Bob Chill

Yea, we blew our anomalous luck load for the next 10 years with that winter. Get ready for another single digit snowfall year. It's coming.

I'm just a hack with tropical but there are some general features for a gulf landfall that we need to have tropical impact that actually looks and feels tropical. We need a strong storm #1 and this won't hit that criteria. SW upper level steering flow with weak ridging is another. Can't have the storm dilly dally through the deep south over land. It needs to beeline. This sorta has that. Getting absorbed into a feature embedded in the westerlies works well for heavy rain but we all want low level clouds screaming along and a defined center keeping things unstable to "get the tropical feel" going. The biggest disadvantage to a gulf landfall is the thousand miles of land a strom has to cover. Much better when you get a cat 5 right up the mouth of the bay and a left turn at point lookout.

Couple things I don't like much about any impact is that it's only a TS at landfall so the center of circ is going to disintegrate fairly quickly over land. The upper level energy looks to get sheared apart with the approaching front so that's a net negative too. Don't get me wrong, we could get some good rain out of it but it won't have much of a tropical feel like other gulf landfalls where the storm is much stronger and more organized at landfall. With those there's still upper level and low level circulation associated with the system as it either approaches or crosses our latitude. Those type of events typically have discrete cells popping and training east of the center. This particular event looks like basic overrunning rain associated with a frontal passage that is enhanced with tropical moisture.

Can't make it this year. I'll be in Maine.

Should be CG. It's very accurate. Even the "thunder circle" that expands outwards from the strike is very accurate. It's a great site.

Yep, no lightning https://www.lightningmaps.org/#y=39.2396;x=-77.612;z=9;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

It hasn't stopped raining near Luray since it started. Still coming down. The river went from low and clear to raging chocolate in just a few hours. Numerous road closures out here.

Campground is 100' above the river on a hill top so were all safe. I was wading before the rain hit. Great fishing but the river is going to be trashed after this. Lol

Omg. I'm camping south of Luray. Heaviest rain I've seen in years. Under a FFW. At least 2-3" has fallen. If not 4+ lol.

My big multi family annual camping trip is next thurs-mon near Luray. I have mixed feelings. It doesn't look that hot so that is good but the reason for that is rain so there's a tradeoff. None of us mind rain too much because we have good gear but mutiple days of lots of rain would kinda suck. It's a chips fall situation either way. Not liking guidance trends though.

If we get even a TS making landfall east of the MS river timed with an approaching front from the west we can have some fun with multiple EF0-1 quick hitting spinny things. And training rains of course. GFS/GEFS likes the idea of something running up the gulf but height pattern in the east is showing suppression depression for our area. I suppose it would be prudent to wait until a storm actually forms before thinking about that though. LOL

June and July is when skill starts to emerge with LR enso stuff but the May ECMWF plumes still show a favored weak el nino event. The ECMWF hasn't really wavered that much the last few months. Latest plumes: Current conditions in the EP region is pretty much enso neutral but it wouldn't take a lot of work with the trades to warm the region. A fairly large area of BN sst's in the PDO region going on right now. At a quick glance it looks like the pac is primed for a -PDO/+enso going into the fall. CANSIPS looks half decent @ 500mb for DJF both individually and the 3 month average. CFS is going hog wild with a -AO/NAO combo in Dec but trusting the CFS is like leaving a bowl of skittles in a room with a first grader and expecting them not to filch a couple. lol CFS Dec: I like the CANSIPS 3 month mean. Dominant +PNA and aleutian low pattern through met winter. CFS agrees with the +PNA pattern as well. The upper level pattern would most likely favor normal to BN temps and probably fairly active with storms in general. We still have 6 months to watch our hopes and dreams disintegrate but for right now it sure looks better than last winter. Not that it takes much to be better than last winter...lol. I'd be fine with a +PDO/+PNA and just lets everything play out.

Ground zero report. Not much wind. Decent CG. No hail. Torrential rain

Had a burst of skittle sized hail before the rain unleashed. Good bit of CG too so decent storm by all metrics. Had some sidewalk rivers for a while. If another batch of heavies comes through then flash flooding will come easy for the prone areas

If I knew for a fact that it would happen then yes. But I can't so it's a bad trade. I'll take a pleasant summer and hope for luck/timing with tropical. If the heat ridge is centered west like the climate models are showing we could do fairly well with severe or just storms in general. Like your recent ring of fire post. Big storms riding up over and down can do us right. A derecho is like a tropical storm packed into 30 minutes. Lol