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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Nothing in the current or forecast parameters looks particular unfavorable, unless I’m missing something. I think that SPC agrees, given the inclusion of northern MD in the ENH area.
  2. high risk
    Guidance is emphatic that the line will fall apart as it moves across northern MD, but I'm not sure that I can justify why that would happen.
  3. high risk
    This little line moving through now is NOT the main front; it’s some sort of pre-frontal trough feature. The front won’t move through until later tonight.
  4. high risk
    The 3 HiRes Windows are notably early with the convection which would give us a fighting chance, as the shear is actually decent. The HRRR, NAM Nest, and RRFS are too late with the arrival of any storms.
  5. high risk
    The problem is that the front has trended faster, so it’s increasingly likely that it moves though during the unfavorable time of day.
  6. high risk
    Whatever threat the DC-Baltimore area has today will be an early show.
  7. high risk
    Persistent signal in the CAMs for heavy rainfall tonight in the counties along the MD/PA border.
  8. high risk
    Day 2 SLGT now includes DC. MRGL extends north to the MD/PA border.
  9. high risk
    There is a clear trend towards slowing down the front on Wednesday, which means that SPC will likely need to adjust their MRGL back to the northwest to include more of the local area. The shear/instability combo might even support a SLGT.
  10. high risk
    I think that is on the right track. The focus for the heavy rain today will definitely be well to the northwest, and while it will eventually sink southeast into the metro areas later this afternoon, it will be weakening as it does.
  11. high risk
    Will reach 1" with the next batch about to arrive in southern Howard County
  12. high risk
    I don't think that these are surfaced-based storms. The low, rolling thunder suggests an inversion, and elevated cape makes sense given the overnight height falls.
  13. high risk
    Yes! CAMs have been in overall good agreement that multiple rounds of convection move across the area overnight, except for southern MD. Then more heavy showers erupt tomorrow around midday and gradually sink to the southeast.
  14. high risk
    Definitely consistent with the idea that this is mainly a threat north of 66 (VA) 50 (MD).
  15. high risk
    Big downdraft CAPE is our path to severe today, because the shear sucks. That might be enough to get it done in a few corridors where storms organize, but this would have had some legit widespread material had we achieved better winds aloft.
  16. high risk
    The overnight NAMs are lit up like Christmas trees. It's the HRRR that wants to keep all activity today focused north of DC.
  17. high risk
    There arguments against it (rising heights, dubious trigger) are legit, but it's tough to ignore that most CAMs have at least a couple of cells. I think that today warrants a 20% PoP.
  18. high risk
    Actually, all of the CAMs this evening suggest scattered convection in the area Tuesday evening which is nice to see.
  19. high risk
    I haven't seen any guidance bring storms today much further east than the I-81 corridor. Storm motion won't pull anything towards the Metro area.
  20. high risk
    I'm on board for thunderstorms later Wednesday, but the upper level flow looks *really* weak which should reduce the severe potential. There may still be enough shear lower in the profile to get some wind threat, but the ceiling for this event looks to be low.
  21. high risk
    Both.
  22. high risk
    Run time is cheap, but it would be impossible to disseminate it, as those channels are already at capacity. And with a new supercomputer on the way, this is one fewer system to have to port to it.
  23. high risk
    We know that if a rising parcel is much warmer than its environment (implying large CAPE), it will accelerate more and create intense updrafts. The same concept in reverse is true for a downdraft. If the sinking parcel is much colder than its environment, it will accelerate downward, leading to a more intense downdraft. The area between the path of the rising parcel and its environment is CAPE; the area between the path of the sinking parcel and its environment is DCAPE. You can find a nice slide deck at https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/soo/DCAPE_Web.pdf
  24. high risk
    You are correct that better moisture today would have contributed to a likely good event. That said, the deep dry boundary layer has a lot of downdraft cape, and there is definitely at least some potential for wind.
  25. high risk
    Maybe a low-end severe threat for both Saturday and Sunday, although instability is just so limited. I'm tossing the overmixed HRRR.
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