Bob Chill

Damn dude. I had to screencast to my 65" tv so I didnt have to scroll so damn far on my tablet

It's a grey area and we all have our own rating system. To me, true miller A's run the southern stream and turn the corner. They often run into the TN valley and transfer but imo they are still pure miller As. Any northern stream storm is a hybrid or miller B. This one is more of a hybrid than a miller B but we all think our own way

They still bring that up to this day. When the planets and moon did their special dance a couple months ago my son was like "you still talk to the telescope guy? This would be cool to look at", Oh, the younger twins are 16 now. My son is 6'4". Lol. At 6'2" I absolutely NOT used to looking up at people in the house. My older twins both graduated from MD and have moved out. Still come by all the time to eat all my food and make me fix things they broke so basically nothing has changed except where they sleep

Nah, that's like me taking some of the credit for a job well done when I actually didn't do jack sh!t. That's a politician move right there.

Yea, I totally get that. As a father of 4 kids and a lot of friends over 50 years old, I worry myself when someone goes quiet. That was never my intention. Had I had known at any time that my absence was going to be this long I would have dropped a line. I was really glad when WxUSAF emailed me a few months ago honestly. I had already been thinking that I'm indirectly (or directly) causing people to have dark thoughts about my whereabouts because I'm the same exact way with other people.

Hey peeps. Let me clear the air first. I never intended to stay offline here this long. It just happened. However, last couple years lost their luster for me meaning I stopped having fun here. That's a me problem tho. Y'all do you forever. Thing is, I'm pretty damn busy with real life basically always. This place is a time suck and a half. Then add it all the hours spent staring at maps/charts/graphs/blah blah blah and I realized that I'm absolutely not using my own potential to do big things in life. So ALL that energy and analysis that I traded off here I put to work somewhere else and it was the smartest decision of my life. Nobody will like to hear this but I've become disinterested in long range tracking. Too much self induced stress/work for basically nothing in return for years at a time. I became a square peg and this game is a circle hole. Also a circle jerk but that's a different topic alltogether. I haven't tracked jack shit all year. I knew it was a nina and that's all I needed to know. If it happens great and if not I have more important stuff to do. But...... but................. BUT.......... IT"S FOOKIN HAPPENING. BOOM. I'm here for jokes and obs and entertainment. I really don't care nearly as much what any model says cuz wx gon wx and it doesn't give AF about our feelings. Nice to see a blocked coastal in a nina though. That's a bonus check and a half.

I could have forecasted that for my yard 6 years in advance.

That's for you guys to figure out cuz I don't care if I'm me or not. Don't want to get 5 posted or banned tho so I won't derail the thread. Banter

Sup peeps. I'm new here. How much for Rockville?

I've scanned models last few days but haven't taken a close look until just now. Long range is suckin. Lol. No way to sugarcoat. Maybe we can squeeze something in this month but it's sure not going to come easy. Unless things trend better quickly, I'm not seeing much of a chance until the last couple days of the month. Things trended from pretty good to pretty bad in 5 days so maybe in 5 days it looks good again

Bingo. Getting crushed this week. I've passed the torch until further notice. As much as I like snow... I like making money better...

Deform Porn starring Highratio Rippage

Extrapolating ensembles is a sure sign winter is a raging dumpster fire.

Haven't seen many good h5 setups lately. This is a really good one. Keep em coming

Scratch my last post. All in 18z gfs.

Been busy AF last few days and haven't really looked at anything in detail. @psuhoffman covered everything but I wanted to post something about the d10 window. Seems crazy that odds favor rain but they do for now so it is what it is. The 12z EPS qpf and snow meteos show just how low our odds are for now. This can change in a blink as it's far out there in time. Some of the rain solutions are surely ice but snowfall is meager considering near unanimous support for precip. QPF Snowfall This comparison will be something I'm watching closely this week. Especially after the 18z gfs showed a path to victory

You're exactly right. This weekend was a "surprise" chance at something. It was never a classic or good track. Just one of the ways we do flawed around here pretty regularly. The potentially longer window starts after this weekend and that has been the case since we caught wind of a change for the better. Expectations go through the roof the second an op shows a good snow event 5-10 days away.

No biggie. Euro weeklies are cold to very cold in early Feb and AN qpf. We should be over climo by Valentine's day

Find me a better D15+ fantasy op run... lol. Wow

That's the point I was trying to make. This isn't a Feb 10 or Jan 16 look where you just drool over the mean pattern and it's a matter of time before a miller A hits you. We could fail next weekend and blank out the next week and STILL be staring at multiple chances in the near future. That's a very good place to be. I hate discrete windows where if you miss out it could be days/weeks/months before another chance rolls along. The upcoming period looks far better than that.

@Ji Here's our long track coastal

You rarely see mean 850 anoms this cold d15 on the EPS. Very impressive panel from far out in time. Temps could be very friendly after this reshuffle settles down.

This is not a dream period imo. Storms will not come easy nor easily be all snow. It's a good pattern during primetime but it's several levels below a really good winter wx pattern.

EPS is pretty weak for the d10 deal. Majority of solutions that have a storm are too far east. There's a couple good hits but small minority. Safe to say there is little to no ens support for a blocked coastal.

The wobbles have commenced. Euro broke the trend so we probably know less than we did 30 minutes ago. lol