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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Unfortunately, the 18Z joined the east trend. We *may* still be in the game along the 95 corridor in Maryland, but we’re running out of wiggle room. On the positive side, most guidance has a signal for some anafrontal rain, either during the late evening, overnight, or early Sunday hours.
  2. high risk
    The NAM Nest is glorious, but I have to acknowledge that I share the concern that others have about this event ending up more east of here. There is a bit of an unfavorable trend in some of the guidance.
  3. high risk
    Saturday would be a SLGT on the NAM Nest, with even some potential for supercells. But the forecast dew points may be too high, and the occurrence/location of a mesolow is of course in doubt at this range.
  4. high risk
    The Wednesday evening hi-res guidance is very encouraging for Thursday late afternoon / early evening convection, especially over central Maryland.
  5. high risk
    Yes! And it also likes a possible second round on the primary front. I’ll take anything I can get.
  6. high risk
    I should probably know better, but I'm hopeful that a number of us will see a couple of tenths Thursday. It won't be a widespread soaker, and there will be some big losers, but the pre-frontal trough should initiate convection with some degree of organization Thursday afternoon.
  7. high risk
    I got 0.02" which increased my August rainfall total to 0.05".
  8. high risk
    remarkably, there is one shower in the entire Mid-Atlantic this evening, and it's right over my house.
  9. high risk
    And it sure doesn't seem like a decent rain is coming anytime soon. I've seen many bone-dry Septembers, but having the rain shut off in early August doesn't happen very often.
  10. high risk
    There is a lot more support for the cooler solution in the evening guidance, including from the always-mixed and warm HRRR and HiResW FV3. There is also growing consensus that much of the area might not get out of the 60s on Tuesday
  11. high risk
    You beat me by 0.026"
  12. high risk
    Two clear trends in the guidance: 1) the timing of the storm chances for most is moving up from overnight Sunday to Sunday late afternoon / early evening 2) with northeast flow and clouds, Monday may not get to 80 degrees for most. Could even end up well below 80.
  13. high risk
    The 00z CAMs were quite bullish on afternoon convection, especially over central Maryland, but the 06z NAM Nest and recent HRRR runs have backed way off.
  14. high risk
    models are not particularly impressive for this afternoon, but none seem to have a good handle on the evolving area of widespread, heavy convection to our west. Radar is quite impressive.
  15. high risk
    You’re really looking to die on this hill, aren’t you?
  16. high risk
    Not sure why they used an 80 dew point to represent the surface, but that is not representative of a low-level parcel. The mixed-layer values (2800 CAPE, -6 LI) are far more realistic. Still a good environment, but the extreme environment that those "surfaced-based" values would suggest.
  17. high risk
    HRRR still wants a big show for many of us in a few hours
  18. high risk
    The HRRR is an outlier with focusing on the period around dinner time. Multiple other CAMs say that the period of interest for a good part of the area is much earlier. I recommend looking at the experimental RRFS on Pivotal It really crushes the DC/PG/Howard crew fairly early.
  19. high risk
    with 2" PW values? That's pretty tough to do. Our path to a SLGT is yesterday's 12Z HRRR or NAM Nest, with a semi-organized line arriving just after peak heating. The majority of the solutions this evening, which break out convection way early and not very organized, would likely only justify a MRGL for a few wet microburst events early in the event before it becomes a heavy rain situation.
  20. high risk
    Several evening hi-res runs now initiate storms in the area by early afternoon and possibly even a bit earlier.
  21. high risk
    Interesting that some of the evening CAM guidance initiates convection in the area MUCH earlier than previous runs. This would probably wipe out most of the SVR threat, but it could lead to multiple rounds of storms that enhance the flooding threat.
  22. high risk
    I do think that we could go to SLGT for severe, as there is a fair amount of downdraft CAPE in the forecast soundings. I think that’s contingent on the initial batch of Precip being an organized southeast-moving line If there are scattered cells earlier in the afternoon, as shown by a few solutions, our severe chances are likely lower. But as discussed above, the flooding threat tomorrow is real.
  23. high risk
    Wow. I knew that Columbia fared better than I did, but I didn’t realize that the discrepancy was that large. Only 0.28” here.
  24. high risk
    Worth noting that even though the rotation was very weak, and no warning occurred (or were needed), those overnight storms were actually supercells. Pretty tough to do that here during the overnight, except during tropical remnant events.
  25. high risk
    Models have a good handle on the convection rolling across central and southern PA, but storms are now breaking out over northern VA. Curious to see how this evolves overnight.
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