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Found 3 results

  1. Seeing more of a consistent signal from the Euro about this Friday, June 21st, of at least an appreciable severe weather event for parts of Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska. GEFS signals have been hinting at this for a little while, with a consistent ~ +4 sigma conus SCP for about a week now.
  2. Well as of now, there is a marginal risk by the SPC for the north eastern Texas, Northern Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas area. SPC AC 201730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX THROUGH A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING TOWARD THE CNTRL ROCKIES SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH A WEAKER...LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH TX INTO LA AND MS. ...EXTREME NERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... NEAR SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SLY OVER THE WRN GULF WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERGOING MODIFICATION WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60F. AS THE ERN U.S. SFC RIDGE ADVANCES EWD...A SSWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FROM NERN TX THROUGH LA...AR AND WRN TN. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NEWD RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MODE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK THIS UPDATE DUE TO POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
  3. Pretty early to be in a Day 5 outlooked area for severe. Discuss upcoming threats, potential season impacting factors and more in this thread.