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Everything posted by nj2va

  1. T-14 hours until USA / Dutch - USA USA USA!
  2. I don’t mind a delay by 1-2 weeks…gets us closer to prime climo. That, and I’m at Deep Creek week between Christmas and New Years.
  3. I’d rather dissect that for an hour than look at more northern hemisphere 500mb anomaly maps for H360.
  4. Yep, or the H5 energy passes south of us in south/central VA would help too. We’ll have lots of solutions show up over the next week. Night/day from last December where it was clear we stood no chance in the mid-Atlantic.
  5. I just finished watching the recording of the game…FFS.
  6. Worry posts spread like wildfire in the LR thread - if the 12-17th window gets pushed back to the end of December, it’ll quite literally be a dumpster fire of moaning and groaning. We’ve seen delayed = denied but I have a hard time believing we come out of the upcoming advertised without seeing any snow (unless the thing just goes poof in the next 5 days which seems unlikely). We also have to remember total annual snowfall in DC is like 15-20” depending on where you are in the immediate metro area…coming out of this pattern with a 4-8” moderate event is climo.
  7. Hopefully a good sign for the rest of the winter based on historical analogs: In the replies, he also added: "of the years were La Nina going by the monthly 3.4 value. 1995, 2010, 1962, 1970. All 4 had a -NAO January, 2 of the 4 had negative Jan and Feb"
  8. Apparently a GFS upgrade went live the other day (16.3). I don’t understand most of this but it looks like they are saying it’ll fix snowfall amounts in marginal setups (among other upgrades). https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf
  9. 18z GFS is an upslope dream for the mountains as those vorticities rotate through.
  10. Jeebus, a 562 anomaly west-based -NAO.
  11. Gorgeous pink colors playing off the whispy clouds at sunset.
  12. I was about to post the same thing. Did you get a sneak peak of that this morning?
  13. Weenie question but is that indicated by those squiggly 500 bars over Mexico?
  14. I’m flying out on the 12th for a work trip and returning on the 15th. It’ll certainly snow here that week.
  15. GFS OP shows how we can score mid month (caveat: it’ll change wildly, rely on the ensembles, etc). Should at least be more exciting than last December where we didn’t stand a chance (even in the mountains).
  16. Make that 793 for Ovi and 403 goals on the road (#1 all time now).
  17. Ovi scores goal 792. Closing in on 2nd place all time.
  18. I'm sure its been posted here somewhere, but I'd love to see stats on -AO in early winter and their staying power throughout the season. I thought I read somewhere that typically -AO/-NAO early in winter have staying power/consistency vs a one and done type pattern.
  19. Ugh, just got a meeting added to my calendar from 2-230. FFS.
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