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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Two days of wet and upper 40s during a May weekend is as ugly as it gets.
  2. high risk
    I think so. NAM Nest has been adamant that we'll stay in the mid to upper 50s, at least on the northeast side of town. HRRR seems to be coming around to the same idea.
  3. high risk
    I can confirm that there were pingers here a few miles south of you this morning.
  4. high risk
    And now a few small hailstones.
  5. high risk
    Thunder in Howard County.
  6. high risk
    good call!
  7. high risk
    Agreed. Ultimately, I think it's going to come down to the surface dew points. The NAM Nest and ARW2 keep dew points around 60 ahead of the line, and both have impressive reflectivity signatures. Other CAMs (including the HRRR) mix out the low-level moisture and end up with mid 50s dew points, and their simulated radars look very meh.
  8. high risk
    Really not sure what to make of the SVR chances this afternoon. Pretty much every CAM brings some sort of line or broken line through the area (with perhaps a few stronger cells immediately behind), but there is no agreement on intensity. Overall, based on simulated reflectivity, it's tough to expect more than a few SVR reports, but if we can maximize surface heating without mixing out the low-level moisture, perhaps we can have a modestly more interesting event.
  9. high risk
    Wednesday has some sneaky supercell potential for the northwest areas, perhaps HGR and points west and north of there. CAMs suggest that the greatest threat for a few cells is in PA, but there is a signal for northwest and western MD The wind profiles might not support TORs, but they would support storm rotation. NAM Nest and hi-res FV3 both show a narrow line ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. There are questions about the amount of instability, and some of the wind profiles look “weird”, but this could eventually end up as a SLGT day.
  10. high risk
    some lightning in the cell by Bowie
  11. high risk
    Thinking that there is some potential for lightning and small hail this evening and again Saturday afternoon. Good forcing during both periods with a little bit of instability and very low freezing levels - some healthy reflectivity signatures in the CAMs.
  12. high risk
    Yeah, the only strike in the entire area was in Howard County. #winning
  13. high risk
    It's also from a single deterministic GFS run that is inconsistent with its previous cycles and doesn't match what all of the ensembles are showing.
  14. high risk
    consistently with the previous posts, there seems to be some very, very good agreement across the various models (and their ensembles) for next week being very warm
  15. high risk
    Having the crapvection blossom into more significant storms is probably our best route to SVR east of the Potomac. This is what the HRRR and NAM Nest are showing. My concern all along has been that if we have to wait for the main line after dark, instability will be waning then.
  16. high risk
    Curious to watch the evolution over the next few hours. The main line to the west is going to have a tough time making progress towards the DC-Baltimore metro area until much later, but the 18Z HRRR and NAM Nest now agree on cells breaking out just southwest of DC in an hour or two and then racing northeast into central and northern MD.
  17. high risk
    It's worth noting that the HRRR has trended this morning towards the NAM Nest idea of a later show for those of us in central MD This isn't ideal, as while temps won't be plummeting after sunset, we need every degree of heating we can get, given that we're looking at very limited instability even at peak heating. Areas further west and north look to have a better shot at SVR due to more favorable timing, unless some scattered cells form out ahead of the primary line or if the line advances further to the southeast earlier.
  18. high risk
    Very reasonable. I'm still debating the 2 vs 5 for the TOR, but there is a modest consensus for a few decent UH tracks, so a 5 area from DC to east-central PA is quite possible.
  19. high risk
    Definitely more enthusiastic about this event than I was..... If convection can get organized prior to nocturnal cooling, SVR is definitely a concern, given the wind fields.
  20. high risk
    Yes, that happens, but damming isn't a concern for Thursday - strong low-level southerly flow is pretty much a certainty. I've been less enthused about this event due to potential poor timing, but there is more hope in recent guidance. The HRRR and some of the HiResWs have convection breaking out during the late afternoon hours. The wind profiles will be strong, so any storms that try to take advantage of peak heating certainly have a shot to be severe. And low-level convergence looks better than it did several model cycles ago. The potential for 1) widespread showers and storms forming too early and wiping out heating and/or 2) the front hanging back and having the main line roll through the DC/Baltimore areas after dark are still on the table. We need every bit of heating we can get at this time of year to maximize potential. Storms rolling through after dark simply won't have the warm sfc temperatures and resulting larger CAPE values to work with.
  21. high risk
    Recent model trends have me liking this setup a lot less. There is lead wave that arrives midday Thursday - this has the potential to produce showers and clouds that limit afternoon heating. It also leads to a cold front that has more of a southwest-northeast orientation; we do better with a more south-north orientation. There isn't much convergence along the front as currently modeled (especially on the NAM and CMC - it's better on the GFS), and the main upper system lags pretty far behind. There is still plenty of time to get things much more favorable, but it definitely has limited potential as currently progged.
  22. high risk
    Definitely keeping an eye on Thursday, as there is good model consensus for a very strong system in the east. Given the cold air mass in place early Wednesday, it's obviously uncertain how far north the higher theta-e air will reach Thursday, but a slightly slower system (as suggested by the Euro) would increase our chances of seeing appreciable CAPE.
  23. high risk
    Very clear convective threat with graupel and lightning Saturday. That is an intense upper system coming through at the right time of day - lapse rates are going to be terrific, and freezing levels will be low.
  24. high risk
    I think you nailed it. Most guidance shows an enhanced area of convective cells moving through the area during the mid to late evening, but the surface layer is really stable. Lapse rates are garbage, so even elevated CAPE will be small (as you noted), and the sfc-based CAPE to our south will be limited too (hence only a MRGL to our south). I agree, though, that there may be just enough elevated CAPE to get some lightning, although I'm far from sold on the potential. The thunder potential might perhaps be a big greater much later tonight, as the low-levels warm a bit, and lapse rates slightly improve. Coverage of cells will be limited, but anything could put out some lightning.
  25. high risk
    I think that the timing is fine, but most of the CAMs have very few (at best) storms in our area. I'm not totally sure what the negating factor is, but I think that the orientation of the system will lead to strongly veered flow in the low levels, which as we know is subsidence in our area and mixed-out moisture. Barring some changes, it's going to again be a central PA event.
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