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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    HRRR shows storms for a lot of us later today, while the NAM nest does not. The hi-res windows show both ideas. It seems to come down to heating: the HRRR (and other models with aggressive solutions for our area) take us to the upper 80s before the forcing arrives. The NAM nest keeps us in the lower 80s. Right now, it seems too cloudy to make it up over 85....
  2. high risk
    Can I have my vote back? Trends in the guidance have been towards a less interesting event tomorrow - looks like a few isolated cells during the late afternoon (with still some SVR potential) and then perhaps more widespread non-severe storms after dark.
  3. high risk
    Boom! Actually, one interesting aspect of the NAM nest forecast is that it pops a sfc low later Wednesday night over the eastern shore, and whatever shortwave is causing that leads to a huge response in the low level wind fields. Instability is iffy, but the hodographs over eastern ME and DE look amazing. I have big doubts about whether this feature is legit, but there would be a threat of late night TORs east of here if it verified.
  4. high risk
    I think I'm IN. While the details among the CAMs so far this morning are not in agreement, they all have good storms somewhere close to the DC-Baltimore area with a combination of instability and shear that isn't amazing but will certainly justify a SLGT risk. If we could combine the NAM nest instability with the strong HRRR wind fields, we'd likely be looking at an ENH.
  5. high risk
    good point, although the NAM nest seems to be a fair amount higher, although it has much higher low-level dew points than the other guidance.
  6. high risk
    FWIW, I have no idea how real or not real Wednesday's threat is. It's a low-amplitude, fast-moving shortwave for which there is little model agreement.
  7. high risk
    We once had 102/78 with a nice EML.... and we got the 2012 derecho.
  8. high risk
    I'm gung ho on storms, as this is a strong push of colder air (upper 60's on Monday!). And it looks like there is just barely enough shear and instability (along with a relatively dry and well-mixed PBL, promoting strong downdrafts) to justify a SLGT risk. But I just don't see the shear for TORs, especially in the low-levels. I will say that the HRRR is a bit more aggressive than the NAM nest in terms of strengthening the wind fields later Sunday afternoon, so if storms are still around (i.e. a squall line hasn't swept through), I guess there could be some transient supercell structures, and since every storm in Howard County in the past few weeks spins something up, I won't potentially make an ass out of myself and say that there is no chance of a TOR.
  9. high risk
    I would think that’s for the New England part of the slight risk. The wind fields down here look pretty anemic: 15 kt or so at 850mb.
  10. high risk
    I was a bit surprised to see that this morning. Instability now looks better than what was progged yesterday, but the shear looks really meh. The soundings do have a fair amount of dry air beneath cloud base to promote strong downdrafts, and it looks like we’ll have a line of storms roll through at the favored time of day, so those are in our favor. I’m “in” for a line of storms in the late afternoon (no earlier than that, please - hosting an outdoor kids’ birthday party), but I’m very “meh” for widespread severe as of now, although a few stronger gusts seem possible.
  11. high risk
    PG and AA were definitely in the blue box yesterday, so I'm not sure what the "blank space" over those counties represents.
  12. high risk
    we're not going to meet the Level 5 Eskimo Joe criteria today for sure, but we'll get boxed, and there will be some wind reports.
  13. high risk
    Absolutely, The warnings in the Dayton area from the Wilmington, OH WFO Monday night were fantastic too.
  14. high risk
    To add on to EJ's reply, my discussion of gusting out was related to tornado potential yesterday. If you have a supercell and want it to make it to tornadogenesis, there has to be a balance between inflow and outflow. If the PBL gets too hot and deeply mixed, you get a lot of downdraft cape, meaning that the storm's downdraft can become very strong (rain falling into relatively dry air will evaporate, cooling the air, and forcing it to sink even more aggressively) and overwhelm the inflow. Supercells that are outflow-dominant are way less likely to produce tornadoes. Otherwise, you're right that sfc heating is a great thing for storms in general, as you're increasing instability.
  15. high risk
    I'm not calling for any type of high end event, but most people will either see 1 or 2 rounds of storms today (more isolated round 1 and more widespread round 2). Instability won't be impressive (regardless of cloud debris), but deep layer shear is decent and will improve, so I still expect SVR reports in the area to justify the slight risk.
  16. high risk
    I wasn't closely watching the radar yesterday evening, but the wind profiles in northeast MD up into PA favored splitting supercells, so perhaps a split occurred upstream, and the left mover went through that area.
  17. high risk
    Interesting scenario in the recent HRRR runs. There are a couple of lead cells (supercells?) in the mid-afternoon, followed by more widespread storms just before sunset. If we have any tornado potential today, it may be more with round 2. The storms with round 1 will be more discrete, but the wind profiles look lousy on guidance, and the PBL is fairly deep. Round 2 will have better wind fields throughout the column, a slightly cooler boundary layer, and perhaps some remnant boundaries to work with.
  18. high risk
    All true, but why are you posting a video taken in Colorado in 2016 in this thread??
  19. high risk
    I think SLGT, and I'm on board with your percentages. If instability were a little greater, we'd be looking at ENH.
  20. high risk
    The wind profiles looked better in model runs earlier today, so the UH tracks in the 00z suite don't look quite as impressive overall, but the overall shear Thursday will be a significant improvement over today.
  21. high risk
    Looking at the 00z NAM nest, HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows, the NAM nest has by far the lowest amount of coverage of storms.
  22. high risk
    realizing that most people didn't see any storm today out of the ENH risk and are demoralized, but the 00z suite has kicked out with the HRRR continuing to look good for tomorrow. Tomorrow's setup may actually be less complicated.
  23. high risk
    not gonna lie - that sounding showing less instability than progged (along with the HRRR runs) is giving me concern. but I'm absolutely not ready to call "bust"
  24. high risk
    it's also key that we're way hotter, and the LCL heights are much higher. That deeply mixed, relatively dry PBL would cause any supercells this far south to gust out quickly.
  25. high risk
    We're almost certain to get a blue box later. I agree that the TOR threat is limited even in PA, but while the low level winds are meh, the overall shear is decent. So I see SPC's thought that any modification of the low-level winds by the front or storm interactions could lead to a TOR.
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