Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. OMG! The 18z GFS just nailed the next 12 days and we're screwed! No reason to look at models anymore cuz it's over. Unless you dig into the ensembles for a better picture of possibilities This is one busiest ens runs inside of 10 days we've had all year. Perfectly illustrates that multiple waves and progressive flow is causing havoc on NWP. The 30th through Feb 4th is a very large window with MASSIVE spread in sensible wx outcomes. I predict wild swings on ops every 6 hours for the rest of the week. Ji might need rx meds to get him through the week. Either way he'll require daily group counseling in this thread.
  2. I'm intrigued with how guidance is now squashing the d6-7 wave. Considering how winter has gone start to finish it would be fair to expect the squashed solution to relax as we move through the medium range. If it never happens then it's a sure sign that things are changing. Can't think of a single wave that trended south/squashed/colder from D5 on in. Might be forgetting something but overall all waves in the midwest have ended up being norther/warmer/rainier at game time.
  3. Yea, got squished by the NS but setting up for an amplified storm after. Iterations of all these discrete features are going to cause quite a bit of run over run changes. We need to get one inside of 5 days before we can discuss anything specific. Anything beyond 5 days is prob a phantom. The ideas are plentiful but the most likely to be right idea hasn't shown up yet.
  4. Here's the visual. Muli param 6z control and h5 anom @ hr144. This is an incoming snow event for sure. 0z Icon was amped up. Euro control is more sheared but provides much more wiggle room imo The building PNA ridge on the heels and atl confluence in front is a classic progressive setup for the MA. The slower amped solutions introduce to many potential problems. A quick sheared cold hit is preferred over gunning for a miller A. Not that what I think means a damn thing. I just prefer the easy road at this point.
  5. I'm just looking at it the same way I look at the gfs beyond d7. Gives you a general idea of possibilities without having to slice and dice all the ens panels. EPS agrees that potential activity increases as we move into Feb. Seeing the gfs and euro control advertising similar setups is a step above completely random shotgun chance. We'll see how it goes
  6. @Ji How about the 0z euro contol? 3 events and 1 big one. How about the 6z control? Incoming event just beyond hr144 The way I see it is if we actually go get 3 chances that are mostly driven by a +pna then one is prob going to work out. No guarantees in this dumb game of course. The upcoming chances appear to be better set up than any jacked up chance we've had.
  7. Agree. It's slowly getting interesting again and under 10 days. There like 9 shortwaves and 6 surface lows on gfs. I'll go out on a limb and say it didn't just nail it... but it does show mostly rain so could be right.
  8. I wish it was like 3 days closer. Lol. Ye ole rabbit hole won't get me... yet
  9. Gfs doesn't look much different in the upper levels than the icon @ hr120. Should be a better run. Still an eternity away. Just need the building ridge out west to play nice
  10. @Ji did you look at the 12z euro control? It actually looks just like the gfs with troughs carving, multiple snow events (3), and the best (relatively speaking) entrenched cold towards the end of the run since the first half of Dec. I don't have any strong feelings either way for Feb. I will say that it doesn't look hostile yet. Maybe even a little encouraging...
  11. Half decent +pna driven pattern showing up near the end of Jan into Feb. It's a process and may not yield immediate results but it's no doubt far better than where we've been since mid Dec. A +pna driven pattern in Feb can actually produce without a -ao/nao. CFS/CanSips/euro weeklies all imply a +pna of various magnitudes for the balance of Feb. PSU covered this in great detail this year already but if you look at all the 5"+ storms in Feb with a +ao/nao nearly every one is +pna driven. ETA: considering how this winter has gone start to finish I'm expecting the good looks to deteriorate as we move forward. However, the gfs started showing cold amplification in fantasyland a couple days ago and hasn't wavered since. That + the ens generally agreeing carries some weight. One decent warning level storm and it would erase quite a bit of the nonstop gut punches over the last 6 weeks.
  12. The only real flaw since mid Dec is we can't buy a deep/cold airmass to save our lives. Precip has been plentiful and some of these west tracks could have been decent mixed events. The long range through all of Jan has been too cold. Until that changes our luck is unlikely to change. I'm not punting the rest of winter because that's silly. Winter didn't even begin in 2015 until mid Feb and ended up being a great winter. It all started with that arctic front. Anything can happen and nobody knows how Feb will go. Personally, I'm not getting invested anymore until a cold pattern is either in place or knocking on the door.
  13. Lol- yea, and i was so confident in it that I said it would be at least Wed before we know if we stand a chance. That was the only error in my post because it only took until Monday night to rule it out. I'm not even looking at ens run for more than 2 minutes now. It's not even worth that much time. Maybe mid Feb gets better. I'm ready for spring, fishing, and camping now. I'm done with this year unless something believable gets inside of 5 days.
  14. The only way we pull this off is if the upper and mid level lows stay south and then pass east. Overhead or nearby or anywhere west at our latitude is a complete fail. I'll reserve my excitement for when all ops agree on the south then east track
  15. 0z was much better. Angle of attack on the primary and transfer was much more favorable. Events like this usually drop some snow even with a west track. With the mids torching in front the only way to get real snow is to be west or nw of the low at all times. 0z was trying to do that. 12z isn't even close
  16. Just like any regional forum... the highest concentration of posters live in the densest population areas and vice versa.
  17. Look at the setup in its entirety. It's an awful set of variables to produce here. Especially along the corridor. Models have never once had any consensus of a path to victory. We're getting exicited over long shot runs that are within the envelope of possibilities but the probability in general is really bad.
  18. Gefs makes a strong case for not much east of I81 and lost the cluster from 6z that showed better chances along 95.
  19. I'll say this... if my yard is pounding rain while 20 miles west is pounding fatties next weekend I may go off the rails in epic style
  20. It's looking like a SS shortwave is going to track across the deep south. Basically universal agreement for long leads. That's encouraging. The hard part is the northern stream. We have to have some sore of respectable hp tracking above it. Any type of weakness in the NS and there will be no cold and a west track. Won't really know how that breaks until later this week
  21. It's much more like a mid march storm than Jan. Slow rolling cutoff under a big upper level ridge is a spring pattern.
  22. Eps still has it but increased the spread instead of tightening. I could be looking past an event this weekend though. It's as dicey as they come and my gut says absolutely no way but I'm rooting bigly to bust huge.
  23. Check out some of these analogs... there were some big storms in 83 and 61. 1960 had a big snow that hit Houston to Cleveland. Jan 2000 is almost in there too. Lol
  24. I'm not a pessimist about next weekend... just a realist. Lol 12z eps actually made me a little optimistic. Getting a Miller A or clean coastal would fix a lot of things around here. Very early stages of discussing it and obviously the odds are against us but coastals like this can get picked up at long leads much better than anything northern stream driven. By Wed we'll know if it's legit or a phantom.