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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Interesting that some of the evening CAM guidance initiates convection in the area MUCH earlier than previous runs. This would probably wipe out most of the SVR threat, but it could lead to multiple rounds of storms that enhance the flooding threat.
  2. high risk
    I do think that we could go to SLGT for severe, as there is a fair amount of downdraft CAPE in the forecast soundings. I think that’s contingent on the initial batch of Precip being an organized southeast-moving line If there are scattered cells earlier in the afternoon, as shown by a few solutions, our severe chances are likely lower. But as discussed above, the flooding threat tomorrow is real.
  3. high risk
    Wow. I knew that Columbia fared better than I did, but I didn’t realize that the discrepancy was that large. Only 0.28” here.
  4. high risk
    Worth noting that even though the rotation was very weak, and no warning occurred (or were needed), those overnight storms were actually supercells. Pretty tough to do that here during the overnight, except during tropical remnant events.
  5. high risk
    Models have a good handle on the convection rolling across central and southern PA, but storms are now breaking out over northern VA. Curious to see how this evolves overnight.
  6. high risk
    Guidance does show some sort of weak boundary crossing the area later Sunday. There isn't much change in air mass behind it, but it will likely increase storm chances Sunday. Hopefully, it will all wrap up by evening.
  7. high risk
    With the big pattern change at some point later next week, ushered in with a strong cold front, you would think that the chances of severe are quite high. But it could be more of a saggy cold front that sometimes doesn't work well here for severe. Definitely has my interest, though.
  8. high risk
    The cooldown for the first weekend in August looks legit - very strong ensemble agreement across modeling systems.
  9. high risk
    The big question is whether there is another round later tonight. We typically don’t do late night convection well, but there is forcing arriving later. Radar is lighting up over WV; guidance is mixed about how significant it is when it reaches DC metro in a few hours.
  10. high risk
    Not sure that this cell over DC needs a tornado warning, but I understand the caution
  11. high risk
    Yeah, the downburst was somewhat localized. Finally got power restored after 6 hours. Got 0.82" today. Unsure tomorrow whether the heavy rains will come north of DC.
  12. high risk
    It got real just south of you. Pretty significant tree damage here and power is out.
  13. high risk
    Significant downburst here in southern Howard County. Big pieces of trees down and no power
  14. high risk
    watch coming soon. The environment isn't awesome for severe, but there is a fair amount of downdraft cape, and storms will be quite organized.
  15. high risk
    Modest (at best) shear but a lot of cape and some downdraft cape. I guess it’s worth a SLGT, but right now, it’s a low- end SLGT.
  16. high risk
    Love seeing the activity in Anne Arundel and points east moving the northeast, while all of the activity in PG and points west is moving south.
  17. high risk
    A bunch of consecutive HRRR runs have another round of convection overspreading the area towards dawn. The NAM Nest has a similar idea, although it's weaker with that batch and then a bit heavier with some mid-morning showers. I've also heard various media forecasts promoting drier air for Wednesday afternoon, but a clear majority of guidance (minus the always overmixed GFS) keeps our dew points around 70 through Wednesday evening and doesn't really bring in the drier air until early Thursday. And several models show isolated convection just ahead of the front Wednesday evening.
  18. high risk
    Southern MD about to get drowned.
  19. high risk
    Yeah, there is some rotation, but it’s quite broad. But LWX is always nervous to miss something.
  20. high risk
    Some really weird boundary interaction must be supporting the rotation northeast of Baltimore, as the wind profile is almost as anti-supercell as you can get.
  21. high risk
    Sorry - I stole your rain. 0.30” here.
  22. high risk
    I’m not seeing much of a signal in the CAMs to support a higher PoP tomorrow out your way, but I hope it works out for you.
  23. high risk
    I'm not sure how much coverage there will be on Monday, but shear will be slightly improved (relative to today and tomorrow), and CAPE should be plentiful. It's probably a MRGL day with some potential for a late upgrade to a SLGT. A bigger threat might be localized flash flooding, with huge PW values and still relatively slow storm motion.
  24. high risk
    If that 9pm cell missed you, it couldn't have been by much. Storms just blew up a bit east of me - getting occasional thunder here.
  25. high risk
    Something will probably make it us, but it will probably have weakened considerably. Sigh.
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