Bob Chill

Agree 100% on that. We had some of this stuff happen in feb/Mar 2015. After the Vday mini blizzard, the tpv didn't leave our proximity for weeks. Couple progressive waves similar to this one got pac man'd to hell. One psu and highstakes will remember well. The cold dry air tore an arc out of the nw side so on paper it had the same vibe. That was a weird underperformer too. It was too cold and dry. Radar didn't reflect reality much. Heavies were light. Snow quality sucked at times. Ground up flakes and sand. I worry a little about that tomorrow. Wouldn't come as a shock to get sub 10:1 on whatever qpf falls. 850/700 frontogen panel are pretty meager until you get towards RIC

Lol. There's not much difference there. Just don't talk dmv fast lol. Wife and I love it here. Everything is amazing. Nice helpful people, no bs, fair cost for any service, low cost of living, and the scenery is off the chain. I traded 5" of climo so to do it and I'd prob trade a few more if I had to lol.

It's really not a Miller B. If anything its a pure coastal Miller A. It's just getting hammered by cold/dry/un-energetic air on the NW side

Icon is a modest but visible step towards a more amplified storm. Hard to hate it no matter what the yard panels look like

Enough guidance gets the back edge of coastal enhancement over me that I 100% want a more amplified and developed system. It can only help me. I've been thinking 3-6 for like a week. No reason to change my mind but I do believe my chances (as they stand right now) favor the higher end of that and it may come a little easier than I first thought. Pretty cautious though. This entire evolution has been tough to figure out since d1 too Eta: my bust bar is sub 3". That would be pretty lame for an 8-10 hour event lol

Probably something that doesn't taste like hotdogs

ICON is unusually important for trends. You'd think consensus would narrow sharply over the next 2 suites

During March, as long as Canada isn't torching, all we need for snow is a +pna. It's not easy snow without other stuff but simple continental cold and a decent trough axis can get it done. Down my way I need things pretty anomalous to get the column right but the nova/md/de zone can get it done without anything crazy. March is cutoff season too so a cutoff bowls into an OK antecedent airmass works too. I don't see any classic big storm stuff but imo, from what I'm seeing, odds def favor another accum snow event (or more) versus flipping the switch and swatting mosquitoes

Kuchera is going big on ratios. 10-1 is 2-4 and in line with most other guidance. I'd say qpf is very believable. Not sure about 15:1 but if high ratios are going to happen, column is as good as it gets. Flakes gotta be big and fluffy. Ive seen totals end up low with cold storms before when snow growth is weak and flake quality is closer to sand than pillows. Time will tell

Rumor has it that Jebman is already there walking all 800 miles on foot with his extreme duty shovel and a Walkman cassette player. Listening to ELO probably

We could start another thread but we may end up losing snow that already fell earlier this year

Welcome and yes, models bust weenies everywhere. They do no discriminate. Places further north bust different because they are often all snow no matter what when cold air is entrenched so it becomes a QPF game only which is still filled with pkenty of uncertainty and frustration. Mixed events or areas where mixed events are typical climo, it adds another very large and complicated bust factor. Very very large. Some around here like big busts though.

It's a 100% optional hobby.... yea right, my eyes are extra brown lol Honestly, I don't even see a "warmup" of sig consequence. Meaning days of +5-10 strung along are something i see. My gut guess is it will take time to scour the incoming airmass even after the mids warm up. Then a messy period followed by a big storm out west that carves a transient -PNA. We'll be warm last week of feb but staring down a flip to a more typical pattern that can snow on us. Progressive but interesting. That's my call. Let's see what happens

Some interesting analogs showing up in the LR. March 2008 and 1994 storms along with Feb 1997. March 08 was of course an OH/western PA deal but it was a big storm. Current analog sets seem to favor a big storm happening in the east half of the country ptype is a different discussion lol but some MA snows are in the mix. Are we sure winter is done and it's time to grade and watch baseball?

We'll be tracking a window within a week imho. From what I see, another period of +pna/-epo is possible first 10 days of March and any "warmup" will be under a week. Last blocking collapse evolved into a -epo/+pna so there is precedence. Not the best snow pattern but it's March and things can be powderkeggy

Similar adjustment on the gfs. May not make a difference this run but these are the things all of us want to see

Nam and Icon both shifted pretty early in the runs. Noticeable improvement with amplification thru the deep south/TN Valley. This resulted in a modest shift in track but more importantly, the gulf tap is better. More juice. That's the easy snow we all need for a decent storm. I'm pretty much out on coastal enhancement but there's a nice path to victory still. If gfs and euro have similar bumps its a great sign as we're in the short range. Those types are adjustments can happen into game time.

It all comes down to the WAA piece for us. I mean sure, coastal enhancement level ups the storm but I'm already prob too far away. We simply want as much juice as possible and the east way to get it is modest amplification while tapping the gulf.

Both the nam and icon hang the tpv lobe back a little opening the door for more amplification before the TN valley. One thing that can help anyone/everyone is the shortwave to accumulate as much gulf juice as possible before approach. That + a modest adjustment in track can make up some lost ground

I did express my concerns in the mid range. Even at the height of the runs I was pretty modest. I mentioned several times that a big cohesive storm had some problems but it was overridden with euro snow maps and intense optimism lol

No problems posting them or any map. They should all be posted because even fantasy runs are plenty useful in the thought algorithm. Using a 120+ hour map to make your final call with emotions attached and not accepting anything less? That's masochism man!

It's a bust overall as it stands now so I'm not saying I expected a complete collapse. Burns me too but I'm used to losing 3-6" storms. Comparing this to Mar 2001? Omg wtf. A memorable bust? Idk man. The only way it can feel that way is if you were sure it was going to be big and locked in. Was it ever really close to that lol?

There's a bias in play here. Gfs/gefs was getting ripped when it was weak and disorganized while the euro was going big. It was assumed to be wrong and would catch on to the euro. I looked at if different. To me it was a consistent warning sign that a cohesive storm had some problems. More that one. It seems like a model collapse when consensus showed the northern piece being a thorn instead of a boom. But there were plenty of warning signs not to jump on the boom bandwagon and I never did. Never doubted an OK storm, but those big totals never seemed real to me. I'll say this, this place would be a lot more fun if people would stop marrying mid range high end fantasy stuff. Anything less is unacceptable but less is a near certainty.... time and time again over and over lol. The majority of our storms are looked at with turd colored glasses come gametime because of this. Even when it produces what's expected in the short range.

As long as you feel like posting, probably

CFS is predicting lions