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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Feeling a lot better about the chances of healthy rainfall totals on Wednesday after seeing the 00z NAM runs.
  2. high risk
    I love the GFS solution for the middle of next week in which the wave on the front passes too far southeast to give us rain but sufficiently kills convergence along the front in our area, leaving us in a giant precip hole. T
  3. high risk
    Gonna be a fascinating temperature forecast for Thursday for sure. It's pretty certain that Baltimore and points northeast will be cool, but I don't think it's as certain for DC metro. 12z NAM has low 90s in northern VA, with the gradient right along the Potomac. NAM nest has the gradient ever so slightly to the east.
  4. high risk
    so, that's a decent looking line to the west. The cape and shear are weak, so I'm not expecting severe, and the CAMs have generally been weakening it...... but the recent HRRR runs look better, and I could use some rain.
  5. high risk
    I've captured some links to relevant CWG tweets to explain why your phone went off: 1) https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1163645178428690437/ significant storm northwest of Alexandria moving southeast. 2) https://twitter.com/NWSSevereTstorm/status/1163648473989648384 storm continues to look good on radar, and some wind damage is reported, so the warning is issued further downstream (including Alexandria) 3) https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1163651801536761856 The part of the line segment heading towards Alexandria weakens, but new cells are firing near Alexandria, so the warning is continued. 4) https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1163653293228400640 The storms for which the warning was issued weaken significantly, and the warning is dropped. New cells fire south of Alexandria. No one wants needless warnings, but it's hard to find fault with the actions taken by the local NWS office. Maybe the warning was issued too far east, but that wouldn't change anything for Alexandria. Given the ongoing severe storm just upstream, they had to put a warning on it for the areas out ahead. We're just not good enough yet to know when a storm like that will collapse.
  6. high risk
    CAPE is good, and shear is marginal, but the combo overall is ok-ish, so I understand the slight risk. But it sure would be nice to see some better signals in the hi-res guidance. Maybe they're missing the potential impact of the MCV moving east, but they're certainly overall uninspiring (except for the NSSL-WRF).
  7. high risk
    Southern Howard County has really missed out on a LOT in recent weeks. I have lots of leaves down in my yard from stressed trees. Not that I have too much confidence in the guidance in such a weakly-forced pattern, but the CAMs today have most of the storms affecting DC and points south.
  8. high risk
    not much to add - just one more huge thumbs up for this lightning show.
  9. high risk
    terrific question. While most of the CAMs had some cells erupting in IL before 00z, there was some consensus that the biggest contributor to an MCS approaching the Appalachians tomorrow morning would be storms that fired in central IL this evening. And that development (while not SVR so far) appears to be underway, so it may still be on track. That said, that morning MCS tomorrow could end up further south than expected, although I'd still be concerned about the cloud shield further north.
  10. high risk
    I'm definitely not ready to be in for this. I do understand the SPC optimism based on the shear and the arrival of a well-timed vort. But I don't like that multiple CAMs show an MCS coming out of OH later tonight and then falling apart as it approaches around midday tomorrow. To be fair, the models that have that scenario do develop another round of convection later in the day, and it could certainly be severe, but we usually run into instability problems in those events due to the cloud shield or, in the worst case scenario, sfc outflow. I still think we can score on either 1) the original midday/early afternoon line or 2) new development later in the day , but I need to see the later CAM solutions look more favorable.
  11. high risk
    As always, we have these days when the guidance consistently shows multiple rounds, and some people start crying 'bust' when round 1 misses them.
  12. high risk
    I have no disagreement with the MRGL outlook. The soundings certainly support at least some downburst potential. If the NAM nest is correct with the amount of organization and resulting strong cold pool, we'd require a SLGT, but that simulation may be overdone.
  13. high risk
    While I do think we'll reach the convective temp, I'm not sure how relevant that is today. The hi-res guidance shows a bunch of storms firing out over the terrain to our west, driven by local circulations and enhanced by the approaching shortwave. While I'd like to see the HRRR as aggressive as the NAM, I feel pretty good about storm chances today, especially for those along and north of 66 in VA and 50 in MD on the west side of the bay.
  14. high risk
    really impressive lightning show to my southeast on that northern PG County cell
  15. high risk
    not quite severe here in College Park but pretty damn close
  16. high risk
    It's the likelihood of rainfall exceeding FFG, and FFG over part of our ahead is 1-2" in a 3h period, so I would agree that there is a 20-50% (as defines the MDT risk) of that happening within 25 miles of a point in the MDT zone.
  17. high risk
    over 200 wind reports in the MRGL area. Boxes definitely would have been justified in MD and OH. and thanks! The HREF is an underutilized tool on this board, but its probabilities are being generated by aggregating several really good CAMs, so it's almost always worth a look.
  18. high risk
    from https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href
  19. high risk
    6z NAM3 looked really good for mid-evening MCS, but the 12z has the storms weakening hard as they arrive. HRRR isn't as excited. That said, the HREF 4-hr probs of reflectivity exceeding 40 dbz within 20 km of a point for the late afternoon /early evening period over most of northern and central MD are upwards of 70%
  20. high risk
    Slight risk today. The CAMs are not in much agreement concerning coverage, but they generally agree on a 4-7pm window. (HRRR wants to initiate locally around 3pm). Looks like better coverage in MD than VA. Shear is not great (it’s lousy on the HRRR), but with the instability, several CAMs show marginal shear for some wind threat.
  21. high risk
    CAMs have been very consistent that coverage would be limited. That said, the HRRR has shown for several consecutive cycles now that storms will affect DC and points south and east over the next few hours.
  22. high risk
    The HRRR has been saying for a while now that if you live more than a small distance north or west of I-95 in MD, you're pretty much done for today.
  23. high risk
    storm initiation has occurred, and an MD has been issued. Sounds like a blue box is coming soon, although we may be at the northern end.
  24. high risk
    the problem is defining the "we". There will definitely be some storms in the area this afternoon, and at least a few of them will produce SVR reports, but coverage in the CAMs isn't awesome. Maybe the CAMs are undoing the forcing, and coverage will end up much greater, but it right now looks like a chunk of this forum will end up disappointed.
  25. high risk
    I really, really want to be IN on this. Even with the potentially crappy lapse rates eating away at good instability, the wind profiles are impressive for mid June, as that's a nice trough approaching. But it's hard not to notice the fairly limited coverage of storms so far in this evening's NAM nest and HRRR runs.
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