Bob Chill

Our best combo is west based mod nino. I was just saying that one could happen and we get the shaft anyways. With neutrals we need blocking of some sort. Either neg ao, nao, or epo. Another good teleconnection is a +pdo. That usually translates to a +pna. That works here too. I wouldn't worry much at all until we get into Nov. That's the earliest we can judge teleconnections and even that's a stretch.

Nino's favor an active southern stream so it surely helps. But neutral or even nina's can have an active southern stream at times. 95-96 was a mod nina and it crushed the region. Winters like 13-14 are better than Nino's for activity but that was lucky becuase the closest match to the ul pattern is 93-94. That one was far more ice and crap than 13-14. Lucky side and unlucky side cant be illustrated any better. Last winter was very unlucky. Sure, we can blame it on enso but lots of areas very close around us did quite well. The south did well too. That could have easily been here too but it didn't break right. I'm not saying that I don't prefer Nino's because if I had a choice it's an easy one. Then again, we could easily have a mod west based nino and strike out too. We're probably due for that. Lol

Nah, I'm itching to not need a shower after I pick up the mail or take the trash out. Baby steps. Fall is my favorite season to enjoy weather. Winter is my favorite to track weather. I don't want to rush through the enjoyable season.

Won't know until mid-late Sept at the ealiest. Right now everything looks good enough. We need luck more than we need a nino. Sure, nino helps but good snow winters are loaded with good luck and bad winters are luckless. No predicting that piece of the pie until you're shoveling.

Odds increasing of our first late summer continental airmass dropping innext week. Still a bit early so it might not make it here. Low dews and low 80's sounds good on paper though.

Considering it's August and even the greatest super computers in world can't get it right more than a couple weeks out let alone a couple months....I'm pretty optimistic. Nino's are like the Field of Dreams. Build it and they will come. But usually not until the second half. If we score between Dec 1st and Jan 15th then my guess is climo doesn't stand a chance. Even with 125% of climo snow, I can accurately predict that there will be a whole bunch of posters unhappy because the bay didn't freeze shore to shore and even Dec sun can melt the roads when it's below freezing. And it's going to be warm of Christmas.

I'm jammed through 7/20 but anytime after that could work.

Best beach week ever. Stayed on a no drive beach in a sick building. We will return. 13 hour drive is the only downside but worth it. 90 in the shade already. Can wait to mow the field of bad dreams. Been a long couple months for me. Getting back to normal though. Whatever that means. Lol

Just got back from a week in Daytona. It's much cooler and more pleasant there than this polluted furnace. I should have stayed another couple months.

Yea, the thought of a game 7... against the pens no less.... was something I didn't want to watch. Funny how this year has gone. Low hype and no pressure all year after being all hype and pressure for many previous years and the caps are now 4 wins from the playing for the cup. Getting past TB will need a healthy lineup. They're too fast to keep up with shorthanded.

Hey man! Just popped in today for the first time in a while. Things are settling down for me. Moved to CT huh? I go there at least 6 times a year because my sis lives in Weston. It's a cool place. I really like Devils Den nature preserve. Great place for a hike and it's right around the corner from her house. Who's going to run the panic room now? If we get another Nina our entire sub will BE the panic room so we may not need it next year. LOL

You've probably heard us talk about the spring barrier period for long range enso stuff but for those who haven't, spring is a notoriously terrible time for long range models to predict next season's enso conditions. Once we get into July, seasonal guidance gets much better at predicting trends and even then...lol. Take a look at April 17's plumes and verification. July got the trend right but the lead is still too long for magnitude. My total WAG is neutral and if it is, just hope for a +PDO.

One bias (or problem) with enso models is the spring barrier period. Long range enso stuff doesn't even start to become a good tool until June and that's just the beginning. Long range enso is so inaccurate in the spring that you would probably come out ahead picking the opposite phase of the Cfs and eps plumes coming out over the next few months. I find no value discussing upcoming year enso conditions before mid summer.

Unfortunately this storm thread sucked for me. I had the flu and it was the sickest I've been in my adult life. When we lost power I had 25 pounds of blankets piled up and I layed there shivering in the dark wondering why God was punishing me. Great storm....terrible experience.

If you look on the bright (cold) side and own a house....I'm not mad that I haven't had to mow my lawn yet.