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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    I still haven't seen any guidance today that suggests that SVR is possible in this area, except for those in southern PA or possibly western and northeastern MD. We might, however, get some thunder very early Monday. SPC might retain the MRGL where it already is for continuity, but the timing for most of us for this event is way off.
  2. high risk
    Definitely can! I think that the timing isn't good for most of us, although there appears to be a signal for some earlier storms dropping southeast into northeastern MD.
  3. high risk
    You only need to go back one page in this discussion to read about the setup.
  4. high risk
    Multiple CAMs nailed this. Radar looks very convective, with some lightning strikes to our northwest.
  5. high risk
    Hoping for some thunder later tonight. Seems to be some general consensus for a band of showers during the dinner hours, and then a second round of more scattered but also heavier cells closer to midnight. Lapse rates will sharpen a bit as the shortwave swings through, so I don't think that we can rule out some lightning.
  6. high risk
    Kinda glad that this wind is occurring. Even though it's long after the MDT was dropped, it will help verify the threat in the public's eye and remove some of the "cry wolf" narrative.
  7. high risk
    They rarely trim things back unless there is a huge clear-cut signal to do so, with strong model consensus.
  8. high risk
    Oh, absolutely. The ceiling for this event is way higher than we usually see around here. I’m just pointing out that we shouldn’t be shocked if this ends up way short of its potential. The 00z CAM suite was far from a slam dunk.
  9. high risk
    It’s still a go in terms of the categories and percentages that they’re rolling with, but the actual text mentions multiple ways this could bust.
  10. high risk
    I don’t see this as getting to a high risk tomorrow. If you read the updated day 2, they note a number of potential problems. Again, the ceiling for this event is very, very high. But the floor, while still significant, is lower than some people realize.
  11. high risk
    Oh, and anyone trying to nail down the timing should never look at the NAMs. They’re always a couple of hours late with these events.
  12. high risk
    Hahaha. I don’t want to move on that chart. Maybe it’s because I’m out of town, but while I completely buy the high-end scenarios, there are a still a few things I don’t like about the setup. I would gladly exchange some of the shear to get more instability. Yes, there is still some cape, and maybe it’s enough, but the forecast soundings have tall, very skinny cape which sometimes doesn’t get the job done. That said, it’s tough to ignore that a forced line of convection will roll through in an environment that can certainly bring some big wind to the surface.
  13. high risk
    The high end scenario is still very real. The fail scenario is still very real.
  14. high risk
    Yes and yes. The failures are way too many to note, but a famous day when we successfully recovered is the La Plata event.
  15. high risk
    I think that’s reasonable, although climo says (and guidance agrees) that the best tornado threat will be even further south.
  16. high risk
    The high end potential is definitely there, but two things stand out 1) a clear trend towards earlier timing 2) a lot of guidance showing clouds and showers well ahead of the main forcing. With the right timing, the early convection could be supercells, but the trend towards an earlier event opens the door to insufficient time to recover after morning showers.
  17. high risk
    But is that too much shear for the very modest cape?
  18. high risk
    It’s going to happen because I have a flight arriving at BWI that evening. But seriously, you all have nailed it: Shear will be off the charts, but early spring setups fail a lot here due to the strength of the system causing widespread showers and clouds.
  19. high risk
    The forecasted accumulated snow depth maps are the only relevant images for this event.
  20. high risk
    Agreed. HRRR has a pretty good handle on it, and while I'm still not totally sold on the severe threat, it's moving into a more favorable environment.
  21. high risk
    Friendly reminder that snow accumulation does not reflect what the model thinks will stick. It reflects the amount of QPF that the model has falling as snow. The issue of why the QPF has over 0.50" of liquid falling at the tail end of this event is, however, a fully legit question.
  22. high risk
    Yeah, this is the problem. The shear is good, but how many storms will form? HRRR pops a couple of cells, but it thinks that we're still going to the mid 80s today.
  23. high risk
    Well, hello HiResW FV3!
  24. high risk
    Ugh. The evening CAMs have really backed off, and the NAM Nest never liked it from the start. If this idea is correct, any severe threat may be confined to along I-70 and north.
  25. high risk
    Yeah, I like the 2% hatched. It reflects that there right now is an overall low threat of tornadoes in this area, but if we were to get one, it could be a strong one.
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