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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Dew points have legitimately crashed. That doesn’t seem to be hindering storm development to the west, and irs probably increasing the wind threat (with larger downdraft cape), but it *might* limit coverage a bit.
  2. high risk
    The lower dew points give me pause for sure, but I feel better seeing that even the HRRR, which overmixes the crap out of our area this afternoon, initiates a modest coverage of storms locally.
  3. high risk
    Wasn't expecting the box to come that far south, but as noted above, there is at least some cam support for it. Also, RRFS going operational is delayed until October.
  4. high risk
    While Friday is indeed capped with no real trigger, there are a couple of CAMs that have a complex of storms dropping south out of PA during the early evening and initiating new storms in our area on the outflow. That said, I'm certainly on board with the prevailing idea of better chances of storms Saturday-Monday with severe and flash flood threats.
  5. high risk
    Would be really nice to be able to lock in a heavy precip event, but there is just too much uncertainty with position of the front, timing of waves, and overall strength of the system. My dream heavy rain scenario is convection along (or just behind) the front later Friday, overrunning showers and storms Friday night, and more elevated convection Saturday with the front hanging around and a shortwave.
  6. high risk
    Nope. The ongoing stratiform rain over us is what I was calling "round 2", and the HRRR seems to have a very good handle on this. After this ends soon, I think we have to wait until tomorrow morning.
  7. high risk
    Morning guidance definitely did not suggest that we’d be screwed north of DC with round 1. But now with round 2 this evening focusing south and tomorrow favoring areas to the south more, I’m very concerned that we’re going to be disappointed with our total.
  8. high risk
    It's a good soaking for most tomorrow morning. And I wouldn't call its forecast for today a fizzle; it's just more isolated with its heavier amounts, and it's a bit of an outlier in that regard.
  9. high risk
    The more backed surface winds and therefore better low-level shear do indeed appear to be more likely to our northeast, but the forecast hodographs for the local area on some guidance do suggest a non-zero tornado threat.
  10. high risk
    Monday has my attention. The parameter space won't be high end, but we should have modest instability, deep layer shear, and dynamics. Timing of day is good. And there are even suggestions of some low-level shear, potentially eventually leading to 5% TOR outlook.
  11. high risk
    There is some hint of destabilization later today in guidance, and it wouldn't take much with these wind fields, so I don't think we're totally dead. That said, the models have a lousy handle on the ongoing convection, so the idea that we may be too stable is valid.
  12. high risk
    18z NAM Nest is the first really encouraging run for Thursday. It also seems to justify the outlook for tonight.
  13. high risk
    Deep westerly flow here is never a good environment for widespread convection. That said, the dew points aren’t progged to lower Thursday afternoon as much as I would have expected, and the RRFS is able to generate a few scattered storms. And any storm in this kinematic environment would be interesting. Still, the best chance of some rainfall might be early Friday as a weak wave moves along the front.
  14. high risk
    You’re not wrong that there are some factors working against this setup, and there are some legit questions about storm coverage. That said 1) dynamics are much better today - synoptic lift will be overspreading the area later today 2) we’re still several hours from game time for most of us, and better moisture should be arriving 3) while cape will be lower today compared to a few days ago, shear is way better.
  15. high risk
    Yeah, the HRRR says that parts of our area will have dew points in the upper 50s within the next 2 hours, and I'm very skeptical of that. This is why the HRRR initiates convection later and further east. If it's wrong, storms should initiate somewhere along the Route 15 corridor.
  16. high risk
    The synoptics definitely scream big event for someone, but the sounding you showed highlights the possible fail mechanism here. The strong mid-level flow develops a sharp lee trough on the east side of the Appalachians early in the day which blasts across the Mid-Atlantic by lunchtime. We then downslope big time ahead of the cold front. That's why there is no directional shear in that sounding - the low-level flow has shifted to westerly. Still plenty of time for sure, though, to sort out the synoptic details.
  17. high risk
    I'm still pretty bullish on today, especially for those east of Route 15. I'll be watching dew point this afternoon closely, as a number of models really mix out for a while and lower the dews significantly. That said, I'm not sure that I buy it to the extent that some guidance has most guidance recovers moisture ahead of development, and shear will be very good later today. If moisture really does mix out for a while, the threat will then be more focused east of the Potomac.
  18. high risk
    No, I actually did mean 2011 when there were destructive tornadoes in western Massachusetts.
  19. high risk
    June 1, 2011 also comes to mind when looking at this setup. You're absolutely correct that a Day 6 outlook for this part of the country is a rare thing, and there certainly is high end potential. Verbatim, I think that the overnight solutions would really favor New England for the greatest potential, but we'll see how the synoptic evolve over the next few days.
  20. high risk
    Sunday still looking very good on the 00Z CAMs. Disagreement on whether storms fire early on the pre-frontal trough or wait for the actual front later, but the shear is massively improved from what we've had the past few days.
  21. high risk
  22. high risk
    Big wind signal east-southeast of Middleburg
  23. high risk
    We've had huge shortcomings in terms of shear the past few days (and today), but that won't be a problem on Sunday. Deep and perhaps even low-level shear look to be really good. There are some model differences in terms of timing and mid-level lapse rates, but Sunday probably has higher potential for coverage and intensity than today does.
  24. high risk
    Despite the 30 wind probs, there is very little CAM signal for storms for most of us today. Seems like a pre-frontal trough rolls through early and switches the low-level flow to west-northwest which dries things out and kills convergence. I’m not quite ready to write off the day yet, but I’d like to see an improved CAM signal in the morning runs.
  25. high risk
    I think you're on the right track here, but the mid-level flow was better than modeled. I suspect that the paltry winds at the upper levels limited the strength of the updraft.
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