Bob Chill

Metal ruler and this technique works best

19 degrees and first flakes! Extremely light and you have to concentrate to see them but considering how quick I'll probably flip to sleet, every single flake counts lol. NWS forecast for onset of accum precip is 7pm but anything that falls will stick so hopefully I can get some bonus snow

Gefs is building a decent sized camp of near the coast lows. Upper air pattern looks to favor a too far offshore track but this was a pretty good run all things considered. As we just relearned for the millionth time lol.... winter wx tracking is never clear cut and simple even inside of 96 hours. Lead time is double that rn

UTC time takes some getting used to but memorize these #s. Daylight savings moves them forward one hour but during winter it looks like this: 0z = 7pm 6z = 1am 12z = 7am 18z = 1pm

Feb 2015 had a west track with a Bermuda high and was all snow lol. 7" in my yard iirc lol. But other than that freakshow, mix lines slow down or stop for nobody when they are in the forecast area

It's not that binary. Without blocking a nino will be stuffed with cut and rain events. Ninos are generally much less active so storms are far apart. Miss a few good chances and things don't look good in the end. Ninos aren't created equal. East based are not our friends nor are strong ninos. There's a sweet spot with west based/modiki mod ninos but they come along like 3 times in a person's life. Ninos often run warmish and considering how warm has been working against us, I'm not sold that ninos in the future will be as kind as the past . Time will tell there. The highest probability of snow in the MA is most correlated to the AO and that often works in any enso phase. The AO runs in some sort of longer term cycle that is hard to predict but easy to identify. We just came out of a long term +AO cycle. Seems like the cycle flips in 13 year cycles but thats just an oversimplified #. IMHO, last year and this year indicate that the AO cycle has probably flipped. For that reason alone, I'm pretty optimistic about MA snow chances over the balance of the next decade no matter what enso does. There will certainly be duds but overall I think there will be a string of memorable storms heading our way.

Smith Mtn Lake/Penhook

Decent virga on radar down this way keeping me entertained for now lol Forecast start time pushed out to 7-8pm so we'll see how that breaks later. Some areas of TN are overperforming in the snow dept so that's a glimmer of hope but I'm not feeling optimistic about 4" of clean snow anymore. Time will tell. Ice amounts have bumped up in my area as well. I'll keep posting until I lose power and internet lol.

Lol agreed. Global models aren't supposed to be analyzed at the microscopic level. I never thought the gfs and euro were that apart when people were calling it 2 different planets yesterday lol. This is how it always works entering the short range. Global models will never be identical beyond 48 hours. The gfs and euro ticked towards a middle ground pretty much like they always do. A gfs/euro blend at 72 hours is a pretty safe take with the vast majority of our events. Euro is a superior model in the mid range but the gfs does pretty good with the northern stream. A blend with a hedge towards the euro is pretty much what I do with every storm. Tomorrow the mesos will be more important than the globals. I know you know this stuff and we probably agree that some mountains were made out of mole hills the last 24 hours.

My yard will be a good barometer for my northern friends. Time spread for the models with my flip to sleet is as early as 1am or as late as 7am (as it stands right now). Onset right around 6pm or so. Range of snow amounts before the flip is 3-7". If I'm awake lol I'll post my snow totals and flip time. My gut guess is 4-5" of snow, 2-3" of sleet, and .25zr. Anything less than 3" of snow would be a bar buster but 3" or more of sleet would make up for it lol

CFS weeks 4,5,&6 are normal to AN precip and a -AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA combo straight through lol. This -AO cycle looks like it wants to follow the classic 45 day cycle. All this happens during our best snow climo. Feeling very confident more snow events are coming. Not chances... events... heh

This is a pretty good video tutorial. Since we focus mainly on winter wx, you dont have to master everything. At the very least, memorize levels, temps, and wind direction. All a sounding is is a vertical visualization of the atmosphere from the surface to the jet stream. Winter wx focuses mainly on 500mb or below or roughly 18k' down to the surface. Learn to locate the 0C (freezing line). It runs diagonal and memorize altitude of key levels like 500mb (approx 18k'), 700mb (approx 10k'), and 850mb (approx 5k'). Levels are related to pressure are not static and altitude varies but the approx levels are the most common. Once you get that and the 0C line yaou can track temperature above your head and easily spot the trouble areas and also predict ptype.

