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high risk

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  1. Pretty clear trend in the guidance for a further west track which will knock down rain totals for those of us along the I-95 corridor. It does, however, open the door for a TOR threat, although instability may be too meager to take advantage of the very strong low-level shear.
  2. Yeah, the timing is better, and instability therefore looks ever-so-slightly better. There will pretty clearly be a line of strong convection just ahead of the front. Whether it will contain lightning or be surfaced-based is unclear. Some of the CAMs even suggest some discrete cells in advance of the line. The shear is very strong, and some of the models even suggest some healthy low-level shear, so this event certainly warrants some watching.
  3. Yeah, definitely looks better south and east of here, where the better instability will reside. A slightly slower system could, however, change things a bit. Pros: good wind fields including some favorable hodographs, good surge of low-level moisture Cons: limited heating leading to crappy lapse rates and very limited CAPE, no real height falls of note (the trough lifts to the northeast, which also explains why it won't be very cold behind the front)
  4. Looks like the outflow from the northern line really disrupted the primary line arriving from the west.
  5. Huge severe warning box to the east of that line segment. Certainly looks like growing potential for a long-track swath of damaging winds.
  6. Sunday is potentially interesting around here with good timing for the next front and fairly healthy deep layer shear in place. The limiting factor is instability, especially due to fairly low dew points. The HRRR is less enthused about the potential, but as usual, it has by far the lowest dew points among the CAMs. Other CAMs are more moist, and there are some impressive simulated reflectivity forecasts (hi there, 6Z NAM Nest!).
  7. All of the obvious caveats at this range of course apply, but besides the deterministic GFS and EMCWF agreeing on the idea of a storm and a pattern than would pull it hard north, the ensembles at that range also support a synoptic pattern that would pull any Gulf storm to the north. Certainly worth a look for now.
  8. Time to update the max temps for today. Temps soaring ahead of the front.
  9. Ah, that makes sense - I misinterpreted. As I mentioned in the SVR thread, I thought that a SLGT was possible, but the MRGL may work ok. I do expect several warnings and a handful of wind reports (and an outside chance of a brief TOR).
  10. Is there a box out?? I haven't seen one....
  11. Hodographs definitely support supercells, although low-level shear *appears* to be insufficient to actually get rotation to the ground.
  12. No doubt that we could certainly get a low-topped event in the next 2 months, but for now, today's storms seem to have initiated ahead of schedule. NAM Nest is further south, but the HRRR has been pretty consistent with the greatest coverage around DC and points north.
  13. Last hurrah for this thread?? Pretty clear in the CAMs that strong convection will form later Monday afternoon, but there is disagreement on location, timing, and coverage. Regardless, shear will be more than adequate, and instability overall looks to be sufficient (and somewhat impressive on the latest NAM Nest and HRRR runs). The MRGL is certainly warranted (as is the 2% TOR, although low-level shear might be too weak), and I would not be surprised if this ends up as a SLGT.
  14. already up to 1.1" in southern Howard County at 10:30 AM
  15. Flooding a likely concern on Sunday:
  16. Got close to 0.6" in the heavy showers that rolled through Howard County at dinner time. Some very solid model consensus for a more widespread area of heavy rain for the early morning hours into rush hour.
  17. The 12Z guidance went back to having several CAMs ripping the line to shreds as it arrives.
  18. I want to be intrigued by tomorrow, but at this point, I'm just hoping for rain. The shear is very marginal, but it looks like there will be some modest instability and a decent amount of downdraft cape. The simulated reflectivity forecasts are all over the place, but there may be some agreement on a weakening line approaching the metro areas by early evening, possibly intensifying a bit over the eastern burbs.
  19. LWX ignored some decent signals in the CAMs for convection today......
  20. Right. Instability is important, but Precipitable Water is a better driver of flooding rains than CAPE.
  21. several CAMs fire storms along the sea breeze in Delaware by early/mid afternoon
  22. There were several lightning strikes this evening on outflow boundaries, with no rainfall or other nearby lightning, so it's not surprising that people were caught off guard.
  23. NAM Nest is doing its usual thing of having low-level dew points that are too high, which inflates the CAPE. That said, even though that solution has the most organized convection of the CAMs, most do show at least a few storms in the area later today. Tomorrow looks like the bigger deal. The HRRR is an outlier with its *low* dew points - most CAMs show widespread heavy storms in the area towards dinner time.
  24. some significant changes so far in the 12Z suite of models: several CAMs now show a batch of heavy showers moving across a good chunk of northern VA and northwestern MD during Sunday afternoon. The HRRR even goes so far as to make it a full Sunday afternoon washout for the metro areas. Will be interesting to see if this is a one-cycle glitch for the guidance or if it's figuring out now that Sunday won't be nearly as nice of a day as originally expected.
  25. Got 0.26" just south of you. I posted in the Obs thread that the thunder really started cranking after the line passed, and you could see it in the lightning data. There were many strikes well behind the rainfall, including one here that was maybe 75 yards away and took out our power for 5 hours
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