Bob Chill

EPS has been picking up a window in the 17th-20th range for a few days. 12z is the best run yet. You can't expect any type of majority or consensus d10+. There's enough decent storms under the hood this run and not just nickle/dimes to be encouraged for 12 hours.

Sounds like you think the GEFS is right then and that's fine. But there is no doubt a model war going on with the consensus (GEPS/EPS) leaning towards knocking down the SE ridge and getting rid of the western trough inside of 2 weeks. There is reason to doubt a "treadmill" of SER/-PNA for weeks on end.

With my sunglasses because that is sun angle preseason Before you check out for 4 weeks. Check out the EPS d10-15. Very nice shift with the longwave pattern and a nice uptick in legit storms down the line. Very good run and speeds up getting rid of the SE ridge/western trough.

GEFS remains an outlier down the line. I figured the 12z GEPS would shift towards the GEFS but the spread between the ens widened. This goes along with my thoughts as to where I think we're going this month. Maybe the GEPS/EPS are too fast in shuffling things around but this is encouraging. Not a great pattern but def more wintry than the next 10 days.

I use the term as a basic adjective and not inside of a technical box. Any trough that touches the arctic circle and gulf of mexico is a full latitude trough in my brain.

I was set up!

It was really popular in the 80s and lots of people got shot over it. Oh wait... I thought you said freebase. Scatch that.

At least it's on its own now. EPS/GEPS combo looks quite a bit different and have been slowly improving each run. I'll toss the gefs until one of the others start to agree

Every time I watch Wilson I wonder if he's part cyborg or AI or something. Level of precision at times is remarkable. Not just throwing the ball either.

NA is our acronym for North America. Full latitude trough. Get that neg tilt and close off on the way north and it's fireworks for someone. It was just an interesting panel. Total fantasyland stuff though

It's atypical but this is a big storm setup for the eastern US in general. One of the biggest NA troughs I've seen. Obviously it's an op out of range but this is an impressive panel

Agree on the rollercoaster. Lost some time on any flip but now (imho only) we're seeing some agreement on how we get out and gaining a little time in the process. Gefs is now odd man out but until all 3 global ens agree on progression and timing I'll be nervous. Give me 2 runs of the gefs showing the GoA ridge building and I'm all in. It's still not a great look but magnitudes better than the next 10 days...

Yea, after growing up for decades with sudden death rules, I think the current rule is perfectly fair.

I always liked Cousins and loved Diggs as a terp. Was rooting for the Vikes. Amazing final drive. They earned it. Congrats

I posted this yesterday but feel even better about where the pattern is going. Imho- both the geps and eps are moving towards this look late Jan. Not a big dog but certainly faaaar better than where we are now.

EPS improved with the potential around the 17th. Meteos aren't out yet so I can't compare fine details run over run but overall it moved in the right direction. It's a tight window but looking half decent from afar. Gefs is odd man out with shuffling the pac ridge/trough. Eps and geps are rolling forward to a decent but not amazing look. Pleased overall as it appears the -pna death grip is easing.

Here's 0z eps spread during the 15-18th. About 10 members with more than a dusting so 20% see opportunity during this period. We'll see how that changes over the coming week

We have a discrete window between the 15-18th when strong confluence develops to our north out into the Atl and a half decent cold airmass to work with. All ens agree on some version. The tricky part is it's transient. So once chance at something from what I see. Will be at least 4-5 days before we know if a shortwave is going to cooperate

That transient confluence and favorable atlantic around the 17th is now showing up on all ensembles. Not sure how long the window will be but imho it's one of the better looks we've seen. All kinds of scenarios on the table with a big slow moving CAD high.

Seeing Brady's year end with a pick 6 right in his face is bringing me immense immature pleasure

Verbatim that panel is a fail because the atl help is brief and back to square one by the end. However, spread is really starting to show up with both the pac ridge and confluence above us. I'm huggin the geps until something better comes along ETA: under the hood of that mean h5 panel is a good mix of half decent solutions to our north. About half are still crappy in the east but there are enough good ones to make it interesting with storm tracks.

I'd be thrilled with an active pattern and cold around. Ice/sleet/snow... don't care. Anything but rain and 50. 18z gfs shows the same Atlantic help as the ens around the 17th. Slowly seeing some consistency on our next real window.

@psuhoffman My best guess is we end up in this regime before the end of Jan. Geps is already there in 15 days. Eps/gefs are showing signs of moving this way. Latest weeklies look close enough.

@psuhoffman over the short/medium term we really couldn't draw up a worse hemispheric pattern. I'm avidly chasing less of a disaster. Today was a good day in modeland. String a few more in a row and it gets interesting again. It's been 3 weeks since the flip in mid Dec and all of our early fears from that flip are coming true. I just want out. I know we're not magically flipping to a big dog setup. I'm doubting a big dog setup happens at all but still 6-8 weeks to go before ruling it out. But for god sakes... give us a little cookie to chew on. Something.... anything...

@Ji Look what the geps does in the npac. That's a big change from where we are next 10 days. I'm thinking a cluster of eps members are seeing the same thing and that's why the run over run change on the EPS was so big. For the first time in a while we're seeing ens guidance in the nPac to not agree out in time in the npac. That nasty Aleutian ridge may be on the move before we think...