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Bob Chill

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About Bob Chill

  • Birthday July 15

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGAI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Rockville, MD
  • Interests
    Weather & Beer

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6,974 profile views
  1. May Banter

    Yea, the thought of a game 7... against the pens no less.... was something I didn't want to watch. Funny how this year has gone. Low hype and no pressure all year after being all hype and pressure for many previous years and the caps are now 4 wins from the playing for the cup. Getting past TB will need a healthy lineup. They're too fast to keep up with shorthanded.
  2. May Banter

    Hey man! Just popped in today for the first time in a while. Things are settling down for me. Moved to CT huh? I go there at least 6 times a year because my sis lives in Weston. It's a cool place. I really like Devils Den nature preserve. Great place for a hike and it's right around the corner from her house. Who's going to run the panic room now? If we get another Nina our entire sub will BE the panic room so we may not need it next year. LOL
  3. May Mid/Long Range & Disco

    You've probably heard us talk about the spring barrier period for long range enso stuff but for those who haven't, spring is a notoriously terrible time for long range models to predict next season's enso conditions. Once we get into July, seasonal guidance gets much better at predicting trends and even then...lol. Take a look at April 17's plumes and verification. July got the trend right but the lead is still too long for magnitude. My total WAG is neutral and if it is, just hope for a +PDO.
  4. April Mid/Long Range & Disco

    One bias (or problem) with enso models is the spring barrier period. Long range enso stuff doesn't even start to become a good tool until June and that's just the beginning. Long range enso is so inaccurate in the spring that you would probably come out ahead picking the opposite phase of the Cfs and eps plumes coming out over the next few months. I find no value discussing upcoming year enso conditions before mid summer.
  5. The Psuhoffman Storm

    Unfortunately this storm thread sucked for me. I had the flu and it was the sickest I've been in my adult life. When we lost power I had 25 pounds of blankets piled up and I layed there shivering in the dark wondering why God was punishing me. Great storm....terrible experience.
  6. April Mid/Long Range & Disco

    If you look on the bright (cold) side and own a house....I'm not mad that I haven't had to mow my lawn yet.
  7. April 7-8 snow event

    You and I have remarkably similar takes on NWP. I've said this before but I'll reiterate because I often use the short/med/lr terms but it is subjective Short range = 72 hours and in but 72 is the outer limit of short range Med range = 72-144 hours but 120-144 is the outer limit. Long range = day 6+ This year has had a remarkable number of "events" break the wrong way at all ranges. Especially med range but I don't ever get invested beyond 5-6 days at the longest. Interested in long range? Hell yeah. Bummed or mad at NWP when something vaporizes beyond 5 days? Rarely if ever.... We've had years where things break right more often than not and they become a benchmark for future expectations. But our grading is flawed by emotions. I'm as guilty as the next guy at times. The 13-15 stretch had many med range threats morph into different events but considered them a "win" with guidance. In reality, the med range busted horribly but since it snowed anyway it was a "win" so NWP performance got higher grades than they should have. This year NWP is getting bashed in the med range because we barely caught any breaks this year. Lol. Verification scores in general are always improving even if very gradual but our grading scale goes up and down based on ground truth in tiny little Itty bitty postage stamps on the planet called our yards.
  8. April 7-8 snow event

    The high tire pressure to the north is pressing into the low oil pressure to the south. Need more horsepower though.
  9. April 7-8 snow event

    Right where we both want it though right? We may both be right in this one. 12z tomorrow should end big jumps. If we're both striped then this one is probably for real. I think the chances of your getting fringed is pretty low. The chance of me getting fringed with the r/s line is higher
  10. April 7-8 snow event

    Yea, gfs is a great run. Sure, less qpf but we're still not inside of 48. This is a big battle of spring and winter air. The war zone is going to produce. No doubt in my mind. Such and interesting event.....
  11. April 7-8 snow event

    Gfs bought us more room. Heh. More convinced that jumping on trends and the euro was premature. Very good to see. I'm becoming a believer.
  12. April 7-8 snow event

    This is no doubt the most anomalous setup I've seen in April for snow here in 12 years since I started wasting my time on this madness. 60 degree dews streaming up from southern va and surface and mid level winds pumping down sub freezing 850s and 32 degree dews...and they are clashing right overhead. 3k nam is a touch too far north but who cares. This is a sick fronto panel. Woah.
  13. April 7-8 snow event

    It was a wall hangable sounding for April. Hall of fame kind of stuff. @losetoa6 Totally agree and said something similar yesterday. Quite a clash of airmasses. The atmosphere is naturally more energetic in April. The same progression can happen in Jan with half the results just because of background conditions, insolation, and dew points. Warm, moist, and unstable air feeding in from the south like what we are seeing is very interesting...and unusual. Snowfall could potentially be convective of sorts. Goes high res imagery could look pretty neat on Saturday.
  14. April 7-8 snow event

    Nam is like the nba D league. Always a step below the pros.
  15. April 7-8 snow event

    I want the GFS to be right because it's basically below freezing all day during daylight on Sat for much of the region. Highly dependent on precip falling between 18-0z but it would kick ass to have a sub freezing daytime high. The magnitude on paper will be screwed because it's 42 at 2am but we can use this as material for dummies to STFU for many years to come when the blanket "April blah blah blah" posts happen in the future. Anomalous things happen. Even if only once every 100 years, it proves that blanket statements are weak and dumb sometimes.
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