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About nj2va

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  • Location:
    Alexandria, VA / McHenry, MD

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  1. I’m happy to see this juice up like our recent systems of late. Nino flexing and I think a good sign of what’s to come this winter in our peak climo.
  2. Any snow is good snow, even if its snow TV in the metros. It'll make the Christmas decorations even more festive.
  3. Leesburg 04 is a miserable tool. so happy he left the board.
  4. Adding LWX's discussion too. Another dent in the rainfall deficit. Therefore, widespread rain is expected across the area Sunday into Sunday evening and it will be breezy. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will most likely accompany the frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening. Given the strong winds aloft, this has the potential to mix down gusty to perhaps even locally damaging wind gusts. One mitigating factor will be the lack of instability that is progged in the models. It will be difficult to get instability rooted within the boundary layer. Therefore, certainty for damaging wind gusts is low at this time. A soaking rain is expected given the dynamics and moisture associated with this system. Rainfall amounts around 1-3" are most likely. The recently dry conditions may minimize the flood threat, but localized flooding cannot be ruled out given the higher rainfall amounts and the fact that rainfall rates may be heavy at times with the frontal passage. Colder air will move in behind the front, first later Sunday evening in the Allegheny Highlands and then Sunday night from northwest to southeast across the rest of the area. With the upper-level trough axis lagging behind the frontal passage by a few hours or so, this suggests that there will be some anafrontal characteristics to the boundary. Therefore, moderate precipitation is expected for a few hours or so behind the cold front before drier air eventually works its way in overnight. There will be enough cold air for rain to change to snow in some areas. As of now, it appears that the best chance for accumulation will be along the ridges of the Blue Ridge, Potomac Highlands, and Allegheny Highlands where cold air will move in sooner. For locations along and west of the Allegheny Front, an upslope component to the low-level flow will cause additional snow showers to last longer behind the cold front, enhancing potential for accumulating snow. Winter weather headlines may be needed for the mountains. For the valleys, any chance for accumulating snow is low, but this will continue to be monitored.
  5. Started a thread here to add discussion for the event. Getting us ready for our January HECS.
  6. Thread for the Sunday - Monday rain/snow/wind event.
  7. Could beat my total all of last winter
  8. EJ and Bristow are active in the LR thread. Definitely winter cancel mode.
  9. Going straight to the hard stuff for that. Hendricks martini with a twist.
  10. Nice to see a clipper produce some precip east of the mountains. Nice to get on the board and see some mood flakes/frozen.
  11. The January 2022 event was a fun one - got about 11" in Alexandria and it was 65 the day before. Snowed heavy for like 6 hours before tapering off - lost a few trees around us with the weight of the snow. I still had my Christmas lights/decorations up which put the icing on the cake for the beauty of it.
  12. March seems like more of a snow month than December the last 10 years. And lol at 4-5 weeks being our window.
  13. Don’t mean to interrupt the CC talk, but nice to see the ensembles continue to suggest the pattern flips more favorable in the lead up to Christmas with ridging along the west coast.
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