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Bob Chill

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About Bob Chill

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Rockville, MD
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    Weather & Beer

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  1. Mitch approves. Right side of the boundary this run. Now we have to hope the 18z gefs initialized with tequila.
  2. Technically the change happened leading into thanksgiving so it's been around a while. We scored an event and look to prob fail on the rest. All in all that's a success but since it wasn't below freezing for 24 hours a day for weeks on end with snow piling up every three days it feels like a failure. We'll prob get some sort of jacked up lucky well timed event right in the middle of SE Ridgeville to remind us that good patterns are often wasted and many of our events happen for weird reasons.
  3. Hopefully we're staring at some sort of reload in 10 days or so. Agree about the gradient. It's going to move around and there looks to be abundant cold in canada for the foreseeable future. The one troubling thing is while the ens don't agree on the trough axis down the line, they do all agree that the nao is going to work against us. We're pretty used to that though. Lol
  4. I don't disagree with you or think we're doomed. Just pointing out the trend. My guess is if the d10-15 mean look does happen that it will probably bother us for a couple weeks. As long as canada doesn't go all Agung on us we can get back in the game really quick. As quick as a single strong front. The bothersome part of the look is its a pretty wet setup but lacking in the frozen dept. Would be a bit of a gut punch to have a rainy holiday week. Plenty of time before worrying about that though.
  5. We're def trending into a se ridge right now on the ens. Right or wrong, the trend is hard to ignore. When the gefs first picked up on it I was hoping it was on its own but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore...
  6. Cape, don't look at the 18z gefs. Especially after d10.
  7. I wouldn't be surprised if the big dig into the SW ends up being persistent for a time. Makes sense. They've basically had a static ridge for a few weeks. The rubber band is snapping back to even things out. That bad part for us is with a +nao, the SE ridge will flex more than we want. Ens guidance is definitely moving towards that type of config hanging around vs hit and run like when it first showed up a few days ago. The silver lining is the cold loading pattern in canada is pretty strong so the way out of the ridge/warmth can be abrupt. Much better to have an unfavorable pattern with a quick way out instead of an AK or goa vortex roasting Canada. That's a long way out.
  8. Work keeps getting in the way of looking at weather models...but today that was a good thing. LOL. 18z gfs was about as hideous as it comes in the LR. At least we get some good precip after being cold and dry.
  9. It's a shame that the SS isn't all juiced up. All it does is enhance the northern stream enough to potentially give us some precip. The good thing is just yesterday and the day before the 2 streams looked completely separate on most guidance. Now they are trying to work together. If there's one thing the last event taught us, complicated setups can move around a lot at short leads.
  10. Yea, nothing breaking our way on the clipper right now.
  11. Yea, I'll admit that it isn't looking good across the main globals but too early to call it one way or the other. We usually need wiggle room to the south at this point so previous events favor a track too far north.
  12. Surprised nobody posted the JMA. LOL
  13. Yoda, nam was showing stream interaction and that's why precip was breaking out. It's not a phase but the streams are working together instead of being completely separate. GFS is supportive of something similar. It's really close to a light/mod event and this is something that can shift quick at shorter leads. We'll see where we stand once the timing differences between the models tightens up
  14. RGEM gives us some light snowfall with a band of WAA in front of the clipper. Unfortunately guidance is converging on a track just a little too far north right now. Will need to see some sort of shift south today to feel better about prospects but the last 2-3 runs of everything have looked pretty much the same.
  15. Hypothetically, if Christmas is warm and/or rainy but the rest of the week shows promise then I don't care nearly as much one way or another. That's what the EPS/GEFS look like right now. We haven't seen a 10-15d prog do well yet so I'm not jumping on anything.