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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Oh, absolutely. The ceiling for this event is way higher than we usually see around here. I’m just pointing out that we shouldn’t be shocked if this ends up way short of its potential. The 00z CAM suite was far from a slam dunk.
  2. high risk
    It’s still a go in terms of the categories and percentages that they’re rolling with, but the actual text mentions multiple ways this could bust.
  3. high risk
    I don’t see this as getting to a high risk tomorrow. If you read the updated day 2, they note a number of potential problems. Again, the ceiling for this event is very, very high. But the floor, while still significant, is lower than some people realize.
  4. high risk
    Oh, and anyone trying to nail down the timing should never look at the NAMs. They’re always a couple of hours late with these events.
  5. high risk
    Hahaha. I don’t want to move on that chart. Maybe it’s because I’m out of town, but while I completely buy the high-end scenarios, there are a still a few things I don’t like about the setup. I would gladly exchange some of the shear to get more instability. Yes, there is still some cape, and maybe it’s enough, but the forecast soundings have tall, very skinny cape which sometimes doesn’t get the job done. That said, it’s tough to ignore that a forced line of convection will roll through in an environment that can certainly bring some big wind to the surface.
  6. high risk
    The high end scenario is still very real. The fail scenario is still very real.
  7. high risk
    Yes and yes. The failures are way too many to note, but a famous day when we successfully recovered is the La Plata event.
  8. high risk
    I think that’s reasonable, although climo says (and guidance agrees) that the best tornado threat will be even further south.
  9. high risk
    The high end potential is definitely there, but two things stand out 1) a clear trend towards earlier timing 2) a lot of guidance showing clouds and showers well ahead of the main forcing. With the right timing, the early convection could be supercells, but the trend towards an earlier event opens the door to insufficient time to recover after morning showers.
  10. high risk
    But is that too much shear for the very modest cape?
  11. high risk
    It’s going to happen because I have a flight arriving at BWI that evening. But seriously, you all have nailed it: Shear will be off the charts, but early spring setups fail a lot here due to the strength of the system causing widespread showers and clouds.
  12. high risk
    The forecasted accumulated snow depth maps are the only relevant images for this event.
  13. high risk
    Agreed. HRRR has a pretty good handle on it, and while I'm still not totally sold on the severe threat, it's moving into a more favorable environment.
  14. high risk
    Friendly reminder that snow accumulation does not reflect what the model thinks will stick. It reflects the amount of QPF that the model has falling as snow. The issue of why the QPF has over 0.50" of liquid falling at the tail end of this event is, however, a fully legit question.
  15. high risk
    Yeah, this is the problem. The shear is good, but how many storms will form? HRRR pops a couple of cells, but it thinks that we're still going to the mid 80s today.
  16. high risk
    Well, hello HiResW FV3!
  17. high risk
    Ugh. The evening CAMs have really backed off, and the NAM Nest never liked it from the start. If this idea is correct, any severe threat may be confined to along I-70 and north.
  18. high risk
    Yeah, I like the 2% hatched. It reflects that there right now is an overall low threat of tornadoes in this area, but if we were to get one, it could be a strong one.
  19. high risk
    Yeah, that was impressive. I agree that there is a lot of uncertainty, but there does seem to be some consensus that the best shot at storms and severe weather tomorrow is north of I-66 in VA and Route 50 in MD. And the real threat might be another county north.
  20. high risk
    come visit us in the severe thread!
  21. high risk
    This makes no sense at all.
  22. high risk
    In the 00Z suite, although they differ greatly on timing and coverage every CAM other than the NAM Nest has convection in our area at some point during Wednesday afternoon in a modestly favorable environment for severe. I'd say that the initial Day 2 outlook will at a minimum keep us in a MRGL, and a SLGT isn't out of the question. The only shot at severe is with the open warm sector storms, as whatever is on the front early Thursday will be weak.
  23. high risk
    As I noted earlier, I was down on the chances, because I'm not sure what would trigger storms during peak heating. The HiResW FV3, RRFS, and ECMWF do all suggest cells in our area, however, Wednesday afternoon in an overall somewhat favorable environment, so I can't ignore that.
  24. high risk
    Soundings for later Wednesday do look interesting, but what will trigger storms? Maybe there is a subtle shortwave in the flow to do something, and the ECMWF admittedly does suggest a couple of open warm sector storms, but I'm skeptical. It appears that the strong forcing won't arrive until early Thursday, the most unfavorable time of day possible for this setup.
  25. high risk
    Agreed, and it's usually really good on this, but it can sometimes stay too cool if a bit of sun can break through on the cool side of the front. Regardless, it really looks like those of us on the east side of the river will get our max temp today at 11:59pm. Tomorrow could get sneaky warm ahead of the weak front sagging southward. The exact timing of the front is in question, which greatly affects the potential to get warm, but southern MD probably has the best chance of getting to the 70s.
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