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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    is a slight risk that was downgraded to a marginal really a bust? The models were very clear that storms would be isolated at best.
  2. high risk
    I’ve been saying that today has some sneaky tornado potential, confirmed by the CSU prog above. I think that storm rotation is somewhat likely today but 1) I’m still unsure about storm coverage 2) sfc winds might be a bit weak too weak let’s see how much we warm this afternoon. Nam nest has the coolest temps and therefore the least storm coverage.
  3. high risk
    I’m not totally sure, but I think they’re referring to the profiles having stronger winds in the mid levels and then weaker winds above, creating looping hodographs. Those can sometimes prevent proper tilting of the updraft/downdraft structure needed to maintain persistent strong updrafts. We’ll see if the upper level winds are really weaker.
  4. high risk
    Yeah, lots of uncertainty, but most of the CAMs (NAM Nest is notably bearish) have at least a couple of cells - a widespread severe event does not appear likely, but localized severe appears to be on the table. I maintain that there is a slightly higher tornado risk; SPC notes the veered surface winds but that may be offset by a greater westerly component in the flow just above. More widespread storm coverage may be possible later Thursday night, but these would have very limited severe potential.
  5. high risk
    Early take on Thursday: some CAMs have storms in the area by late afternoon or early evening, and some don't. If, however, storms do form, the environment actually features some decent low-level shear and a resultant conditional tornado threat.
  6. high risk
    Right. Parameters, especially the shear, are very favorable Thursday. But will there be a trigger? As you noted, the NAM says no, but the HiResW FV3 opens the door to at least a few cells in the Mid-Atlantic.
  7. high risk
    The QPF signals for that event are remarkable.
  8. high risk
    Looking at the morning guidance, there are some definite things to like for tomorrow: forcing arriving at at favorable time of day, good deep layer shear, a warm air mass. Instability wil, however, be a question mark due to modest moisture. The NAM Nest gets dew points into the low 60s which allows for ~1000 CAPE. That would easily support a severe threat. Other guidance has lower dew points, and the instability is lower, unless intense heating compensates. A SLGT is certainly justified; I can’t see an ENH into the DC area at this time unless there is high confidence in instability. I’m also not seeing a 5 TOR threat this far north unless something increases the progged low-level shear.
  9. high risk
    It bears watching for sure, but events here in the spring in which the orientation of the cold front is parallel to the steering flow tend to not work so well, as we get lots of clouds and multiple rounds of stabilizing showers.
  10. high risk
    Since it's quite severe-wise here, I recommend checking out the setup for Wednesday in the Pacific Northwest. Great shear with the intense approaching trough and surprising amounts of instability.
  11. high risk
    I know that this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but all 3 of those forecasts agree on a very cold air mass to our north and a very warm one to our south. They simply disagree on the location of the boundary. That's really not unusual in any way for a 7 day forecast in spring, even if the difference in sensible weather impacts is massive if you move from one side of the front to the other. And the disagreement is less if one examines the ensembles.
  12. high risk
    Yeah, very close call for southern and eastern Howard.
  13. high risk
    Hi-Res guidance in agreement that heavy showers move southwest to northeast across the east side of DC early this evening. Radar confirms this idea, with thunderstorms now over south-central VA.
  14. high risk
    Line filling in nicely now. Was not, however, expecting to be in an MPD..... The wording, though, clearly favors the Eastern Shore.
  15. high risk
    It has nicely cooled aloft. This is what I was suggesting earlier that there might be a window for a couple of hours past sunset with a severe threat, as mid-level cooling would compensate for surface cooling. Unfortunately, with the line (or whatever is left of it) not getting into the DC area for a few more hours, I'm just hoping for a rumble or two of thunder at this point.
  16. high risk
    Yeah, the initial convection moving up from the southwest really didn't have much of an impact. The line to our west will continue to move east, but we'll be dealing with surface cooling when it arrives. That said, there *may* be a window just after dark when cooling aloft compensates for the cooler surface and allow a severe threat to persist into the DC Metro area.
  17. high risk
    The NAM/NAM Nest solution is our path to severe. The HRRR is not. HRRR initiates convection in southern VA by early afternoon which moves NNE and maybe bring a SVR threat to southern MD and the eastern shore, but it screws most of the DC-Baltimore area on severe and rainfall by killing the line arriving from the west. The NAM idea is to have that initial round of convection be far less widespread and not interrupt the convection arriving from the west.
  18. high risk
    I don’t hate the end of the 12z NAM Nest run…I’ll say that.
  19. high risk
    Guidance seems to be converging on better timing for Sunday. Could still be an issue in which widespread clouds and multiple rounds of showers kill instability and any severe threat, but we're in the game for now.
  20. high risk
    Spot on. Forecasted highs for Thursday and Friday are way too warm.
  21. high risk
    Did you accidentally stumble in here while looking for the Guam forum???
  22. high risk
    Yeah, the GFS timing would be terrible; hug the Euro.
  23. high risk
    Beware the midweek back door cold front! A fair amount of guidance has at least the northern parts of the forum much cooler than the far southern parts Wednesday- Friday.
  24. high risk
    Thanks for noticing! My forecast was pretty good, except that the storms (while sub-severe) persisted all the way east into the DC Metro area this evening. The CAMs were too quick to really disintegrate the line.
  25. high risk
    Pretty remarkable CAM agreement on an intense line rolling through the area in the early afternoon tomorrow. (The NAM Nest is a bit later than any other guidance, but it has a notorious slow bias on convective timing.) The reflectivities look amazing, but is there really any severe potential with it in the DC area? The wind fields are amazing, and if we had even 500 j/kg of sfc-based cape, we'd be looking at widespread damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes. But there really isn't any instability shown by any model. Maybe the HRRR squeezes out 50-100 j/kg, but it looks warmer than most other guidance. So, I have to wonder if this will be just a short period of torrential rain followed by stratiform. Before I totally poo-poo the threat, however, it's worth noting that sometimes the incredible shear and overall dynamics can drive severe weather with a forced line in an environment with basically no cape, so I won't rule out a damaging event with an isolated brief pinup, but I don't think that it's likely. The better environment actually establishes itself over northern VA and areas to the north and northwest in the evening hours, as the very cold air aloft arrives, steeping lapse rates. Go look at sfc-based cape fields for the early evening hours. The values aren't awesome, but they're notably higher than during the early afternoon event. Wind fields are still decent, so any cells would likely be supercellular have hail and wind potential. Unfortunately, the upper system arrives just a bit too late, and nighttime sfc cooling with reduce the potential as the evening goes on. The best severe threat with this round will be over eastern WV, northwestern VA, and up into PA. Maybe an isolated cell can pop across the DC metro area, and it would have severe potential if it did, but the threat appears low there at this time.
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