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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    very impressive winds here in southern Howard County just after 7pm
  2. high risk
    I'm guessing wants to see some actual obs/reports before deciding whether to go with a box..... I don't blame them.
  3. high risk
    With the 1630 upgrade to SLGT, it's time to move discussion of the convective line over to the severe thread.
  4. high risk
    There is zero doubt that a convective line will move through the region later today. I've been skeptical about the potential for winds to mix down, but given the reports coming out of Ohio, I guess I can't argue with the SLGT.
  5. high risk
    There is no argument that there will be a strongline of convection later Sunday moving across the area - the radar will look nice. My questions are whether it will have lightning and whether it can produce strong wind gusts. The forecast soundings just don't have enough instability for lightning - stronger wind gusts are a better possibility, although they should stay below severe limits. if instability is greater than progged, some lightning and gusts near the severe threshold would be on the table.
  6. high risk
    CAMs are very emphatic about a forced line of convection sweeping across the area later Sunday. Mixing down some strong winds to the surface and/or getting some lightning are both on the table although not particularly likely due to very weak instability.
  7. high risk
    Sunday looks like a really rotten day - still not clear whether we'll have periods of rain or just some occasional drizzle, but low clouds with temps stuck in the 40s seems fairly likely.
  8. high risk
    getting some huge drops that sound like small hail when hitting the ground with the southern Howard County cell
  9. high risk
    I do remember that event - another classic low cape, high shear fall event here, although this one had dew points into the low 70s. I don't think that there was much precip out ahead of the line, but it was definitely cloudy. The reports map looks way better than the event was - I remember being very surprised by the upgrade to MDT and very unimpressed by the line. Most of the reports in our area were of single trees being knocked down.
  10. high risk
    yeah, the shear profiles for later Tuesday have so much potential, but over the years, I've seen a ton of great fall setups fail here due to terrible lapse rates and instability. Any system at this time of year that is strong enough to have great accompanying wind fields usually generates a lot of cloud cover and showers well out ahead of the front.
  11. high risk
    I can actually say that I saw the 2001 tornado as it moved through Laurel. No one had cell phone cameras back then, so I have no pictures, but my view was very similar to this one: I'm definitely intrigued by the Tuesday potential, although fall events here are so tough to pull off due to limited instability.
  12. high risk
    He assisted at the cleanup at the Maryland Fire and Rescue Institute which was heavily damaged and suffered a heart attack while driving home that evening. Who knows if he would have suffered the cardiac episode had he not been at the scene.....
  13. high risk
    I'd love to see what the models actually look like today, as WPC has some big totals for our area in the next 24 hours and a SLGT risk for flash flooding overnight.
  14. high risk
    yeah, CAMs have a good signal for storms later this afternoon, mainly for DC and points south. As SPC notes, instability is weak, but shear is fairly good, and the forecast soundings show some good DCAPE, so I guess I agree that some gusty winds are possible.
  15. high risk
    Hello, SPC? Hello? Time to get that box issued.
  16. high risk
    I think you're in as good of a location as any. I'm very bullish on the SVR threat today, just more bearish than most on the tornado threat (although I think that a TOR watch will be and should be issued). The 18z LWX sounding should be a big help in understanding the magnitude of the threat.
  17. high risk
    it really is, although kmlwx and I are not quite in lock step today.....
  18. high risk
    I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat. There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me. We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection.
  19. high risk
    Many things to like about Thursday afternoon, but I'd sure like to see some stronger 10m wind speeds. There will be mesos for sure, but we need some better speeds at the sfc to really get a legit TOR event.
  20. high risk
    I don't really understand why the line was so meh. The 00z IAD sounding isn't bad. Maybe the CAPE is a bit tall and skinny, and deep layer shear is marginal, but I would have expected an organized line like that to have a lot more wind.
  21. high risk
    So the box is out...... but it's BLUE. I guess I'm not surprised (that it's not a red box) given the linear evolution, but the shear parameters argue that a few embedded mesos are quite possible.
  22. high risk
    SPC Mesoanalysis shows the supercell composite here increasing to 8 here over the next couple of hours. Given that and most of the CAMs showing convection developing by now, I'm assuming that's why they went with such high watch probs. I'd think that the convection to the west should do better as it moves east into the better environment, but we'll see.
  23. high risk
    Yeah, I'm a bit surprised, and I think that SPC is too. Latest HRRR still suggests that the convection firing near the I-81 corridor will still become a bigger deal further east in a few hours.
  24. high risk
    I only had to whine for 23 hours before SPC finally put us in the SLGT risk we warranted.
  25. high risk
    Hard to argue with this. I'm still more bullish for today than most, but I understand the question marks. For tomorrow, the potential is real. My only concerns are the weaker lapse rates (although they are now progged a bit better than earlier guidance) and potential weak sfc wind speeds (although the NAM nest seems to be weaker than some other models) I'd still prefer today's lapse rates with tomorrow's wind profiles, but good luck getting those two to align in this region.....
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