an early afternoon wave of showers, this may hurt our better instability later in the day and lead to slightly elevated storms with less tornado potential (but certainly heavy rain potential).
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NAM nest seems like an outlier with only a mid-evening show. 00Z HRRR and current and earlier hi-res windows all support a late afternoon round 1 and then an evening round 2. There is still some healthy disagreement on whether the low-level shear is sufficiently "good" by late afternoon or if the better shear sets up after dark, but I would certainly expect a 5% tornado outlook in the early morning Day 1.
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I'll agree with the props to LWX for the synopsis. Looking at the early components of the 00z suite, the HRRR wants to initiate some convection during the late afternoon in the area that would have slightly better low-level instability to work with than later storms - this might be an earlier show, with lesser severe potential later at night. The NAM nest avoids the earlier convection and has the show all being later at night, with an ominous radar showing cells and line segments. That said, the cape is very tall and skinny, which reduces the severe potential at least a little, but the low-level shear is still very impressive.
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I was looking at it when you posted. Sunday night could be very, very interesting around here. As I noted earlier, the NAM keeps temps well up in the 60s Sunday night, so the usual big drop in overnight instability here won't be an issue. While the overall wind profiles have some veer-back-veer in them (which can limit the ability of cells to stay discrete), and the cape is a bit "tall and skinny", the low-level shear looks truly outstanding, and the NAM NEST certainly suggests some cells out ahead of the main line. Tomorrow's day 2 for Sunday/Sunday night will almost certainly extend slight risk into our area, and it could end up as an enhanced risk.
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The overnight threat Sunday could materialize better than overnight threats usually do here if the NAM is correct. It shows strong southerly winds keeping temperatures here in the upper 60s through the night.
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It does, but look at the 2m dewpoint field. It has dew points rocketing up into the 62-64 range as the precip approaches which allows it to blow up the convection. Actual dew points have been falling this afternoon, more in line with what the HRRR is showing.
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The key for today appears to be the low-level dew points. NAM3 moistens us all afternoon, we end up with low/mid 60s dew points by late afternoon and a pretty unstable atmosphere. HRRR mixes and advects some low dew point air into our region during the afternoon, and we end up in the low 50s by late afternoon.
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yeah, I could have clarified, although the NAM3 only goes to f60...... But while Friday does have some potential, I am talking about today.
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I had been "way out" on this event, but the 12z NAM3 is making me reconsider, with some impressive signatures much further north than in previous runs along with greater instability and a shear profile that is lacking in low-level shear but would have decent deep-layer shear with a modest increase in sfc winds. This solution is an outlier for now, but I'll be curious to see whether the HRRR trends in its direction.
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HRRR soundings showing about 500 sfc-based cape, and SPC has added our area into general thunder. Will certainly be interesting convection around this afternoon.
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very low freezing levels. definitely possible.
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Friday afternoon could be a bit fun as the strong vort approaches. Convective showers are likely, and with very steep lapse rates, it looks like a few folks could see some lightning.
