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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Remarkably, the slower NAM timing yesterday seems like it’s going to be correct, and that hurts the setup here.
  2. high risk
    Besides the overall NAM Nest struggles this summer that you've documented, this looks to be a classic case of the NAM being too slow with the system, causing it to arrive at a very unfavorable time. Its timing is a clear outlier for now.
  3. high risk
    Morning CAMs suggest a heavy rainfall threat Saturday evening (timing unsurprisingly still somewhat in doubt). Good signal for convection spreading east ahead of a shortwave into an axis of very high PWs and some instability.
  4. high risk
    I was really surprised when this popped up on my Radarscope. The HRRR hates this event, and while WPC talked up the 850 mb confluence, it seems kind of subtle to me. That said, the RRFS likes it to some extent, as did some of the cams earlier today, and storms are indeed firing across central PA. I'll be surprised if anything makes it southwest of Baltimore, but it's worth monitoring for a while this evening.
  5. high risk
    It’s actually more likely the storms firing out ahead over northeast Ohio. That would be better, because we want these storms to arrive as early as possible.
  6. high risk
    The front is slower than had been shown, so the updated Day2 has expanded the SLGT back to the north. Still tons of CAM disagreement (of course).
  7. high risk
    Sorry. Bad wording on my part. The southeast PA reference was regarding where the complex heads as it moves out of western PA.
  8. high risk
    There seems to be growing consensus that an intense MCS will form over northeast OH and western PA late this afternoon and move southeast. While it (shocker) appears that the best threat will be over southeast PA, at least some of the complex should make it into northern MD and potentially into the Baltimore-Washington corridor later this evening or overnight.
  9. high risk
    Certainly sounds like SPC is going to issue a new box over us soon.
  10. high risk
    Hard not to think that this cluster will persist south of the M-D line, although instability isn't what it could have been, given that the eastern half of the area has easterly winds behind that weak backdoor front.
  11. high risk
    I personally don't look at it very often, as it's still being tweaked. That said, it's the future, so as it matures, I'll definitely be looking more often.
  12. high risk
    Correct. HRRR, NAM Nest, RRFS, and the three Hires Windows (FV3, ARW, ARW2).
  13. high risk
    Even this evening has a lot of questions. While there is general agreement that a cluster of storms drops south through NJ/DE, some of the CAMs have storms building back to the west and catching much of central MD.
  14. high risk
    One complication for tomorrow is that some of the guidance pushes a front from the northeast through the area later tonight. If that pushes well to our southwest like shown in the NAM Nest, we'll be cooler and more stable, at least on the Maryland side. Less aggressive guidance puts the boundary somewhere between DC and Baltimore and has it retreat later in the day. This would in theory be a focus for afternoon convection.
  15. high risk
    I'd say that there isn't much doubt about it, especially in the East. We've had several derechos over the year die an ugly death over the mountains to our west when no EML was in place downstream. One event in 2000 led SPC to issue a rare PDS severe thunderstorm watch here due to an intense bow echo over southeast Ohio blasting east. Our environment did not have an EML, and the Appalachians shredded the system - we ended up with line of showers featuring gusts to 30 kt.
  16. high risk
    Not much to add to the ongoing discussion: trying to place and time particular events between now and the end of the week (best chances between Wednesday morning and Friday midday?) is likely to be futile, but higher end events in the Mid-Atlantic are certainly on the table. A taste of the potential.....
  17. high risk
    I don't hate the Thursday severe setup. Parameters are not high-end for sure, but there is probably enough instability and shear to justify the SLGT risk. CAMs prefer areas to the east and northeast of DC. Several have an idea of initial storms in northeast MD backbuilding through the Baltimore area and eventually into Howard/PG/AA Counties before sinking south towards Charles/Calvert/St Marys. It's an odd evolution, but given that it shows up in multiple evening CAMs, I can't discount it.
  18. high risk
    Yeah, this is a pretty solid setup: good dynamics, good deep layer shear, and moderate instability. CAMs suggest that most areas north of DC are close to a lock to get storms, while there is a bit more uncertainty for areas south of DC.
  19. high risk
    Everything you said about the environment later tomorrow is spot on, but the one parameter you left out is cape, and that could certainly prevent a bigger day tomorrow. There is certainly solid model consensus for a “round 2” of storms later Sunday, but forecast soundings don’t look great. I certainly agree, though, that IF we can destabilize, supercells and tornadoes are on the table. Otherwise, it’s a noisy heavy rain event.
  20. high risk
    There are things to like for Sunday for sure, but a morning MCS appears fairly likely, which would wreck afternoon chances, except perhaps for southern areas. Probably more of a heavy rain event for most of us, unless the MCS is fake or delayed.
  21. high risk
    It's a definite signal. There is some disagreement on decaying, as it looks like the storms actually originate during the late evening hours over northern Virginia and then move east.
  22. high risk
    I share your confusion about why the HRRR and RRFS have switched to an unenthusiastic solution for this afternoon.
  23. high risk
    As some of you have noted, there is absolutely low level shear today, and the low LCLs also suggest that a brief tornado or two is possible. The overall strength of the wind fields probably doesn't support a more significant threat, but I would not be surprised to see a few tornado warnings.
  24. high risk
    Current target is early October.
  25. high risk
    It was interesting how the overnight runs looked pretty good, and then the 12Z suite (and a HRRR cycle or two after that) didn't look as good, before the HRRR locked on to the solution by late morning. And I'll be curious to see how many tornadoes are actually found. There were probably way more warnings than needed, but I'm wondering if they'll find more than the current count of one (good video of a tornado on the Eastern Shore north of Cambridge). Ultimately, we probably weren't far off from a more significant tornado event, but as you suggested in your post, the low-level winds were probably just a bit too weak, although I think that the low-level profile was slightly better than what the RRFS and GFS/ECMWF were suggesting last night.
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