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Bob Chill

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About Bob Chill

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Rockville, MD
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    Weather & Beer

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  1. Cohen's last post in his AER blog said something very similar to my thoughts about low arctic sea ice degrading the usefulness of the SAI post 2007. I wasn't too off the wall when I brought it up. It does seem like this year is hinting towards increased odds at early winter blocking. Still a long ways to go but there are some signs showing up at least. We'll know much more in the next 6 weeks.
  2. We know more once the vort comes on shore. Better sampling and stuff.
  3. Man, all ops and ens are on the -AO train going into early Nov. I scanned the monthly AO data and there's only 1 winter (98-99) that had a +AO after Nov being -.7 or lower. Every other winter had the average AO negative for DJF. Is this the year that ends the +AO streak?
  4. That's just a byproduct of the algorithm. The area in SEVA with snow is 35 while the close burbs here are 37. 850's are cold AF. I'll wait until 0z before starting a thread.
  5. GFS is wasting no time throwing out d10+ fantasy snow. 18z happy hour back to its old ways. Good times.
  6. Add the 12z euro to the list. Now we need to figure out how to squeeze some flurries out of it.
  7. March 14 and 15 will go down as the best back back to back deep winter Marches in my life. I still (hopefully. Lol) have a few more decades left but I doubt i see a repeat. The thing about March though is even with highs well below freezing, snow still easily melts off of pavement and basically evaporates on south faces. Sun angle is real. Still some pretty incredible cold smoke events in those 2 winters. 15 was probably the best back loaded winter ever in this area. Didn't even get going until valentine's day...after suffering through superbowl sunday...despair was abundant to say the least at that point...haha
  8. A few million people will strongly agree on Monday night.
  9. That's pretty much exactly where I'm at too. I would like Nov as a whole to end up looking like a decent winter pattern. Not expecting meaningful snow or anything. Just hoping that if peristence is going to be a theme this winter, hopefully a good Nov base state translates into a decent start to met winter. That and I'm pretty sick of AN temps during the turkey day to Xmas period. We haven't had a front loaded winter since 10-11. Spending the first 30-45 days of met winter analyzing 15 day pattern change prayers is f'n annoying. The personality of winter isn't always captured with snow totals. I'd be completely satisfied with 75% of climo snow if it all comes before Feb and we have enough cold to safely skate on ponds or the canal. Getting a 6" event in Dec or Jan that doesn't melt even on south facing hills for a week or more is what I'd consider "deep winter" in the MA.
  10. This is unusual and a great example of why I think models are having a very hard time deciphering where we are going into Nov. 5 day h5 mean shows AN heights in our area: But 5 day mean 2m temps are BN. I can't think of a time I've ever seen 5 day mean AN heights and BN temps. My guess is some members are showing some fairly extreme cold solutions in the mix:
  11. It will be interesting to see what shakes out the first week of Nov. GEFS teleconnection spread is pretty huge right now. AO ranges from -3 to +2 SD's out in time. Ensemble mean has so much spread it's hard to figure out which way things are going to go. GEFS d10-15 flipped to ridging in the east last couple runs and now 12z basically says flip a coin. lol. 12z gefs does show the cold dump signal into the the upper MW so I guess you could say there is "some" support for the op. I do like seeing AN heights around the pole and GL consistently showing up on the ens in early Nov. That's probably the single most important takeaway regardless of whether we ridge or trough down the line.
  12. November is one of the more difficult months for models in the LR. Wavelengths, gradients, and clashing airmasses cause drastic swings in guidance out in time.
  13. GEFS didn't take long to flip to a warm look in the LR. lol. Model war opened up last night. GEFS buries a trough in the west with down stream ridge in the east d10. EPS is the opposite.
  14. Elmo's winter forecast was released this AM
  15. 18z gefs still holding the look. I haven't picked up wxbell for the year yet so hopefully someone can recap the weeklies tonight.