Bob Chill

Is Dec 09 really the last time DCA had a warning level event in Dec? I think it might be my yard as well. I had a decent event in Dec 13 but I dont think it was 5"+. I'll have to check my records but a good Dec snowstorm has been really rare the last 10 years. Dec 2010 was almost a great storm but we all know how that went down. Lol

Yep, this is my favorite site but only goes back to 96 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Here's what I'm talking about from another year... a very good one. Lol. We want the western side of the npac to move towards this. 02-03 success was driven by a persistant +pna more than the ao/nao. Some similarity in the eastern npac right now. Heh.

Here's a visualization. Cool down the pdo region around Japan to central Aleutians and leave everything else as is in the npac and it sure looks good to me. Optimal comes to mind. Including the BN region off of baja/socal... this plot is moving towards perfect npac conditions. Only loose end is cooling down the area between Japan and the Aleutians. 2 months is plenty of time.

I'm optimistic this year and definitely like what I see but as we all know... good or bad lr looks in Oct are often misleading. Very misleading... haha Npac sstas are hinting towards potential favorable persistence high low placements. Chicken or egg argumentas to what drives what between the 2 but persistence can be real and a good indicator of predominant patterns. If by mid November the npac height and ssta patterns still look good I'll go ahead and switch to full weenie mode.

Just watching the ens guidance over the last week has me thinking the first freeze is coming pre-Halloween for all but DCA. Makes sense. Over extended summer flips on a dime and the cold Canada pattern adjusts its aim toward the EC. I considered going earlier on first freeze contest but I went with persistence. Not making any calls but something to watch.

I'm becoming more interested in the anomalous AK ridge happening lately. That's actually a decent feature for cold outbreaks in the US. Maybe we get an enso climo favored Aleutian low with a -epo ridge over the top. Even better would be a +pna ridge connecting to the -epo ridge. Then throw in low heights in socal undercutting the +pna and storm track across the southern tier. Lastly, having some northern energy riding down the massive -epo/+pna ridge that phases with the southern stream. Yea, that would work. Only half of my post is in jest. This is a legit consideration we'll know more about in a few months. Arctic amplification has a recurring theme over the last decade. Location seems to move around year to year but it's been happening a lot. Nasty AK ridge is a net + in these parts.

With the recent performance of the SAI, it seems we actually want to root for a Siberian furnace and no snow at all. So far so good.

That's not exactly true. We've wasted ungodly amounts of "great setups" and walked into many decent events with a crap pattern. The MA's snows are built around chaos more than climo/patterns. 13-14 was a bad snow pattern for our region and it couldn't stop snowing. 93-94 shows what happens with the same pattern in the other direction. Ultimately, the only gold standard for good snow seasons is an active southern jet. Getting attacked from the SW is where it's at. Not clippers, or jumpers, or redevelopers. We need a slug of moisture from the TN valley to come right at us. Warm enso favors those type of precip events. I feel good about this year in that regard but making calls or getting excited in Oct isn't something I do anymore.

Para gfs takes the center basically dead center over DC.

We're on the same exact page probably. Cold ninos are weak or mod and come with a neg ao/nao. Back half of 02-03 was kinda weird because when blocking relaxed the +pna stepped in. It was a great door to door nino winter with no extended warm spells. PD2 was refreshed several times into March and snowcover days late in the season were remarkable. I can easily see how we can go below normal temp wise but it will require the string of +ao/nao Decembers to end this year. Need to start off on the right foot. I'll reserve enthusiasm until I can see it inside of 2 weeks.

I don't think temp analogs pre 2000 are as useful anymore unfortunately. I could see a BN DJF if persistent blocking sets up early. Won't know how that breaks for at least 6 weeks. If the ao/nao are positive during Dec then the chances of BN DJF goes down significantly. I'm just sharing my guesses. I'll get excited for cold and snow when things look good at reasonable leads. Basically when I'm eating turkey and staring at ens runs with a big red ball at h5 over Greenland and/or the pole. A big blue ball in those areas and I'll keep my shorts and flip-flops handy

Nino's generally aren't cold winters. Weak is the best chance. Just going off recent Nino's since 2000 and warmer background conditions. Even with 09-10's exceptionally high snowfall the winter itself wasn't very cold. The Feb back to back storms melted fast. Same with the Dec storm. We did have some solid cold in Jan/early Feb tho but it was also a record blocking year. I don't put much stock in seasonal models when it comes to temps but the cfs and CanSips are AN DJF. Jamstec is also AN iirc. That's not why I think this winter will be at or above normal though. Just going off of climo and the fact that the northern hemisphere has been running warm for years in general.

Damn NPZ. Blackwater is rocking. Every time I've been there I could easily stand on the ledge where right now it would be a Niagara barrel ride.

I like everything I see so far. Broad brush looks like not a particularly cold winter. Prob AN DJF but to get warning level events we either need lots of luck or a southern stream. Unless there's some sort of gross reversal with enso, seems like odds favor at least one or more warning level event. Prob back half of winter for the close burbs. Total wag but AN Dec temps could spoil a good track storm. If I lived in the northern tier I would be cautiously excited already. We can hold off on Dec analysis for another 6 weeks tho. No sense worrying about things that far out in time.