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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Around here, storms in high PW environments like today are generally more effective at cranking out the CGs. As you note, though, questions about the evolution of storms this evening remain.
  2. high risk
    Any show today looks to be a late one, per the overnight CAMs. There does seem to be a modest consensus that a broken line will approach from the northwest around sunset, and the environment should support maintenance of the activity for several hours beyond peak heating. As for Friday, instability looks great, but shear is not good. Storm organization should be sufficient for some severe threat, but the current CAM consensus keeps all storms later Friday from DC to the south.
  3. high risk
    Yeah, even though the timing/coverage differ, the fact that EVERY CAM has storms in the DC area later today was such a great sign this morning. An MCV with favorable timing is usually a great combination.
  4. high risk
    I agree that SVR potential today is limited by lousy shear, although MCVs can be sneaky Lousy shear will also be an issue Friday, although high instability and organization of storms along the front might counteract that. But Thursday might have the best combination of shear and instability and allow for a more widespread event, although the source of triggering is less obvious than on the other two days.
  5. high risk
    Looks like we may be dealing with convection for the Wednesday morning commute.
  6. high risk
    Yeah, instability looks good at the end of the week. Thursday has enough deep layer shear to perhaps make it an interesting day for many. The flow Friday looks weak which would support very isolated severe. I'm *very* intrigued by multiple ensemble systems showing potential for deep trough to our west next week.
  7. high risk
    The gust front gave us close to severe winds here in southern Howard County. A transformer exploded and caused a small fire in the woods which the downpours extinguished before the fire trucks arrived. Currently no power.
  8. high risk
    Nothing in the current or forecast parameters looks particular unfavorable, unless I’m missing something. I think that SPC agrees, given the inclusion of northern MD in the ENH area.
  9. high risk
    Guidance is emphatic that the line will fall apart as it moves across northern MD, but I'm not sure that I can justify why that would happen.
  10. high risk
    This little line moving through now is NOT the main front; it’s some sort of pre-frontal trough feature. The front won’t move through until later tonight.
  11. high risk
    The 3 HiRes Windows are notably early with the convection which would give us a fighting chance, as the shear is actually decent. The HRRR, NAM Nest, and RRFS are too late with the arrival of any storms.
  12. high risk
    The problem is that the front has trended faster, so it’s increasingly likely that it moves though during the unfavorable time of day.
  13. high risk
    Whatever threat the DC-Baltimore area has today will be an early show.
  14. high risk
    Persistent signal in the CAMs for heavy rainfall tonight in the counties along the MD/PA border.
  15. high risk
    Day 2 SLGT now includes DC. MRGL extends north to the MD/PA border.
  16. high risk
    There is a clear trend towards slowing down the front on Wednesday, which means that SPC will likely need to adjust their MRGL back to the northwest to include more of the local area. The shear/instability combo might even support a SLGT.
  17. high risk
    I think that is on the right track. The focus for the heavy rain today will definitely be well to the northwest, and while it will eventually sink southeast into the metro areas later this afternoon, it will be weakening as it does.
  18. high risk
    Will reach 1" with the next batch about to arrive in southern Howard County
  19. high risk
    I don't think that these are surfaced-based storms. The low, rolling thunder suggests an inversion, and elevated cape makes sense given the overnight height falls.
  20. high risk
    Yes! CAMs have been in overall good agreement that multiple rounds of convection move across the area overnight, except for southern MD. Then more heavy showers erupt tomorrow around midday and gradually sink to the southeast.
  21. high risk
    Definitely consistent with the idea that this is mainly a threat north of 66 (VA) 50 (MD).
  22. high risk
    Big downdraft CAPE is our path to severe today, because the shear sucks. That might be enough to get it done in a few corridors where storms organize, but this would have had some legit widespread material had we achieved better winds aloft.
  23. high risk
    The overnight NAMs are lit up like Christmas trees. It's the HRRR that wants to keep all activity today focused north of DC.
  24. high risk
    There arguments against it (rising heights, dubious trigger) are legit, but it's tough to ignore that most CAMs have at least a couple of cells. I think that today warrants a 20% PoP.
  25. high risk
    Actually, all of the CAMs this evening suggest scattered convection in the area Tuesday evening which is nice to see.
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