Bob Chill

I believe models are converging on an unusual epac ridge axis that puts western canada into the deep freeze as the ridge axis runs along the coast. It's a weird pattern in general but hey, get canada into the deep freeze without a SE ridge and we'll get some cold. Get enough cold and it should accidentally snow

EPS is looking much better down the line (not the same as looking good. Lol). Especially in the Atl. Also moves the tpv out of AK fairly quickly and is building an -epo ridge. Mid level temps are looking cold by d15 so some of the arctic air in AK is getting displaced into the mid latitudes. All in all I'll take the 12z eps run as a Christmas present.

Doesn't work out on the run but I'm not mad at the CMC's version of NYE

It's not much and I won't share any thoughts about what I think about early Jan but... EPS shows there's more than a 1% chance at an event around NYE

I would love for JAX to get hit like that. It would be national news and something that millions of residents would never forget.

Yea, damned if you do and don't with the deal around the 30th. The only thing that can bring cold enough air into the mix is NS phasing and NS phasing almost guarantees a cutter. Euro cuts off the shortwave tracks the shortwave under us but with streams completely separated there is no cold to work with at all.

Everything is turning into a bit of a mess from a predictability standpoint. I've conceded that we literally have no idea what may or may not pop up in the next 2 weeks and also that the general hemispheric pattern will remain quite unfavorable for decent event. Once we start getting some fronts rolling through with continental air and progressive flow then chaos can take over and accidentally snow on us. Trying to predict that over a week in advance is a waste of time. No way to spin or sugarcoat where things appear to be heading. There is no longer any hint of a good hemispheric pattern setting up anytime in the near future. Crumbs, scraps, and accidents appears to be all we're going to have to work with.

Euro wasn't far from a much better outcome. A tighter spacing/flatter ridge in front and more confluence from the atlantic and storm track suddenly goes from cutter to coastal. In between solution would be CAD then flip. This is a decent panel right here Flatten the top of the full latitude ridge and we snow

12z gefs is picking up on something around NYE and the CMC op hits us good The GEFS members that work out are similar to the CMC progression with a wave or waves getting suppressed by transient 50/50 atl blocking. IMO- it's a huge longshot but there are enough hints in that time frame to keep it interesting.

@frd Wes did a great scatter plot with AO and 4" or greater snowstorms. The plot clearly showed the importance of a -AO and 4"+ storms for DCA as the correlation was somewhere around 70%. Might be higher... I'm not digging too deep into anything right now as we're still over a week away from even being in the longshot game. Jan can be a friendly month with snowfall and hostile teleconnections. Just need some luck (as always).

Some interesting looks. I'm actually a little confused why snowfall is sparse on both the eps and gefs. Hopefully that picks up soon. I am really liking the d15 height spread. Nearly every one is wintry and has potential. A lot of broad troughs in the mix. Get that going and our odds of snow are well above normal. About half the members have a closed ull of the coast of Socal. Jan 87 redux.

Took a closer look at the 18z gefs. I suppose there's a longshot chance around NYE. Something to watch as we pass time wearing sunscreen.

Eps keeps trending colder d10-15 but looks pretty dry with limited snow chances. Very weak signal around the 4th-6th. Gefs is similar with things turning dry after we transition to cold around NYE. 18z gefs had a bit more of a signal for potential between the 4th-6th. Right now guidance agrees on the big picture in early Jan and also agrees that snow chances are pretty meager and don't expect much before late in the first week of Jan. Of course this is all subject to change every 12 hours or so

Yea, sure seems to be moving in that direction. Quite a bit of spread on how things evolve in early Jan. So much so that I have no idea where this is all going other than some mid winter cold is prob on the way. How long it lasts and whether or not frozen precip is involved won't be known for 7-10 days. With the way this year has gone I'm expecting some brand new ways to worry are in our future. Lol. Cold/dry is on the list. Lol

9 times out of 10, flipping out of a sh!t pattern and into a colder pattern doesn't include snowfall. Feb 2015 was an exception. We typically need the cold pattern to establish itself for a week or so before chances start popping up. Going off history in these parts based on what I'm seeing now... our first real chance prob won't happpen until after 1/5. Just a total guess but it's how we roll.

One important step that all guidance is showing is splitting unmitigated pac flow sometime between the 26th-28th. I would like to think that part is close to locked in and won't get kicked down the road. That's a very important inflection point.

The gfs op and gefs/eps are all signaling a return to a very amplified but still progressive flow. Wild swings on ops run over run will continue for days. Overall guidance (although turning cold) doesn't look promising for snowfall yet. Gotta crawl walk and run here. Crawl phase appears to end sometime around the 30th. Beyond that? Good luck guessing.

There were signs of things improving in Jan but the west coast trough kept getting pushed out in time. What's unusual is the way we get out of the warmish pattern. It's mostly atlantic driven. We appear to be getting lucky with the ridge in canada creating split flow. We're seeing quite a bit of agreement on that now.

This looks freekin good. I'm good with every member height plot on this panel and it's 15 days out in time. Not a bad one in the bunch. The ones that are warm have winter on the heels. Can't predict snow this far out in time but it def looks like we're getting some cold shots in early Jan.

Here's the mslp anomaly for the last 30 days or so. Confirms my thoughts about a persistent low pressure near the maritimes. I'm good with that continuing through the end of March

There's a parade of closed ULLs tracking through the southwest on all ops right now. Get the atlantic right and keep the parade going and one of them is going to hit us flush. One of the most persistent LW features since mid Nov has been 50/50s. I haven't seen the atlantic look this good since Jan 2011. There's nothing more fun than a classic coastal that hits everyone relatively equally. I liked seeing the Jan 87 analogs showing up on cpc. The only thing more fun than a flush hit coastal is a second one shortly after...

I do like seeing guidance lock in to a return to more favorable conditions before the end of the year. Important step #1 is to not have the 850 0c line north of the great lakes. That should be fixed before 2020. But like with all large pattern flips... they generally don't hit the ground running so patience required (as always....)

Very nice shift on the EPS towards a colder regime beginning just after NYE with a much more defined eastern conus trough in place by Jan 2nd. One of the larger run over run jumps (in the good direction) I've seen recently. ETA: h5 pattern looks good but oddly there isn't much going on in the snowfall dept.

I think all guidance looks the same now in general (including the CMC/GEPS). Ridge in the EPac splits flow and the blocking ridge in Canada forces the northern stream underneath as the Atlantic carves out a 50/50. All models are showing a similar progression with just minor differences in speed/placement of features. The most important thing to root for is the altantic carving out confluence as soon as possible. We'll be in the sweet climo window where normal temps are good enough by the time things improve.

Yea, now we have the big 3 globals looking the same at d10 and all ens support the idea of how/when things turn for the better. The GFS/CMC/Euro have a storm approaching from the SW d8. The Atl can make this happen with well placed confluence. Even with a west track we can do our CAD thing.