GEFS is picking up on the Miller A idea.

Euro AI a tick colder with a bit more snow down here in the south

It's obviously long range but analogs and teles are screaming big storm potential. AO on the relax after a big dive and a solid analog list. Weenie rule that the big ones are sniffed out early and a big +WDI

Woah....

For whatever reason... analogs are stacked with Ninos so the pattern "appears" to be ripe for a more traditional Miller A. It's been 10 years so I guess we're due lol

Much more complicated than that. Ratios use temps in the entire column, lift, omega, and all kinds of details. Snow growth and ratios are affected by many factors other than surface temps

Once you accept it for what it is, it's a blast... literally... lol I loved 2007. It was wild. Never saw sleet pile up like that before and once I accepted the forecast snow was off the table I embraced and enjoyed it. This storm will be an absolute glacier Tuesday morning down here no matter what happens. If you squint, sleet looks just like snow on the ground too hahaha

Other than the last 15 consecutive storms, I can't remember a time when going with the coldest and snowiest model was a mistake. Agree 100% with euro/3k blend @ 12z tomorrow. If the 3k is quicker to jack the mid-levels go with that. If they are the same it's safe to assume the solution is correct. I wish I could trust the gfs with fine details at close range but someone will have to remind me of the last time that worked out lol

3k is a good model for tracking mid levels and ptypes but it's prob too early to heavyweight it. Storm is still in formation stage. 12z run tomorrow is a biggie. It could be nailing it today but the globals (imo) are still the most important data points.

@Buddy1987and other swva peeps. Trend overnight has been modest improvements in the mid levels and more snowfall pushing to even just south of the NC line. Best guess for the the area inside of I81, Rt29, Rt460 and Rt40 is 4-8" of snowfall, 2-3" of sleet, and .25-.50zr. 460 area will do the best and my area around rt40 has more bust potential. I'd like to say I'm safe for 3" of snow with a best case 6" but sleet lines almost always mean business moving north. Luckily the trend has been towards a more cohesive precip field when the getting is good. I liked the 0z&6z euro for our yards. Modest improvements where it counts the most. Global models are getting close to their final consensus solution and changes will prob be small going forwards.

We talked about this at the get together in Rockville. Haven't had a drink since 2017. I thought I would miss it because beers and bourbon were central to my social life and end day of stress relief. Nope, don't miss it at all. I'm the same person without the extra weight, unproductive time, and more money in my wallet lol. Probably the best decision of my 40s. I enjoy going out to bars or wherever with friends just as much and laugh DD'ing on the way home. NA beers have come a long way and actually taste really good too! Haha

Man isn't that the truth. This is pretty much a long track and other than Jan 2016, long tracks have a special way of reminding all of us how hard it is to nail things beyond 48-72 hours. Nearly all bigger storms have complicated synoptics and stream interaction. Models in agreement at 96+ hours doesn't mean nearly as much as it looks like at the time it happens. I never marry a solution or make definitive calls beyond 2-3 days out anymore. Learned that lesson way too many times over the years lol

Yea, I know I'm cooked for the bulk of the precip. If I can get .5qpf as snow I'd be thrilled. Once I flip there is no coming back either. What I really don't want is big ice. It's rural out here and multiple lines down could take far more than a day to get back online. We have plenty of fuel, generator, and propane heater so it won't be brutal but it could be quite disruptive if a half inch of ice acretes. The euro is the only model with big ice and I think a good portion of that is an error. This has the hallmarks of a big sleet storm here. NC piedmont is a different story... Our property has a ton of pines. Some real beauties that have been around far longer than me. I'd hate to see those get wrecked. Would be a little depressing. Praying for a sandstorm lol