Bob Chill

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    Rockville, MD
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    Weather & Beer

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  1. Yea, got squished by the NS but setting up for an amplified storm after. Iterations of all these discrete features are going to cause quite a bit of run over run changes. We need to get one inside of 5 days before we can discuss anything specific. Anything beyond 5 days is prob a phantom. The ideas are plentiful but the most likely to be right idea hasn't shown up yet.
  2. Here's the visual. Muli param 6z control and h5 anom @ hr144. This is an incoming snow event for sure. 0z Icon was amped up. Euro control is more sheared but provides much more wiggle room imo The building PNA ridge on the heels and atl confluence in front is a classic progressive setup for the MA. The slower amped solutions introduce to many potential problems. A quick sheared cold hit is preferred over gunning for a miller A. Not that what I think means a damn thing. I just prefer the easy road at this point.
  3. I'm just looking at it the same way I look at the gfs beyond d7. Gives you a general idea of possibilities without having to slice and dice all the ens panels. EPS agrees that potential activity increases as we move into Feb. Seeing the gfs and euro control advertising similar setups is a step above completely random shotgun chance. We'll see how it goes
  4. @Ji How about the 0z euro contol? 3 events and 1 big one. How about the 6z control? Incoming event just beyond hr144 The way I see it is if we actually go get 3 chances that are mostly driven by a +pna then one is prob going to work out. No guarantees in this dumb game of course. The upcoming chances appear to be better set up than any jacked up chance we've had.
  5. Agree. It's slowly getting interesting again and under 10 days. There like 9 shortwaves and 6 surface lows on gfs. I'll go out on a limb and say it didn't just nail it... but it does show mostly rain so could be right.
  6. I wish it was like 3 days closer. Lol. Ye ole rabbit hole won't get me... yet
  7. Gfs doesn't look much different in the upper levels than the icon @ hr120. Should be a better run. Still an eternity away. Just need the building ridge out west to play nice
  8. @Ji did you look at the 12z euro control? It actually looks just like the gfs with troughs carving, multiple snow events (3), and the best (relatively speaking) entrenched cold towards the end of the run since the first half of Dec. I don't have any strong feelings either way for Feb. I will say that it doesn't look hostile yet. Maybe even a little encouraging...
  9. Half decent +pna driven pattern showing up near the end of Jan into Feb. It's a process and may not yield immediate results but it's no doubt far better than where we've been since mid Dec. A +pna driven pattern in Feb can actually produce without a -ao/nao. CFS/CanSips/euro weeklies all imply a +pna of various magnitudes for the balance of Feb. PSU covered this in great detail this year already but if you look at all the 5"+ storms in Feb with a +ao/nao nearly every one is +pna driven. ETA: considering how this winter has gone start to finish I'm expecting the good looks to deteriorate as we move forward. However, the gfs started showing cold amplification in fantasyland a couple days ago and hasn't wavered since. That + the ens generally agreeing carries some weight. One decent warning level storm and it would erase quite a bit of the nonstop gut punches over the last 6 weeks.
  10. The only real flaw since mid Dec is we can't buy a deep/cold airmass to save our lives. Precip has been plentiful and some of these west tracks could have been decent mixed events. The long range through all of Jan has been too cold. Until that changes our luck is unlikely to change. I'm not punting the rest of winter because that's silly. Winter didn't even begin in 2015 until mid Feb and ended up being a great winter. It all started with that arctic front. Anything can happen and nobody knows how Feb will go. Personally, I'm not getting invested anymore until a cold pattern is either in place or knocking on the door.
  11. Lol- yea, and i was so confident in it that I said it would be at least Wed before we know if we stand a chance. That was the only error in my post because it only took until Monday night to rule it out. I'm not even looking at ens run for more than 2 minutes now. It's not even worth that much time. Maybe mid Feb gets better. I'm ready for spring, fishing, and camping now. I'm done with this year unless something believable gets inside of 5 days.
  12. The only way we pull this off is if the upper and mid level lows stay south and then pass east. Overhead or nearby or anywhere west at our latitude is a complete fail. I'll reserve my excitement for when all ops agree on the south then east track
  13. 0z was much better. Angle of attack on the primary and transfer was much more favorable. Events like this usually drop some snow even with a west track. With the mids torching in front the only way to get real snow is to be west or nw of the low at all times. 0z was trying to do that. 12z isn't even close
  14. Just like any regional forum... the highest concentration of posters live in the densest population areas and vice versa.