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Bob Chill

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About Bob Chill

  • Birthday July 15

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Rockville, MD
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    Weather & Beer

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  1. Time sensitive but good god look at the CG strikes around baltimore. Busiest I've ever seen https://www.lightningmaps.org/#y=39.0049;x=-76.6877;z=8;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;
  2. I guess I should expand on why I think August is dead... Around 5 days ago, the long range 5 day h5 means looked ok. The kicker trough seemed to be moving on and a decent ridge sandwich between the western conus and eastern ATL was showing up: That 5h looks is ok. Not great but ok and not one that would boot everything away. Fast forward 5 days and here's how the period is really going to shake out: The recurring eastern trough pattern isn't breaking and with that goes our chances. Obviously, until something actually develops, going into detail about the conus pattern is putting the cart before the horse. But to imho- August is pretty much a high chance at a shutout. Maybe that changes in Sept.
  3. Here's my latest take...lol August is dead for EC impacts. September will provide some excitement with potential and actual tracking but in the end nothing touches my yard. Even though it will miss my yard, I'll be thankful that I had something to pay attention to in Sept because it helped pass time before the first freeze contest starts.
  4. Hypothetical Harvey would probably keep approaching underneath Irene and then get pulled into the EC somewhere because the kicker trough would be gone and the big ridge approaching from the west would draw it in.
  5. The "improved" h5 pattern than ens were showing a few days ago isn't looking as good now. The kicker pattern is holding on longer. GEFS and EPS look similar @ d10 and it's not what you want to see if you're hoping for land impacts from tropical. 12z gefs pretty much unanimously shows all fish down the line. Which makes sense because the atl ridge is pretty far east combined with a mean trough in the east conus would support those solutions.
  6. Anyone get the feeling avanti is no longer on haitus?
  7. This unusual amplified pattern won't last much longer. There just no way we skate through August with a constant barrage of troughs and continental air. When it breaks it's probably gone for several weeks or longer. Probably good timing too as we enter tropical climo prime time. I only get interested when we're in the game with a specific invest or td. Hopefully something breaks over the next 2-3 weeks.
  8. I was looking at the day 10-15 ens h5 means today and thought it look ok. The kicker pattern breaks down and appears to be a better look for landfall if something were to approach the US.
  9. We've lost a lot of ground for even a weak nino at this point. Still another 2 months before we can officially call it but the writing has been on the wall for a while now. All seasonal guidance has backed way down. CFS is now cold netural. ECMWF plumes aren't out yet for August but the ground truth pretty much says forgetaboutit.
  10. That crappy upper level pattern has been consistent on guidance for a couple weeks. The tradeoff is comfortable temps in the middle of the dog days. In my personal list of priorities, comfortable mid summer temps are always higher than canes.
  11. Yea, I kinda loved that run. Get the center to approach like that while bumping into a fropa and I'll call it a wrap for the season.
  12. I tend not to care much about tracking development when something is thousands of miles away. OP runs will change quite a bit if it actually becomes a TS or cane. I know you know this. Just stating the obvious. UL pattern looks like crap on all guidance for an EC hit. May as well root for the GOM.
  13. I'll gladly root for a gulf landfall and have the trop system get absorbed into a ML trough. That can work here. GEFS has good agreement in strength and placement @ 120. Even with the crazy op runs recently, there wasn't much ens support. Biggest cluster was a scraper or offshore. Today is a new twist with the GEFS shifting towards a track through the GOM. Get a defined system into the GOM without hostile shear and crazy things can happen.
  14. Stats like that mean nothing. We've had no flooding rains, flooding tides, and widespread wind damage. Complete DISASTER