Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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Some of these are snow on snow. Notable uptick in big solutions d8-15
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Here's the member spread for that period. It's hard to capture in a single panel with timing differences but there's 5-6 legit snowstorms centered around the 23rd. Good signal for long range.
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Weird progression in general. GFS is off on a tangent. Interesting to see though. Haven't seen many op runs with any decent blocking in the AO/NAO spaces for a long time.
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Look what the GFS is doing around Hudson/Baffin.... heh...
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NS is tricky here. There's no way to pin down transient confluence. I can easily see how this can be a great snow event, a major mixed event, or a heartbreaking all rain event. Hurry up and wait is our catchphrase for the next week.
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It's full winter in a week. Snow to sleet to ice to build a concrete base then a widespread 8-12" cold powder followed by the deep freeze. Winter automatically gets a B grade from me if that happens
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True but need confirmation. If it shows up on the cmc or euro I'm all in
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36 hour clean snowstorms happen all the time with no blocking right?
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Weeklies recap is easy. The -epo/+pna in general continues through late Feb. No blocking so temps oscillate AN/BN but are cold more often than warm. Looks like a muted version of Feb 2015 for the most part. Considering how winter has gone so far, if the weeklies are right it would be a win.
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Sure like the odds showing up. Imo it looks like better than a 50/50 shot of winter wx within 15 days. We'll prob be tracking a discrete mixed event within then next 4-5 days or so
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I like the gefs version of d15 better than the eps. Similar with the general pattern but keeps the door open for pac storms/stj activity. ETA: this is a visual of exactly what @psuhoffman was talking about with a -epo and neutral or -pna
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@C.A.P.E. one of the best gefs runs of the year. Ji would only approve of 4 member solutions though. Lol. I was a little surprised how many members give us a little snow or ice on tne 16th-17th. Not sure I buy that but overall a solid run and inline with eps/geps
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Just for the fun execise... 18z gefs is pretty close to a big snow event around the 19th. Move that north atl low a little south to the 50/50 area and beef up blocking in the nao domain and the solution changes to legit snow.
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The 7 day mean might not be dry but a check under the hood does show a notable dropoff in QPF after the 20th across the EPS members. The period centered around the 19th is becoming a legit threat window. Still too much spread. We'll know within 3-5 days.
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Come on man. You know the drill. The pattern never looked "amazing" so we deal with the flaws. There will be plenty without blocking.
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Yea, beggars can't be choosers here. Even with the issues it's still magnitudes better than where we are over the next 8 days. Crawl, walk, and run.
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Looking at the multi parameter 850/QPF it looks like the trough axis sets up a little too far east. A lot of ocean storms once the trough digs. Still a number of good solutions here just making the observation that the risk of cold/dry shouldn't be overlooked.
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EPS is speeding up the flip to a +PNA/-EPO. Solid by d10-11 in those regions.
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[opens weenie rule book] Euro has been consistently too amped in the long range so it will correct south [closes weenie rule book]
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What the hell are you talking about? The Euro/EPS is discussed in detail every.single.run. The EPS has actually been the front runner showing the shift back to a colder regime in the east. Enjoy your delusional life.
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GFS/GEFS has been terrible with temps in the LR. WAAAY too cold all winter. Don't get me wrong, it looks like we'll turn colder in 8 days or so but unlikely to be as cold as the gfs says.
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Yep, we'll prob see numerous versions of what the GFS just spit out. Perfectly fits the lr pattern on the ens. All options on the table of course but if there is a precip event during the d9-12 period it will likely not be all snow but could still be plenty of frozen. Beyond that (and way out there in fantasyland) things could evolve towards a clean snow setup. So far everything remains on track for a return to winter sometime around the 18th.
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I'm sure you onky like 1 of these solutions but it's a bit of an eye opener seeing how many members have 2 frozen events between the 18th-24th. Best GEFS run yet for activity. Maybe we get a region wide 2-4" with a layer of sleet and ice on top to build a concrete base and then get a big all snow storm on top of that. That's exactly what P3 is. Lol
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Looks like we won't be getting much sleep beginning in about a week. Anyone who's insane like us and stays up for the euro when things are ripe needs to plan accordingly
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18z gefs says tune up your ice scraper. I've never seen so many long range snow to ice storms on an ens run. There are some big snows in the mix but the theme of the run is snow to ice or just ice starting around 1/16 but gets really busy from the 19th onward.
