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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Not a model I like to hang my hat on with qpf but I'd be thrilled with the 12k nam's idea. Extrapolated 3k was decent too lol
  2. Bob Chill
    I never bought it. I entertained it but nothing moved in that direction so it felt like a phantom. Of course I want it to be right but we've played this game a long time. I still see a relatively easy path to a 3-6/4-8 event and wont stop tracking that potential. We'll see how the next couple suites go...
  3. Bob Chill
    Still barely hanging on to the 3-6" idea down this way. Plenty of time to tick to zero tho
  4. Bob Chill
    Ai total qpf. ULL is south of Atlanta lol
  5. Bob Chill
    Euro ai a tick weaker and further south. At odds with the gfs in a pretty big way at this point
  6. Bob Chill
    Probably the same but higher chance of coastal influence so your boom scenario is better than me and buddy. This is tricky and I don't have much confidence one way or the other. Everything has to go right for a boom so I'll reserve that excitement for the short range
  7. Bob Chill
    Because the trough is swinging like a pendulum, slp organizes when trough is pretty positive so having slp way out in front does make sense in this case
  8. Bob Chill
    I'm thinking the gfs is overdoing it and our yards benefit somewhat from the northern stream closing off but not from the coastal CCB. Just a guess. Gun to head, 4-8 top end with 3-6 most likely. Will be high ratio snow on cold ground so we don't need a lot of qpf to have a nice event.
  9. Bob Chill
    Upper levels are closed off so there will be a sharp gradient. The energy is in a tight ball and not stretched out. If closed low doesn't dig as far south, the entire mass moves north with it. That's the most likely path to a dc hit.
  10. Bob Chill
    Cmc gets booted east unfortunately
  11. Bob Chill
    Looks like I gotta get some chains and 50 gallons of diesel fuel for my tractor. Imma be rich. They don't plow much out here hahahaah
  12. Bob Chill
    It might have worked. Really close but hard to say. CMC will extrapolate it for us shortly
  13. Bob Chill
    Nothing about that run looked like it was going to work. Progressive as F lol
  14. Bob Chill
    Back yard post for my southern neighbors... and it's just getting started lol
  15. Bob Chill
    Would probably get to neutral/neg in time for something similar to the gfs
  16. Bob Chill
    Gfs did great job during JFM 2014&15. the mid range with fast moving progressive northern stream waves. Euro did well inside of 72 hours but the gfs was the one you wanted on your side in the mid range. That said, the gfs and euro haven't been that far apart with the current threat. Its just one of those setups where a little means a lot on the ground.
  17. Bob Chill
    They don't plow much out here in the sticks lol
  18. Bob Chill
    That's a beaut. Literally went half way to the gfs in one run. The cips analog list is looking more realistic now heh
  19. Bob Chill
    Extremely. Unlike the last storm, this one basically blows up right at our latitude. Last one was mature and loaded with moisture well before the approach. This storm is going to be explosive wherever it rapidly deepens. That's a lock. Where that happens depends entirely on how the upper levels transpire
  20. Bob Chill
    I'll have to see the euros h5 vort panels to compare but right now the differences between the euro and gfs are pretty small. Gfs is just a little quicker to close off and go negative. Like what I said recently with the euro trough pointing at 1 o'clock and the gfs at high noon. If the euro moves that direction at 0z it gets real interesting
  21. Bob Chill
    AIFS isn't really that far off of the gfs @ h5 and it definitely improved in the upper levels. Not what we want but a decisive trend in the right direction.
  22. Bob Chill
    Gefs mean qpf last 8 runs...
  23. Bob Chill
    Spread tightened up quite a bit... in a really good way too....
  24. Bob Chill
    Rgem @ 84 Gfs @ 84 Nearly identical. Gfs isn't on a total island at least....
  25. Bob Chill
    Of course I want the last 2 runs verbatim lol but it seems so unlikely.... Our land is on the east side of smith mtn at the base and our temporary home is at the base on the west side. I've wondered since we moved here what a true noreaster with CCB would look like on both sides. Smith is the first big rise in the western piedmont. About 1,200 vertical. That has to have some orograpic influence with strong E/NE flow. Sure likes to wring out drizzle during April easterlies lol
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