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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    18Z still like south of DC for multiple rounds, but it gives one round to most of us. I'd take it. HRRR is again showing a couple of rounds for most.
  2. high risk
    Definitely on board with a SLGT tomorrow. Chances of multiple widespread rounds of SVR appear to have dropped a lot, but most guidance has an organized system rolling through during the late afternoon hours. With decent CAPE, good downdraft CAPE, and storm organization, there is a good chance of a bunch of wind reports. We'd need better instability and shear to get ENH.
  3. high risk
    Thought it a bit odd as well, guess they could mention it on the 2000z OTLK if the threat manifests itself? Yeah, they could certainly update the 20Z outlook, but @kmlwx is spot on saying that the probabilities map was certainly drawn to account for the only threat being from the ongoing activity. It doesn't go back nearly far enough west for a round 2.
  4. high risk
    Oddly, the new SPC Day 1 outlook only talks about the current show and has no mention of any threat later today. There is certainly still time to heat up again this afternoon.
  5. high risk
    Agreed. Temps are going up despite the cloud cover.
  6. high risk
    Agree fully that the threat for tornadoes, given the current storm mode being mostly linear, is fairly low and will be limited to brief, low-end TORs. Wind damage is the bigger threat. The wildcard, though, will be if any storm can form out ahead and remain discrete. That would be a different ballgame. Parameters are fairly good to our south - it looks like they will advect north before the line arrives, but that's still "work that has to be done". We don't currently have any src-based instability to work with.
  7. high risk
    I'm backing off on my enthusiasm a bit due to an increasing number of model solutions that bring convection into our area as early as midday. Probably need things to hold off a couple of hours to maximize heating in an environment that won't be excessively warm.
  8. high risk
    For now, I like the Friday setup. NAM Nest and HiRes FV3 both show a squall line or QLCS sweeping through the area in the late afternoon / early evening, with a fairly good environment in place ahead of the line.
  9. high risk
    1.43" for the day. Solid!
  10. high risk
    Deep-layer shear in our area is really crap (way better to the north), but given that storms will likely be organized and that the soundings have some appreciable downdraft CAPE, I guess I can get on board with the idea of a watch being issued.
  11. high risk
    Totally get where you're coming from on this, but I'll throw out 2 counterpoints: 1) For today, remember that SPC has to have boundaries on their watches *somewhere*, and if you're in one of those "last counties", unless you've got an adjacent watch box on the other side of the box, your threat is pretty low. They typically make the watches slightly bigger than needed to allow for some margin for error. The chances of SVR today extending all the way south to Howard were always pretty low. 2) Monday was frustrating, but the big hail-producing cell that crushed the southern DC burbs shows that high-end potential did exist. The failure was overpredicting the coverage, which happened after the poorly-modeled midday convection screwed up the environment for a lot of us.
  12. high risk
    for sure, but the show may still be well north of there too.
  13. high risk
    As noted, that MCV is going to be a big player today, but it looks like most of the activity will be in PA. I wouldn't be surprised, based on the latest HRRR runs, if they go ENH there. Looks like less of a chance for the DC/Baltimore areas, but these MCVs can be tricky to model.
  14. high risk
    So, um, that 45 wind area from the morning outlook didn't work out very well.....
  15. high risk
    Storms are starting to intensify as they move east of I-81, and they're about to move into an environment with moderate CAPE values and 50 kt of deep layer shear. It likely won't be a higher-end or widespread SVR event, but there will definitely be severe reports in northern VA and central and eastern MD later this afternoon.
  16. high risk
    That's a very reasonable take. I will note that the longer we have to wait for any threat to materialize, the better the shear gets.
  17. high risk
    Oh, I'm with you all the way. I'm curious how they reached the decision.
  18. high risk
    Those TOR and WIND probs were definitely set too high. But I agree with you that we shouldn't completely swing the pendulum all the way to the other side and go total 'meh' - there is still some SVR threat, especially for those along and east of I-95.
  19. high risk
    CAMs are all over the place for this afternoon, and none of them really have a good handle on this lead convection. The HRRR is now at least starting to initialize the ongoing storms, and it still ramps up a line right along the I-95 corridor during the mid-late afternoon hours. But the ongoing storms are stronger and in greater coverage than the HRRR has, so I'm still not convinced that it will capture the evolution. I'm actually rooting for SVR, given that Howard County is releasing schools early. I would hate for their decision to be ridiculed, leading them to not dismiss early on a future day where it was really needed.
  20. high risk
    If you're looking for significant supercell potential, prepare to be very disappointed. I know that SPC has us in the 5 TOR, but I've always thought of tomorrow as a wind day. There is deep layer shear to support SVR, but the low-level shear to ramp up the TOR potential is pretty marginal at best. That's especially true if it ends up as an early show. The NAM Nest has gone back to a single beefy squall line later in the day, but other CAMs seem to prefer an earlier, broken line. Among those, there is disagreement as to whether a second line will roll through later in the day; a second line might have better wind fields to work with. I still line the overall wind threat tomorrow, although unless the 00Z NAM Nest idea is right, it's probably more of a SLGT than an ENH.
  21. high risk
    Agreed. NAM Nest for Monday afternoon looks impressive, both in terms of forecast soundings and simulated reflectivity.
  22. high risk
    Sorry, @yoda. Didn't see your question earlier, but this explanation is correct. You typically get stronger flow around the edges of a ridge, and there is a typically a "quality" air mass in place beneath. Add a few disturbances moving through that faster flow, and you're in business.
  23. high risk
    I keep waiting for a "real" severe threat to develop here, and by that I mean something with a legitimate amount of instability, and not those cool season low CAPE - high shear events. Climo generally says that we have to wait until mid May or so, and right on schedule, it looks like Monday may have some modest potential.
  24. high risk
    I think I should have said "this afternoon and evening". Radar shows very much a rapidly increasingly convective nature to the precipitation across our area.
  25. high risk
    Seems like there is a good chance of embedded thunder during the evening hours. While it's a bit uncertain how far north the warm front will get, I agree with SPC that any cells in the warm sector or especially ones that interact with the boundary have potential to spin. For DC and points north (and probably even a bit further south than that, as I have doubts how far north the warm front will make it before retreating), any storms will be elevated, eliminating the severe potential but allowing for some hopefully nice lightning and thunder.
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