high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. 12z NAM nest and HRRR both develop storms Saturday in the local area. Instability is limited, and shear is marginal, but there will be a lot of downdraft cape. Personally, I'm not very enthused, because the low level air will be so dry, but I'm ok with the MRGL. Sunday could be good if we lose the ugly warm mid-level temperatures being progged.
  2. The one thing we had yesterday that we hadn't had here in a while was good flow aloft on a storm day. We had about 90 kt at jet level Thursday afternoon.
  3. today definitely has sneaky potential. as noted by LWX, low level shear is miserable, but deep layer shear is really good, and there is also a fair amount of downdraft cape. I'd say now that while the best threat is definitely south of DC, where the better instability will reside, I'd say "I-70 and points south" for the threat, as the HRRR has definitely trended further north with good reflectivity signals since LWX wrote that discussion.
  4. mesoanalysis currently shows 3000+ sfc-based cape for much of the region.... that said, most of the CAMs are not as enthusiastic as they were yesterday and seem to favor locations north and northwest of DC
  5. winds got really close to severe limits here in southern Howard County .
  6. Yeah, documentation needs to be updated, and nothing is finalized yet until it can be demonstrated that it's stable, but it's not going to be implemented any time soon.
  7. yes, it crashed multiple times during its final stability test, so more testing is required.
  8. nope. likely delayed until late fall. The recent problems, however, explain why no data is currently available.
  9. Agreed, although tomorrow is interesting, because while the deep layer shear is still weak, there is a fair amount of low level shear. Instability is no worry, and there will be a good trigger, so I think it's worth watching. I'm a bit surprised by the MRGL today. Shear is really, really sad, and even the approaching MCV won't boost the mid-level flow much at all. That said, storms will become fairly organized with the approaching lift, and organization always yields the potential for some coldpool development, so a few wind events likely can't be ruled out.
  10. Nice research on this! 2008 was an active svr season for sure, but SPC was handing out MDT risks like Halloween candy. This was back before ENH existed, and they used MDT more liberally to try and distinguish from the run-of-the-mill SLGT days. In that respect, adding in the ENH was a very good move, as it allows them to represent those days with a larger coverage of lower end events and save the MDT for days with a decent concentration of higher end events. June 4, 2008 was a legit MDT for us, and it's a day I'll always remember. I guess that June 10 verified as a MDT over upstate New York and New England, although there weren't any high end reports; the MDT here didn't verify. May 31 and June 16 definitely would have worked fine with ENH, had that been an option.
  11. hahaha! The bottom line is that with a big trough sitting to our west during a chunk of next week and moving towards the coast, there will be opportunities for severe in the east, with timing and other details obviously impossible to nail at long forecast lengths.
  12. Interesting. Seems like the f144 would be the best shot at svr.... In terms of the progged 500 maps, you have to get excited when you see the day 5 maps showing an impressive trough to our west. The problem is that instead of it overspreading the mid-Atlantic, most guidance either lifts it to the northeast, weakens it, or both. As a result, the progged height falls over our area are really meh in the GFS, GEFS, and Euro ensemble. The deterministic Euro, though, is better and would imply svr chances here on day 6.
  13. Trying to make some sense of the CIPS lighting up. It's based off of the GEFS, and some of the recent GEFS means for next week look healthy. I grabbed the 18z (the analog was from the 00z cycle, but the 18z 500 map is arguably a bit better....). Anyhow, this is a great look at 500 mb, but of note, neither the Euro ops or ensemble looks anything close to this amplified.
  14. gotcha. and yeah, the 12z guidance seems to be moving the heaviest rain south - we'll see if that's a blip or a legit trend. Either way, the flooding threat will probably be there for some (i.e. lots of rain adding up over a multi-day period); whether it's a flash flood threat will depend upon whether we can get some clearing and heating near the upper low for convection. Right now, it just looks cloudy and cool.
  15. And I should note that part of this subforum is still in the game today, with cape and modest deep layer shear still in place. The CAMs show the threat as mostly DC and points south and east, but I still have a 71 dew point here in southern Howard County, so I'm not totally ready to write things off for those just north of DC either.
  16. Since I assume you're referring to severe potential here in the severe thread, there's no severe potential this weekend or anywhere on the horizon. While there could be some convective elements in the Sunday-??? period within the rain, it looks like easterly flow over a deep layer and cool surface temperatures.
  17. it's gone now, but it looked to me like there was weak rotation for a few scans
  18. I think it's definitely a supercell or at least has supercellular characteristics.
  19. definitely not done with storms for the evening and overnight. shear is marginal, but still some decent instability around.
  20. yeah, it will be interesting to see whether it maintains this solution. The NAM nest has been semi-consistent with an evening threat a couple of hours earlier. The NSSL-WRF (ARW2) is the only model that has convection in the metro area before 00z.
  21. A wind-driven MDT is certainly the type of event that might see the issuance of a PDS severe box. Curious to see how this plays out, with severe storms well-established already in western Michigan during the morning. The next box that gets issued out ahead of it might be PDS.
  22. Thank you. I'm not aware of any correlation between the severe season and summer temperatures, but it's a great question. Some severe seasons are tempered by all of the flow being displaced north into Canada which usually implies a hot pattern. Some seasons like this one are tempered by anomalous blocking which kept a lot of people cool. And we all know that patterns can quickly break down. Looking at some of the longer range forecasts, they are showing a big ridge over the central U.S. and more troughing in the east (as you noted). This would imply fairly frequent frontal passages for us, with breaks in the heat, potential severe weather along the fronts, and maybe even some northwest flow severe events.
  23. exactly. the entire SVR season has been ridiculously tame almost everywhere. there hasn't been a MDT for tornadoes since those April events in the southeast
  24. Any threat in the DC-Baltimore area looks to be along and northwest of I-95 in Maryland, and the ARW2 and NAM nest are the models to hug. Haven't seen any HRRR runs get any convection of note into our region today, for what that's worth.....