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high risk

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  1. high risk
    00z NAM nest and HRRR show a pretty active Sunday late afternoon/early evening in our area with a good amount of storms, especially for those north of Rt 50 Deep layer shear isn't great, but instability is good, and there is some low-level shear. edit: looks like a possible line on the front later Monday when better deep layer shear is in place
  2. high risk
    the structure was screwy, but I don't think it was a supercell, as the 00z IAD raob wind profile is pretty sad. Was a pretty storm, though, and I got some small hail in southern Howard County.
  3. high risk
    Reviewing the morning CAMs, several of them show storms developing in northwest VA or eastern WV and then moving southeast towards the RIC area. Not a whole lot of signal for the folks in central MD. I agree with SPC, though, that there is sufficient deep layer shear to support some SVR in any storms that organize.
  4. high risk
    Maue is right that the southeast is going to bake in the extended. You can see on the 500 map, though, that the ridge axis will hopefully be just far enough west to put our area in flow that's more northeast and spare us the worst of the heat.
  5. high risk
    The wet ground will likely prevent us from getting super hot, but this is going to be a warm air mass. The 850 temps will support low 90s here - maybe we'll chop off a few degrees on Sunday, but it seems like the local airports all have a decent shot at 90. The good news in the extended is that while a healthy eastern ridge favors well above average temps here, there will be a couple of northern stream shortwaves this week to knock the ridge down for a day or two, and then the mean ridge axis may set up a little further west and allow the mid-Atlantic and northeast to escape the major heat that affects areas south and west of here.
  6. high risk
    Lots of 90s showing up either in our area or close by over the next 2 weeks. While there seems to be a signal for northeast troughing as we go through June which may keep us cooler (if correct), the big western trough that will likely sit there for at least the next 10 days is going to pump up a healthy east coast ridge.
  7. high risk
    It's enough of a threat that SPC has outlooked us for MRGL. The hi-res guidance shows a few storms developing tomorrow afternoon and moving southeast, mainly affecting the I-95 corridor and points south and east. Instability is modest at best, but there is decent deep-layer shear and some downdraft cape to promote some wind gust potential.
  8. high risk
    NAM is showing mid to upper 80s for a lot of folks in the MD/VA area on Thursday (although it's quite cool for northern areas on Wednesday).
  9. high risk
    I don't have any feel for the HRDPS, but all of the hi-res guidance I've seen so far this morning points to storms here tomorrow mid-late afternoon. Some of the guidance breaks out some initial waves of storms that cut down on the instability and the potential for a more organized and intense late-day line; the NAM3 puts all of its eggs into a single basket with one strong line. Whether there is a SVR threat remains to be be seen, but "good" storms seem fairly likely at this point.
  10. high risk
    Tonight's NAM3 still shows a strongly-forced squall line along the front later Friday. Instability and deep-layer shear are modest, but it's probably sufficient as currently progged to warrant a MRGL risk when the new Day 2 SPC outlook is issued in a few hours. I still think that we could eventually end up as a SLGT, depending on how much heating occurs.
  11. high risk
    Friday has at least some "sleeper potential" for severe, especially for those along and east of the I-95 corridor. The NAM3 allows for some moisture advection and some heating ahead of the front and send a nice line through the area during the evening rush. The environment has only modest instability and modest shear, so severe would be isolated, but it would be a fun event. The GFS has a lot more cloud cover which limits heating ahead of the front and would be a much more 'meh' event.
  12. high risk
    yeah, surprised we haven't even seen an MD down there yet.
  13. high risk
    Ya know, I've been saying that we need to make round 1 wimpy to increase our chances with round 2, but maybe there is some tornado potential in our area with round 1? The shear profiles won't be as good as they will be later in the day, but they'll be decent, and we'll actually have better low-level instability.
  14. high risk
    I still think that the key is how widespread the wave of early-mid afternoon showers (storms?) is. HRRR is pretty aggressive with it, and the model takes us from that 73-75 range back to the upper 60s later in the day when the better forcing and best wind profiles arrive. If we can avoid widespread cooling with round 1, I think we're in much better shape for round 2.
  15. high risk
    not to split hairs, but at least the 13z outlook gets the entire region into 2% tornado probabilities. The initial outlook with <2% made no sense. I was bullish on my tornado probs last night, but with some indication now that there will be an early afternoon wave of showers, this may hurt our better instability later in the day and lead to slightly elevated storms with less tornado potential (but certainly heavy rain potential).
  16. high risk
    NAM nest seems like an outlier with only a mid-evening show. 00Z HRRR and current and earlier hi-res windows all support a late afternoon round 1 and then an evening round 2. There is still some healthy disagreement on whether the low-level shear is sufficiently "good" by late afternoon or if the better shear sets up after dark, but I would certainly expect a 5% tornado outlook in the early morning Day 1.
  17. high risk
    I'll agree with the props to LWX for the synopsis. Looking at the early components of the 00z suite, the HRRR wants to initiate some convection during the late afternoon in the area that would have slightly better low-level instability to work with than later storms - this might be an earlier show, with lesser severe potential later at night. The NAM nest avoids the earlier convection and has the show all being later at night, with an ominous radar showing cells and line segments. That said, the cape is very tall and skinny, which reduces the severe potential at least a little, but the low-level shear is still very impressive.
  18. high risk
    I was looking at it when you posted. Sunday night could be very, very interesting around here. As I noted earlier, the NAM keeps temps well up in the 60s Sunday night, so the usual big drop in overnight instability here won't be an issue. While the overall wind profiles have some veer-back-veer in them (which can limit the ability of cells to stay discrete), and the cape is a bit "tall and skinny", the low-level shear looks truly outstanding, and the NAM NEST certainly suggests some cells out ahead of the main line. Tomorrow's day 2 for Sunday/Sunday night will almost certainly extend slight risk into our area, and it could end up as an enhanced risk.
  19. high risk
    The overnight threat Sunday could materialize better than overnight threats usually do here if the NAM is correct. It shows strong southerly winds keeping temperatures here in the upper 60s through the night.
  20. high risk
    It does, but look at the 2m dewpoint field. It has dew points rocketing up into the 62-64 range as the precip approaches which allows it to blow up the convection. Actual dew points have been falling this afternoon, more in line with what the HRRR is showing.
  21. high risk
    The key for today appears to be the low-level dew points. NAM3 moistens us all afternoon, we end up with low/mid 60s dew points by late afternoon and a pretty unstable atmosphere. HRRR mixes and advects some low dew point air into our region during the afternoon, and we end up in the low 50s by late afternoon.
  22. high risk
    yeah, I could have clarified, although the NAM3 only goes to f60...... But while Friday does have some potential, I am talking about today.
  23. high risk
    I had been "way out" on this event, but the 12z NAM3 is making me reconsider, with some impressive signatures much further north than in previous runs along with greater instability and a shear profile that is lacking in low-level shear but would have decent deep-layer shear with a modest increase in sfc winds. This solution is an outlier for now, but I'll be curious to see whether the HRRR trends in its direction.
  24. high risk
    HRRR soundings showing about 500 sfc-based cape, and SPC has added our area into general thunder. Will certainly be interesting convection around this afternoon.
  25. high risk
    very low freezing levels. definitely possible.
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