Bob Chill

Sure like the odds showing up. Imo it looks like better than a 50/50 shot of winter wx within 15 days. We'll prob be tracking a discrete mixed event within then next 4-5 days or so

I like the gefs version of d15 better than the eps. Similar with the general pattern but keeps the door open for pac storms/stj activity. ETA: this is a visual of exactly what @psuhoffman was talking about with a -epo and neutral or -pna

@C.A.P.E. one of the best gefs runs of the year. Ji would only approve of 4 member solutions though. Lol. I was a little surprised how many members give us a little snow or ice on tne 16th-17th. Not sure I buy that but overall a solid run and inline with eps/geps

Just for the fun execise... 18z gefs is pretty close to a big snow event around the 19th. Move that north atl low a little south to the 50/50 area and beef up blocking in the nao domain and the solution changes to legit snow.

The 7 day mean might not be dry but a check under the hood does show a notable dropoff in QPF after the 20th across the EPS members. The period centered around the 19th is becoming a legit threat window. Still too much spread. We'll know within 3-5 days.

I'm starting to wonder if BethesdaBoy is back...

About half of us do iirc. From Dec-Feb I count how much the bay freezes over as a winter grade. There's a pond back in the woods of a nature center near my house that I skate around on when it's safe. Need good cold for that. Ice was over 10" thick in Feb 2014. I personally find cold/dry quite enjoyable until Mar. Once we hit Mar it should either be snowing or 60-70. Anything else sucks

Come on man. You know the drill. The pattern never looked "amazing" so we deal with the flaws. There will be plenty without blocking.

Yea, beggars can't be choosers here. Even with the issues it's still magnitudes better than where we are over the next 8 days. Crawl, walk, and run.

Looking at the multi parameter 850/QPF it looks like the trough axis sets up a little too far east. A lot of ocean storms once the trough digs. Still a number of good solutions here just making the observation that the risk of cold/dry shouldn't be overlooked.

EPS is speeding up the flip to a +PNA/-EPO. Solid by d10-11 in those regions.

Again, what the hell are you talking about. I focus almost exclusively ensemble guidance beyond 6-7 days. If you're trying to troll me you need to get the facts straight. You're actually trolling yourself here and look like a fool

[opens weenie rule book] Euro has been consistently too amped in the long range so it will correct south [closes weenie rule book]

What the hell are you talking about? The Euro/EPS is discussed in detail every.single.run. The EPS has actually been the front runner showing the shift back to a colder regime in the east. Enjoy your delusional life.

GFS/GEFS has been terrible with temps in the LR. WAAAY too cold all winter. Don't get me wrong, it looks like we'll turn colder in 8 days or so but unlikely to be as cold as the gfs says.

Yep, we'll prob see numerous versions of what the GFS just spit out. Perfectly fits the lr pattern on the ens. All options on the table of course but if there is a precip event during the d9-12 period it will likely not be all snow but could still be plenty of frozen. Beyond that (and way out there in fantasyland) things could evolve towards a clean snow setup. So far everything remains on track for a return to winter sometime around the 18th.

Pretty much all I do. We have a lot of recent experience with a strong unblocked -epo pattern so it's not hard to envision what it implies if current progs are correct. Cold is prob inbound but locked in cold is unlikely without some semblance of blocking in the Atl. No sign of that so hurry up and wait for a week and maybe a discrete threat appears.

I'm sure you onky like 1 of these solutions but it's a bit of an eye opener seeing how many members have 2 frozen events between the 18th-24th. Best GEFS run yet for activity. Maybe we get a region wide 2-4" with a layer of sleet and ice on top to build a concrete base and then get a big all snow storm on top of that. That's exactly what P3 is. Lol

Looks like we won't be getting much sleep beginning in about a week. Anyone who's insane like us and stays up for the euro when things are ripe needs to plan accordingly

18z gefs says tune up your ice scraper. I've never seen so many long range snow to ice storms on an ens run. There are some big snows in the mix but the theme of the run is snow to ice or just ice starting around 1/16 but gets really busy from the 19th onward.

Blocking? Dude, I gave up on that a month ago. A -NAO could pop out of nowhere but the AO is likely to stay + imo.

Starting around d9 on both the GEFS and EPS there are a number of mixed precip solutions and it makes sense given the mean h5 look. I know everyone is dying for a clean coastal with perfect conditions (who wouldn't) but that won't come easy from what I'm seeing. We have at least 8 days of shutout to discuss. So far so good imo

Yea, it was definitely a "wintry winter" but ice/mix/mess was far more common that clean snow iirc. I could be wrong cuz that's a loooong time ago.

Yep, but man did we have some luck on our side during those periods. Ridge/trough axis kept lining up. Don't forget 93-94 as that was a very similar pattern with much different results.

I kept seeing the CFS weeklies going in that direction and it made sense that we could *potentially* end up in that type of regime so nice to see it showing inside of 15 days now. I think the -EPO is going to be legit and not a fantasy. How everything else breaks is hard to say. Assuming we do enter a +PNA/-EPO/+NAO regime we should all know what to expect as we have a lot of practice. 2014&15 had a bunch of luck on top of a decent pattern. 93-94 has almost no luck unless you like ice. Cold at times is a lock with a hemispheric pattern like that. Ptype is at the mercy of luck/timing.