Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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This storm is a great reminder that it's very hard for models to nail intricate energy transfers. The waa piece is easy. The upper level and surface low progression is complicated. Sometimes it cuts the other way where models at short range lose (or move) the extra lift/precip idea. Appears this one is maxing out. Good luck indeed
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Kuchera ftmfw
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Look f'n solid for our yards. Holds firm with ull trailing energy. Just not as juicy as the nam. Maybe 18z... lol
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Parrs Ridge might be next before leesburg. Elevation makes a big difference when the only dry part of the column is 925mb and below
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Damn dude. Earlier than i thought. I'm prob 3 hours away from onset. Keep up with obs. You're in the hot seat now
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If you dont want to pay then the cod site is by far the best free radar. Has some really neat features built in like correlation coefficient, tilts, vils, cloud tops, etc
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You should be good by 5:30. Could easily be delays but my guess is runways will easily be plowed and open by late afternoom. Deicing and arrival delays could mess with the schedule but outright cancellations are unlikely...unless a deathband sets up...
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Enjoy your 6"+ of cold powder
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One thing i want to at least point out is the big totals on the mesos or icon require upper level energy to perform as it moves through. I've seen many short term disappointments with that not materializing in time to match up with the progs. Not saying i think that's going to happen but it's something nobody should overlook.
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Yea, you're fringed on models. Enjoy your 6"+ of cold powder though
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Fv3 has been really steady as locked in the short range. Much less jumpy than its older brother
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Cmc looks more like the gfs than the nams/icon
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Gfs should have this one nailed by 6z tomorrow
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Yea, i already knew it a week ago but didnt want to sound toooo selfish
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Just hug the icon and nams until something better comes along. We're in chips fall mode anyway. Jackpot tbd means not known until the event is over. These progressions are twisty turney. No model will nail exact placement of best banding/dynamics.
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Virga streaming in. If you use the cod nexrad site, once the hole over klwx fills in it means onset it imminent for the burbs. Western folks will already be reporting by then. There's going to be hours and hours of virga through late afternoon
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Now we're talkin
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I'm too busy huggin the icon to worry about the gfs
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Icon goes nuts with the weenie ccb band. Lol. Big hit incoming
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I'm always very skeptical of nam qpf output. Temps are usually pretty good but i've seen more than my share of qpf busts. That said, i'm hugging the 12k until it implodes
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I fell asleep before the 0z euro and woke up to a model frenzy. I would have been depressed if i saw the 0z euro. Lol
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3k mostly agrees with its mentally unstable brother
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Damn. Even .75 is a crushing. Good 6z and 12z so far
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Even if you us the standard short range nam reality adjustment it's still .60
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Thanks coastal but i think you meant to say melts on contact. Lol
