Bob Chill

Man, I'm tryin hard to find encouraging data... 18z gefs spread looks really good here. Majority have the tpv in an ok spot and also a pna or epo ridge out west. There's some very cold solutions in this mix

This is pretty sweet. Split flow, 50/50, confluence, blocking, and a little ridging in the deep south to send a massive slug of overrunning into arctic CAD. @Ji a blend of PD2 and Feb 5 09 setup

Yea, check out the iceland ridge and what it does to the tpv. Then check the 18z gefs and it shows the same thing. 12z gefs also had the iceland ridge. Imho- that's the key feature to watch. Pop a nasty ridge near iceland and force the tpv into Quebec. If it doesn't snow at least the ponds will freeze and I can skate

Disappointing run. Good thing we get brand new looks every 6-12 hours.

Yea, I don't see anything that leads me to believe a good winter pattern is on the way within the next 2 weeks and who knows what the "improved pattern" will look like whenever it gets here. 12z eps is pretty bad. One of the worst runs yet lately. Time to put all our chips on the GEFS.

Absolutely and all I was pointing out was the possibility of nasogood stuff continuing. However, when we're looking/waiting for a pattern shift it does typically start showing up on long range ops and that helps confirm that the ens may be more right than wrong. The thing that sucks right now is we have to wade through 10-14 days of a shutout pattern and a pretty bad one at that. I'd love to talk about the more reliable mid range but that's not in the cards so we're stuck picking apart uber long range ops and ensembles for a while. We do it pretty much every year and hopefully this is the only/last time. I can deal with the rest of Dec sucking no problem. Start bleeding into mid Jan and it's going to get testy an restless up in here.

It's a logical progression and the CFS weeklies & monthlies agree that Jan will be some version of that. Euro weeklies have a similar idea at times but also show that we may be fighting the western trough off and on through the end of Jan. My gut instinct is telling me that it will take longer to get out of the western trough regime and could frustrate us through the end of the year into early Jan. Inside of the GEFS mean is an equal spread of winter returning and frustrating western trough. Total coin flip here:

GEFS looks fine. We just don't know exactly how things will evolve. There are quick ways back to something serviceable and then there's the long drawn out ways... GFS op showed one of the long drawn out ones... One thing the 12z gefs went nuts with is the Iceland ridge. Must be strong consensus for that considering the anomalies showing up way out in time. We'll probably end up fighting the Pac longer than we want with troughs digging but that won't last forever. Park the TPV over or SE of hudson and we can get back to tracking.

12z gfs op is an unmitigated disaster in the LR. It's like 5 steps away from a good pattern at the end. It's just an op and way outside useful range but I don't like seeing runs that end like that. lol

Yea, and I have it tilted the wrong way. 3 closest NWS obs were higher.

Yea, amplitude matters. The MJO is far from a 1:1 correlation with our winter wx but the correlation def goes up with amplitude. That plot above is weak sauce. And I totally agree with your second point. All 3 global ens show some sort of decent front clearing between xmas and new years. Would make sense and could be the beginning of the process that carves the upper levels into something more workable. It's not going to be quick and easy so if we get a good front followed by another mild shot before next front it would be pretty normal and the more likely way to return to winter versus the arctic hounds blasting through and hanging out for weeks. That said, it's going to be really boring around here for the next 7-10 days me thinks.

I couldn't talk either of my older kids into community college for the first 2 years. I tried pretty hard too. Now that they both graduated they both wish they went to CC first. The good thing is neither is saddled with much student loan debt. They both have some but very manageable. That's actually part of my plan as I made them take some loans to have some skin in the game. It's def working as they realize that they need to get to work and start paying the loans back. It wasn't as hard putting kids through college as I first thought but it wasn't easy either... that's for sure. I'm more prepared for the next round and I have 4 years before having to deal with it.

I know and highstakes' post was poking fun at the "mythical fringe" that rarely happens. Better snow climo is just a byproduct of where we want to live. We want big rolling views, large property, modest home. Downsize and simplify while getting the F out of the rat race. Our eventual final destination may end up much further north like VT or NH. That's too far away to think much about though.

Gefs general idea is a decent invasion of arctic air. The spread shows all outcomes with the cold centered westerer and easterer.

It's never a lock of course but the next 10 days don't look good and there's universal agreement. The eps first picked up on the pac flood and never wavered and now everything agrees so there's well above normal confidence imho. The way out is much muddier and nothing is a lock there at all. At least we're seeing signs of improvement now.

Lol. Cashing top end with all the marginal mixy storms will more than make up for it. I prefer active and # of events over jacking the rare big ones. I'll fit in just fine in your slice of the region.

Some decent trends in the long range. Epo ridge gaining traction and now both the eps and gefs are trending towards lower heights in the east and 50/50 region. If the northern stream starts trying to dig down into eastern canada it could potentially offset the terrible pacific. There are hints of colder weather sliding through while the san diego troughs keep digging. This is a pretty good mean h5 panel. If it's right our chances for winter wx are avg or even above avg. If we can see the way out and it holds in time it will make the next 10-15 days much more bearable.

Yea, feels great. Need to get the grads off my payroll asap. The grad from the spring isn't trying hard enough and the one today immediately starts full time as a director for a cheer/acrobat facility. She got her degree in Kinesiology so it all makes sense. Once I get my kids off the payroll I can semi retire. Counting the days man... some people dread empty nest and others can't wait for the freedom. I'll kick them all out if they take too long doing it themsevles.

Yea, 40 miles from my house and 50% more snowfall. I avg around 22" and Parrs area in general is 36+ avg

Feeling pretty good. Second kid graduated from UMD tonight. Two down and 2 to go. Once the second set is in college it's time to sell the house in Rockville and move to Parrs ridge (not joking). Can't wait to post storm obs. Lol

Road spray from the brine is salting the air and dropping the freezing point into the upper 20s.

Vegas is setting the over/under on Christmas @ 60. Place your bets.

12/4 T 12/11 0.2" 12/16 1.1” Total: 1.3”

I'm not sure there's a path to frozen even if it does climb the coast. Without some sort of northern stream interaction the mid levels are scorching all the way to Canada.

@psuhoffman @C.A.P.E. CFS weeklies have consistently improved for Jan. It's an interesting pattern and it fits what we're seeing on the ens late in their runs. The EPO ridge axis isn't optimal as it's a bit too far west but the Atl looks to offset some of that. Very gradient like pattern showing up and not that far away. Precip anomaly plots imply normal to above normal QPF from weeks 3-6 Weeks 3-4 look workable and the weekly trend is colder as you go out in time so weeks 5-6 are better than these: