Bob Chill

There are 2 things the EPS is trending towards that can salvage a portion of Jan. 1) is the progression of reducing the nasty -PNA/Aleutian ridge. That has been speeding up with the GEPS/EPS and the GEFS is being stubborn. 2) is the scand ridge pushing into Greenland. That's compressing heights to our NE in the Atl and creating confluence and lower heights in our area. This is very important. If the EPS is totally wrong about the scand ridge then we're still facing some SER issues and we'll need the trough axis (assuming there even is one) in a perfect location. Here's the run over run h5 comparison. Looking better in the right places. Still a hurry up and wait situation though. lol

EPS could be too fast or it could be seeing things more clearly. We had a couple days of good/bad run over run recently but the last 3 runs have been pretty promising honestly. And the trend has been for the better. I do know this is by FAR the busiest D10-15 meteogram for my yard all winter. There's not even a close second because much of the d10-15 has been void of anything good irt snowfall all winter. I'll just hug this for now:

I've felt like 1" is a big win since this first showed up. I'll stick with that but very encouraging 12&18z runs today.

Best d10-15 EPS run of winter by a large margin. Implies that if things break right there is good storm potential and not just messy nickles and dimes.

This has to be the top end run that set expectations too high that results in people getting 1-2" and being pissed off. lol. It's engraved in the script.

Sounding in my yard during the height is money. 32 degress but ripping fatties. Great omegas on this sounding

3k goes right along with its crazy brother. JUICY

NAM is like the smallest comma head I've ever seen.

EPS has been picking up a window in the 17th-20th range for a few days. 12z is the best run yet. You can't expect any type of majority or consensus d10+. There's enough decent storms under the hood this run and not just nickle/dimes to be encouraged for 12 hours.

Sounds like you think the GEFS is right then and that's fine. But there is no doubt a model war going on with the consensus (GEPS/EPS) leaning towards knocking down the SE ridge and getting rid of the western trough inside of 2 weeks. There is reason to doubt a "treadmill" of SER/-PNA for weeks on end.

With my sunglasses because that is sun angle preseason Before you check out for 4 weeks. Check out the EPS d10-15. Very nice shift with the longwave pattern and a nice uptick in legit storms down the line. Very good run and speeds up getting rid of the SE ridge/western trough.

GEFS remains an outlier down the line. I figured the 12z GEPS would shift towards the GEFS but the spread between the ens widened. This goes along with my thoughts as to where I think we're going this month. Maybe the GEPS/EPS are too fast in shuffling things around but this is encouraging. Not a great pattern but def more wintry than the next 10 days.

Starting to see a pretty tight cluster of solutions across all guidance. Euro/gfs are basically lock step now... Seems like a best case scenario is showing up under 48 hours...

Yea, it's intriguing being a compact dynamic ball of precip. All sim radars are showing heavies. Many variables irt accum snow that won't really be known until game time but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't looking forward to watching radar tomorrow.

We just want them to look the same so both. Right now meso's and globals all point to a similar outcome. Now the wobbles will keep us on our toes.

Still a half decent sounding at onset of the heavier QPF along and west of I95. Consistent with the potential for rippage even if brief. ETA: here's the sim radar panel that coincides with the sounding. Legit rippage going on in places (like the most important place...my yard)

Only way my yard can eclipse an inch is if it's hot and heavy. like .2-.3 in 2-3 hours. There seems to be a legit chance for that to happen so maybe it's not crazy to expect 1" in the closer burbs.

ICON made a notable move in the juicy direction.

I use the term as a basic adjective and not inside of a technical box. Any trough that touches the arctic circle and gulf of mexico is a full latitude trough in my brain.

I was set up!

It was really popular in the 80s and lots of people got shot over it. Oh wait... I thought you said freebase. Scatch that.

Here's the sounding to go along with the sim radar... lol. Straight ripping fatties

These sim radars crack me up. It's like a thunderstorm. So compact... This is prob spot on. HoCo MoCo deathband is real.

At least it's on its own now. EPS/GEPS combo looks quite a bit different and have been slowly improving each run. I'll toss the gefs until one of the others start to agree

Every time I watch Wilson I wonder if he's part cyborg or AI or something. Level of precision at times is remarkable. Not just throwing the ball either.