Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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You in Stephens City? If so, there is little if any lag between returns and ground truth. Interesting...
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Uh oh... just hit 40...
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Remarkably short gap between returns overhead and snow on the ground considering the low dew air out in front.
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@Ralph Wiggum not sure about the decade but 0z EPS was basically a carbon copy of 12z. As already noted, gefs is slowly caving. 2 more good runs and we can start relaxing a little. Relaxing in the 60s and maybe 70s...
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I predict ECNPZ to start declaring a bust within the hour as virga fills in above and no flakes making it to the surface.
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Pretty cool pivoting feature of enhanced precip on the NAMs. Looks like a mini IVT with a hint of comma head. Could be a shelter in place couple hours for many in CMD
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Down to 33. Efficient rad cooling so far. Gfs looks solid
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Just dropped into the 30s. 39 and 7 more to go. Or 10.
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Some of the 1 hour QPF totals on the 18z euro are impressive. EZF is .14 between 1-2pm. Many areas have 1-2 hours of .10/hr. There's going to be road stickage if that's accurate.
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Damn, kuchera and snow depth are widespread 2-4" on 18z euro. Hot doggie
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Now we have nearly full agreement across every piece of guidance. Maybe 0z can bump qpf to .50+.... lol
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Yea man, since mid Dec the ensembles have been on fire across the board. Nearly every major move has been telegraphed far in advance. One of the better years in recent memory for ens guidance. EPS has been pretty amazing and that's why I don't really doubt the d10-15 flip. Give me 2 more runs with a similar progression and I'll be very confident with where we're going.
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Don't want to post this in the disco thread and get everyone all riled up.... EPS mean high temps this weekend are in the mid 60s. That's very impressive for a 52 member mean... There must be a bunch of solutions near 70. Being honest... I would LOVE a weekend in the 60s
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18z gfs op was a full cave to the EPS/GEPS progression. 18z gefs is a partial cave. Get all 3 global ens looking the same with no can kicking and the spirit of winter can return here. Cracks in the gefs stubborn armor have just shown up...
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@George BM Thundersnow typically requires a very vigorous upper level low and/or a bombing surface low as it crosses our latitude. Neither is on tap for tommorrow. There's good upper level support for periods of heavy rates but I don't see much chance for a light show. ETA: lake effect is basically low topped convection so mesoscale dynamics can be intense with avg upper level support.
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Looking at sim satellite it looks like DCA is mostly cloudy from sunrise to onset. That should help. Need good rad cooling before clouds roll in. I wouldn't be surprised if DCA doesn't get above 40 if they can get dowm to 30 overnight
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One thing that has bugged me since beginning of Dec is even when d10-15 showed a nice mean h5 setup there was always very few good snow solutions in the mix. I know snowmaps are flawed but they help tell a story under the hood. 12z eps is encouraging for that. Not only is the mean h5 ok but the ens are always showing an unusually high # of solutions that include snowfall considering the lead time. Best run of met winter and that's indisputable
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I'm already working on new material for the obs thread. Things like "dendrites are so fat they're setting off car alarms" and stuff. I'll say this.... if these soundings and fronto panels are right, it's going to be quite a show for some people tomorrow. Might be best rates since Jan 2016...
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700mb frontogen and UVV (vertical velocity) panels show where the best lift is located in the mid and upperlevels. Confluent flow and lift is the mechanism for precip. The more robust the heavier precip. Different levels are important for understanding snowgrowth. I'm not well versed there with the exception of 700mb UVV/frontogen being the most important for big beautiful dendrites.
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18z gfs h7 FGEN says central MD whiteout. hee hee
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It could be a surprisingly heavy snowfall for a time with big dendrites/aggregates. DGZ is at a great level, column is plenty cold with no dumb warm noses, and lift/omegas are rockin'. My inner weenie is happy.
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I was just looking at the sounding for 18z. We're both getting raked with fatties. Like 5 runs in a row with big omegas. 18z GFS expands the area northward. Surface quickly drops to near freezing right after this panel.
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GFS has a better area of .40 qpf. I'll toss the RGEM for now.
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The differences with the last 2 runs of the mesos and now globals (ICON, GFS) have been noise. Very steady guidance 12-18z. I think we're mostly locked in. Big winners always TBD gametime.
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RGEM is essentially identical to 12z. The QPF distribution shifted around a little bit but the end result is the same. Good run imo and very steady back to back
