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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Looks somewhat similar to today, with perhaps weaker instability but better wind fields. Same idea of a poorly-timed front, but plenty of storms forming on a lee or some other type of pre-frontal trough.
  2. high risk
    All of what you said is legit, but I'm leaning now towards the idea that this was an artifact. As you said, getting a strike super far away from the core is possible, but I think you need a much more powerful setup than we had today.
  3. high risk
    Yeah, the good low-level shear is closer to the warm front in NJ.
  4. high risk
    Winds were probably in the 40mph here. Impressive rain rates. Radar suggests that we're not done.
  5. high risk
    Close. I said that the deep layer shear favored the storms to rotate, but the low-level shear (which is needed to get the rotating storms to produce tornadoes) was fairly marginal.
  6. high risk
    I think they're going to do what I suggested earlier. Put a tornado box to our east and northeast where the better low-level shear is in place, and put a severe box over the rest of MD and northern and central VA.
  7. high risk
    It's going to be an active day for sure, but I'm not sure I'm ready to say that it will be memorable. You're spot on about the high end instability, but while the shear is good, low-level shear is marginal and might actually decrease through the afternoon as the warm front advances to the northeast.
  8. high risk
    Time for that box, SPC.... Wind profiles definitely favor rotation today. Whether the rotation can be achieved at low levels is less clear.
  9. high risk
    What the heck is that random lightning strike near Damascus???
  10. high risk
    It does, although as their discussion mentions, the wind profiles are much more supportive of tornadoes to our northeast. Personally, I would put a tornado box over NJ, DE, southeast PA, and a severe box over MD and VA, but I can see where those shapes don't really fit around the initial box over PA.
  11. high risk
    It's worth watching, for sure. With the westerly flow aloft, even 190 or 200 degree winds (SSW) at the surface might be enough to make things interesting. Most of the guidance veers us to more fully southwest ahead of storm development, though, and surface wind speeds may not be particularly strong. If that's wrong, yes, a tornado or two would be possible. My guess now is that we'll have some supercell structures (and a tornado warning or two) with the favorable deep-layer shear but not enough low-level shear for tornadoes.
  12. high risk
    It's very warm to our south, so a fast warmup could absolutely occur, but I'm worried. While the guidance is all over the place, most initiate storms along the lee trough or some other boundary this afternoon. That said, the models have most of the area getting into the 90s, so if the clouds from the PA activity retard heating, we could end up with limited / weaker storms. It's also worth noting that the RRFS really wants to clock us late evening with the line dropping south out of PA, even though most over guidance has it falling apart. Bottom line is that I'm cautiously optimistic for rainfall today, and the severe threat is real if we get some heating, but there is definitely a path to many of us getting nada.
  13. high risk
    Massive win.
  14. high risk
    I fully agree that any storms tomorrow afternoon that form have real severe potential. I don't see smoke being a major factor in our area; HRRR shows most of the smoke (both at the surface and in the column) retreating to the northeast. It warms us up to 95! I think you're on the right track with the warm mid-level temps hurting us, and the mean flow somewhat perpendicular to the lee trough also argues for more scattered coverage.
  15. high risk
    That's not true. Other than some air quality models, the RAP and HRRR are the only standard forecasting models that explicitly account for smoke.
  16. high risk
    Early thought is that storms will fire Saturday afternoon along the lee trough in an environment with good shear and at least moderate instability. (The NAM is likely too moist in the low levels, so toss its extreme instability). Severe will definitely be a concern, and the high PW environment may support locally intense rainfall, but the fast storm movement should prevent major flooding concerns. The potential round 2 is highly dependent upon timing. Right now, consensus seems to favor arrival very late in the evening, which leads to significant weakening (and possibly falling completely apart) before arrival. The shear will be increasing further after dark, so severe would be possible, but the timing really needs to speed up to make that happen.
  17. high risk
    I was in NYC. Really, really unpleasant, although the smoke nicely kept the temperatures down.
  18. high risk
    I've been here 30 years, and late night MCS event surviving from the Midwest and hitting us good have been really rare as far as I can remember. I can think of lots of MCSs falling apart in the morning hours as they arrive in the early morning, but not many delivering the goods in the warm season. (I can think of several cold season events with intense dynamics, but those were more frontal bands than an MCS.) It's just so difficult, because you need elevated instability to compensate for the surface cooling, and we so rarely get the big lapse rates.
  19. high risk
    One thing that makes it so difficult to even distribute summer rain here in the east is the inability to have nighttime MCC events. Over the Plains, you can easily put down 1-2" over a large area with one of those systems, but we so rarely get EMLs here that MCCs can't survive the trip east.
  20. high risk
    The rare Day 7 SPC outlook for our area!
  21. high risk
    Yeah, towers went up along the northward-moving boundary but failed. Something is hostile to development, as shown by the complete collapse of the storms moving south out of PA
  22. high risk
    Maybe, but right now, I’m going to need some convincing that WPC was justified in issuing an MPD for our area
  23. high risk
    Visually from Howard County, cells are trying to go up on that outflow boundary moving north out of DC
  24. high risk
    This has all of the makings of a "pity MD" day.
  25. high risk
    And south and north too.
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