Bob Chill

12/2: T .003" zr and 5-6 sleet pellets 12/5: 3.0 12/8: 3.8 1/25: 4.3 (1.8 snow / 2.5 sleet) 1/31: 2.5 Total: 13.6

Models definitely got the crazy gradient idea right. I'm surprised you got less than an inch. I'm prob 30 miles south of you as a crow flies and I'm at 2.5". Still snowing so I may be able to add to that but the end is near. I'm curious what Martinsburg and Chatham end up with.

It's an evil radar loop. I feel for ya. Been through some incredible busts and march 2013 still haunts me to this day. Looks like the coastal bands are finally going to push into RDU. I hope a deform band sets up and parks over your yard.

That has to be one of the more evil dry slots. Upper level low and coastal have remained 2 separate and discrete events. RDU should get into the ULL action shortly but it's a shame things didn't merge and play nice today.

3k and hrrr have done terrible for my yard last 3 runs. I'm over 2" otg and it hasn't stopped snowing since I got up this AM. Had several hours of light/non accum snow between 11am-2pm but it's picked back up the past hour with vis under 1mi.

Interesting event down here. Figured I was done for the day around 1pm when if looked like dry air was shutting down accum rates. Getting a nice burst of steady light snow and vis back under a mile. Not sure how long it will last but might be able to add to the 2".

Yea lol. If wouldn't surprise me at all if the ridge connection happens for like... 3 days... before a trough digs right back in. I see nothing about this pattern that says it's going to morph into extended warmth/shutout.

Practically every single one of our snow events has fine details that no hemispheric index can account for. Basically chaos, luck, and timing factors. Those same factors can produce a snow event when basically all indicies are working against us. That said, odds favor higher probabilities of winter weather vs rain when the indicies are in total sync. I personally don't like amplified +pna/-nao periods as much as others here. It's a good combo for a noreaster but it's also a good combo for non-stop cold/dry frontal passages. I personally prefer a more neutral or slightly negative PNA with blocking help because it opens the door for more widespread precipitation across the eastern half of the conus. You've probably heard me talk about the "big bowl" pattern. That's my favorite for tracking because there are multiple ways to score even if the risk is higher for mixed events or cutters. I like action more than big dog chasing and that's why 2013-14 is one of my favorite winters of all time. I have a bias so keep that in mind when I like what I see. A slightly negative pna with a neg ao/nao combo is a big bowl pattern. We might be heading for one and I personally like that even though it opens the door for bad tracks and rain even with blocking. CPC d8-14 analogs are pretty loaded with winter wx chances Late jan/early feb 2021 has a big noreaster but MD didn't do well. Analogs shouldn't be used to predict that level of detail. The fact that a noreaster existed during the analog period is a big plus. We often say "I'd take my chances with a repeat of a storm like that" which is a good way of looking at it. No 2 storms are alike and even though Boxing Day 2010 was a gut punch, I'd take my chances with another shot at a similar but not identical setup. The list above also includes late Jan 04, mid Feb 2007, early Feb 95, and late Jan 2009. All of those periods produced winter wx in the DMV. IIRC, mid Feb 2010 also had a big coastal that impacted areas to our NE. The above list is yelling that a potential east coast storm is on the horizon

Big blocks (especially the NAO) have a history of this. Some of the dmv's coldest/driest periods have happened during strong neg naos. Carolinas biggest storms have occurred during the same. The flip side is some of the biggest dmv storms have happened during the breakdown of big blocks. Based on history, were prob not even at the halfway point of the current blocking cycle and it will oscillate. The next 3-4 weeks are also the dmv's prime snow climo. I'm pretty optimistic for snow chances over the next month and (imho) chances for a large storm are above to much above normal.

Fwiw, ukie was abysmal with the current storm. I mean absolutely terrible. Euro/ai appear to be doing the best (shocker lol), cmc #2, gfs/ai #3. Imho, based on what I've seen so far this season, you can pretty much hug the euro/ai combo inside of 7 days and use the cmc for confirmation. Gfs seems to only add uncertainty into the mix

Up to 2 inches so far. Looks like most models are going to bust low on the NW periphery. Not sure if I can squeak another inch out but the mesos aren't going to do well with this one in my yard. 15 degrees and the wind is picking up. Roads dont look like roads lol. Snowmobiling isnt a thing down here but I sure wish I had one today lol. Deep winter.

I'm just a few miles from the dam at Smitn Mtn Lake

All guidance has bumped south with qpf (in their own way) but I've already picked up an inch and it's steady light with bursts of mod high ratio snow. This is a tricky storm with 2 distinct areas of synoptics and dry air entrainment in between and around the periphery but so far in my yard guidance is busting too low. I hope that translates eastward into your yards.

Getting kinda lucky I think. Picked up up an inch overnight/early AM and steady light high ratio snow. 16 degrees.

It's been snowing lightly for the last 30 mins and had flurries earlier today around 10-11am. Not much virga. When radar shows 10dbz or higher its making it to the ground.

My yard has been riding the line between 3-6 and 1-2 and I've pretty much been expecting 2-3" tops but being so close to whiter pastures keeps me interested in the idea of a more impactful event. The 12z euro ai/euro/gfs all bumped better qpf northward. Not a ton but all 3 did and it's encouraging. If 18z does the same I'll be more confident in the 3-6 idea. Ratios will be high no matter what. Blacksburg's AFD stated 15-20:1 rations and I believe it. Upper level lows are often fluff bombs and it's plenty cold. I could potentially get close to 6" on .30qpf. RIC could get 4" on .20. Time will tell. Keep expectations low and enjoy the F out of a boom if it happens

It's pretty wild but not totally unbelievable that a super tight gradient sets up somewhere. It's a cutoff low and upper level flow won't be pushing the qpf field out along the periphery like with the majority of storms. I don't think it will be like the nams lol but it will be pretty tight along the northern edge.

Hi res mesos aren't doing well in the short range imo. It's snowing here right now by smith mtn lake right now and fcx shows a decent shield deep into swva. It's still light snow but heavier than flurries. 3k nam and hrrr show nothing like that Mesos are jumping all over the place every 6 hours while the globals like the gfs/euro have been pretty steady with their qpf forecasts last 3 runs. If I lived over by RIC I'd stick with what the globals are showing then pay attention tomorrow in real time as to where the banding sets up.

Light snow falling down here. Not much virga. Radar returns are light but it's making it to the ground. Not expecting much. 1-3 or something like that.

I'd say you're good. 29 or 81 are always taken care of. Main roads in NC get brined like the dmv. Side streets are last in line or ignored completely in rural areas but not main roads

Point Lookout gets a couple inches. I wish the whole shield could bump 75mi NW but the clock has prob run out on those kinds of changes. I'm pretty skeptical of the euro run for my yard even though it looks good on the map.

Euro op just took a sledge hammer and pounded it flat lol. Good times!

Positive tilt doesn't do us any favors but we're in trending phase. Every suite shows the shortwave digging further south. Which is the most important piece because having a low track overhead isn't going to work. The current -AO tank wasn't modeled well so it makes sense that this is trending further south. It also has a gulf connection so moisture can be tapped well west of us. It's very unlikely to morph into a significant event but it has potential for something modest. Like .25-.50 qpf all snow or something like that. Nothing else worth watching rn so it's all we got.

Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage