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high risk

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  1. high risk
    I really, really want to be IN on this. Even with the potentially crappy lapse rates eating away at good instability, the wind profiles are impressive for mid June, as that's a nice trough approaching. But it's hard not to notice the fairly limited coverage of storms so far in this evening's NAM nest and HRRR runs.
  2. high risk
    Here is the midday 6/29/12 SPC outlook. Most of the DC area wasn't even in a SLGT at that time.
  3. high risk
    some of the guidance shows good lapse rates developing as the upper trough swings east, but others delay the mid-level cooling, leading to the crappy lapse rates that SPC mentioned in their initial day 2 outlook. The revised day 2 outlook, though, is very encouraging and while it's unclear if they're talking about the mid-Atlantic, they do mention supercell and attendant tornado threat in the east. As I mentioned earlier, the wind fields will definitely be strengthening later Thursday afternoon, so if we can get some local backing of low-level winds near boundaries, storm rotation is on the table.
  4. high risk
    Would love to see better lapse rates tomorrow for sure, but there are still a number of things to like. This is an anomalously strong June trough arriving at the right time of day. (We did really well with good dynamics on June 2). As a result, while the surface winds may be too weak or veered for widespread supercells, the overall wind profile is impressive, and the lift will be strong. Most CAMs show full heating tomorrow with temps approaching 90. There will be storms, and there is a good chance that at least some of them will be SVR. It's a SLGT day for sure, but in terms of what we need for ENH potential, the NAM nest mid-level temps are a bit cooler than the HRRR and would allow for more instability. And the best wind fields will overspread our area more towards 23z, so later initiation would be helpful - the low-level shear will really improve towards 00z if any storms are still around.
  5. high risk
    I see lots of giving up on today's storms, but the HRRR (and NAM nest) continue to blow up a lot of storms for the area over the next few hours as the forcing from the shortwave arrives, and boundaries become active.
  6. high risk
    guidance has the southern areas getting hit with the greatest coverage of storms. that has nothing to do with severe potential. any storms to the northeast will be in a better environment for svr; it's just the the best threat may be more towards PHL and NJ.
  7. high risk
    should be feeling the influence of that arriving shortwave over the next few hours, but as the MPD notes, the guidance really likes DC and points south (maybe we can say Rockville to Columbia and points south, based on HRRR trends?) for the most coverage. Maybe not looking so good for north-central MD.
  8. high risk
    Even if we came up a degree or two short of the convective temp, most of the CAMs show a modest shortwave approaching later this afternoon, which (assuming it's real) will certainly get the initiation job done. Without full surface heating, the about of instability probably won't be sufficient for widespread severe (although I won't rule out a few wet microbursts), but heavy rainers seem pretty likely with the high PWs
  9. high risk
    I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way. But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC. The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.
  10. high risk
    had some impressive downburst winds here in the College Park area.
  11. high risk
    # GFScancel
  12. high risk
    someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.
  13. high risk
    Yeah, while I do think we'll have some SVR today, the 12z NAM for Thursday would be a TOR day if its solution is correct.
  14. high risk
    Seems pretty likely that we'll wake up Sunday morning to a slight risk. Good instability + good deep layer shear + likely initiation puts us in the game for sure. Waking up Sunday to a SLGT for Monday seems quite plausible too.
  15. high risk
    Dynamics, ftw!
  16. high risk
    00z NAM nest really, really backed off on the 850 wind field - not sure yet if it's a blip or a legit trend. still possible that we see a few stronger wind gusts in late day convection Thursday. While the instability is going to be really meager, these strongly-forced events can occasionally surprise. It would help if the NAM nest is correct with more organized storms holding off until really late in the day, giving the maximum amount of time for moisture recovery and mid-level cooling.
  17. high risk
    New NAM nest still has north winds at DCA at 2pm Thursday. HRRR is a little quicker with the turn around back to southwest.
  18. high risk
    it's not really a choice, as the FV3GFS is now being distributed in the GFS data streams.
  19. high risk
    it's a nice looking simulated reflectivity signal for sure, but the forecast soundings out ahead out if have almost no instability to work with. I still think that some strongly-forced gusty showers (maybe some thunder?) are likely ahead of the front, but organized severe is going to be tough. The problem is still that the low-level wind fields don't turn around to south until early afternoon due to that departing low to our northeast.
  20. high risk
    from what I've seen in the 00z suite from the CAMs and lower-res models, while the NAMs are some of the wettest solutions, there is pretty good agreement for a good soaker.
  21. high risk
    NAM nest at 850 mb for Friday morning. Forecast soundings show a well-mixed PBL, so we're going to need a high wind warning in the higher terrain to the west and a wind advisory in the metros if this is correct. That's super rare for mid-June!
  22. high risk
    I have to admit that while I'm not yet "in", I'm more intrigued. The surface low moving up the eastern shore Wednesday night isn't as defined and is slightly faster now, so the disruption to our low-level wind field may not be as pronounced. Most guidance now quickly turns us back around to SW sfc winds Thursday morning. I have had doubts how quickly we can clear out after the early rain, but the downsloping may be enough to help clear things out, especially in VA which will also be further away from the low departing to the northeast. I still have some doubts about low-level moisture, and this looks like an event where the effects of 65 vs 61 dew points will be huge. Forecast soundings all have amazing deep-layer shear and better low-level shear than last night's runs, but the cape is "tall and skinny", so I wonder if updrafts will really be able to crank up in such a sheared environment. It's hard to not notice that UH track in the NAM nest that goes from DC to the beaches, but for now I think I agree with SPC that the better threat is west and northwest of DC where 1) sfc heating is more likely 2) higher dew points may pool 3) better lapse rates exist as the trough arrives from the west. Wondering if a wind advisory will be needed early Friday as a 45-50 kt LLJ overspreads the area. They'll need a high wind warning over the terrain of eastern WV if the NAM nest is right.
  23. high risk
    I'll bite. There is a bullseye of 1500+ cape in northern VA Friday, but it's because the NAM somehow creates a small pocket of higher 2m dew points that seems pretty fishy. No doubt about the awesome wind fields aloft leading to some excellent deep layer shear, but what really messes us up is the surface low that passes to our east Thursday morning and turns our winds to northerly. It does look winds will turn back to southwest during the afternoon, but I don't think it will be in time to bring enough warmth and moisture back into the area for widespread SVR. It does look like 500 sfc-based cape is a possibility, though, and with those wind fields, I wouldn't be shocked if SPC puts us in a day 3 MRGL for the possibility of a forced line of gusty showers/storms along the cold front. That surface low needs to either be a much weaker feature than currently progged or move faster to the northeast to give us a big SVR day Thursday.
  24. high risk
    you sick bastard.
  25. high risk
    Sure, if we can get low 60's dew points back on Thursday, and the front waits until mid-afternoon to move through, we could absolutely get a low-topped line of showers (or even t-storms) with some wind potential. But if we were looking at a more typical June 84/68, it would have been a MDT risk day here for sure.
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