Bob Chill

Euro op just took a sledge hammer and pounded it flat lol. Good times!

Positive tilt doesn't do us any favors but we're in trending phase. Every suite shows the shortwave digging further south. Which is the most important piece because having a low track overhead isn't going to work. The current -AO tank wasn't modeled well so it makes sense that this is trending further south. It also has a gulf connection so moisture can be tapped well west of us. It's very unlikely to morph into a significant event but it has potential for something modest. Like .25-.50 qpf all snow or something like that. Nothing else worth watching rn so it's all we got.

Ukie's version of next week has a dominant southern shortwave. Nothing is resolved and there is potential for this to become something more interesting than a messy temp problem frontal passage

Over the last 10-15 years of sref observation, the only thing the SREF has been useful for is giving unrealistic hope when there is little. I'm feeling pessimistic down here. Blacksburg is calling for 4-8" and I'm feeling under 3

SREF tossing a bone lol

Shortwave is across guidance and it has a gulf/baja connection but it's not impressive for now. Run of the mill but has trended towards a better pass underneath us. Cmc has it and h5 looks half decent

Under 7 days away

I like that general LW pattern a lot. Precip isn't usually a problem unlike an amplified +pna/-epo pattern with the ridge axis over the west conus. The pna/epo pattern is colder but it difficult to get moisture laden storms. Lots of fronts and high-pressures without big synoptic systems. The pattern in your post has multiple ways for some juice in the system. I've been casually watching the cfs weeklies and they've been looking tasty for the second half of Feb for at least the past week. Similar to what you posted just 2 weeks later:

I wish weather worked that way lol but ma nature on has one way of doing things... like it or not, you get what you get and that's that... lol My climo down here is a mix of the MA and SE. There are several setups that aren't all that uncommon where my yard and the DMV gets all snow in the same similar range. I'll mix or rain a lot more but I'm looking really forward to the first clean decent sized event where we celebrate together. It'll happen. Just a matter of when.

3-6 idea down here still hanging on.... I want this to hit the DMV as much as you folks in the dmv but gotta root for the back yard too

Not sure how much things can shift with the time left but euro AI made a notable jump NW....

Not a model I like to hang my hat on with qpf but I'd be thrilled with the 12k nam's idea. Extrapolated 3k was decent too lol

I never bought it. I entertained it but nothing moved in that direction so it felt like a phantom. Of course I want it to be right but we've played this game a long time. I still see a relatively easy path to a 3-6/4-8 event and wont stop tracking that potential. We'll see how the next couple suites go...

Still barely hanging on to the 3-6" idea down this way. Plenty of time to tick to zero tho

Ai total qpf. ULL is south of Atlanta lol

Euro ai a tick weaker and further south. At odds with the gfs in a pretty big way at this point

Probably the same but higher chance of coastal influence so your boom scenario is better than me and buddy. This is tricky and I don't have much confidence one way or the other. Everything has to go right for a boom so I'll reserve that excitement for the short range

Because the trough is swinging like a pendulum, slp organizes when trough is pretty positive so having slp way out in front does make sense in this case

I'm thinking the gfs is overdoing it and our yards benefit somewhat from the northern stream closing off but not from the coastal CCB. Just a guess. Gun to head, 4-8 top end with 3-6 most likely. Will be high ratio snow on cold ground so we don't need a lot of qpf to have a nice event.

Upper levels are closed off so there will be a sharp gradient. The energy is in a tight ball and not stretched out. If closed low doesn't dig as far south, the entire mass moves north with it. That's the most likely path to a dc hit.

Cmc gets booted east unfortunately

Looks like I gotta get some chains and 50 gallons of diesel fuel for my tractor. Imma be rich. They don't plow much out here hahahaah

It might have worked. Really close but hard to say. CMC will extrapolate it for us shortly