high risk

LWX is pretty bullish in their afternoon AFD, and as Yoda mentioned, the MRGL risk now comes into the DC metro area. I still, however, haven't seen guidance showing surface-based instability here. I do see good mid-level lapse rates, so there will likely be some elevated cape, and I certainly believe that some lightning is possible. Until, however, I see some sfc-based instability being progged, I can't buy in to SVR potential until you get well south of the DC Beltway.

I'm always interested in high shear low CAPE setups, but it could be a high shear NO CAPE setup. I tend to trust the NAM nest when it keeps us cool at the sfc in these events, but if the HRRR is right, it would be a SLGT risk day for sure.

So we're in to the range of the NAM nest now, and it has been emphatic for several consecutive cycles now that a strongly forced convective line will move through the area early Wednesday evening. But it's also been emphatic that the line will not be surface-based, and most of the guidance I've seen agrees with that, so the chances of taking advantage of the excellent shear profiles seems low. That said, the GFS is trying harder to find a tiny bit of sac-based instability, so I won't totally close the door, even though I'm really hesitant to consider the GFS it wants to scour out the low-level cold air.

Great looking 500 map for sure. Right now, most of the guidance I've seen keeps the warm front south of the DC metro area, but it's obviously still 5 days out.....

I realize that the 12z parent NAM got everyone's attention, but it's a common rule that when the NAM parent and nest differ significantly, and the nest is line with other guidance, it shouldn't take anyone more than a half second to toss the parent NAM solution.