Bob Chill

Gfs cranks up the -nao again. It starts building d5-6 and keeps getting stronger. Blocking isn't forecast well at all with long leads. A big AO or NAO block can suddenly pop up so the idea isn't insane. Just the people that care about it are insane

Here's the DCA meteo from the 12z eps. It gets better as you head west and north but still damn good for long range. EPS keeps increasing the # of bigger hits. Best d9-15 run this winter.

The op knows I don't care about d7+. It's the ens suite that will do it. Get ready for SE ridge so big it starts melting greenland

Looks like we took it several levels too far today. 18z gefs will punish us for it

Took some liberties again but if the d15 EPS mean is right we continue in a very good setup

LOL- I don't break that one out often because it's rare when we get a 8"+ storm locked inside of 5 days. Maybe later this month...

Without a doubt... best EPS run of the year. Considering the good stuff doesn't start for 8-9 days... I think I counted at least 15 members with 6"+ @ DCA. Some are single events and others are snow on snow. I'm tellin ya... we need to get extra sleep over the next week cuz it gon b bizzy

LOL- wait till you check out the snow on the members. lol. Weeniesh doesn't do it justice for a long range prog. lol

EPS just made a notable shift towards the possibility of a -AO/NAO. lol. I'll post a panel once the run is done. Teaser.... it's weeniesh

I took some liberties but it's still a good split flow pattern... heh

May as well discuss the h5 panel too. There's almost a -AO going and no doubt confluence to our north and the door is open in the west for STJ to undercut the PNA/EPO ridge. This is a ripe panel for winter wx here.

7 day MSLP panel shows HP max over Maine and also sprawling HP in the upper MW so it's actually a 4 week lead CAD sig. LOL. I've never seen it either. All in though.

Hey SE folks, first post for me in your forum this year. I've been wanting to stop by and let you know that I like what I'm seeing for your area but honestly I haven't liked anything I've seen since Dec 1st... until now... I know you guys have covered the reshuffle in the Pac etc. There are a lot of clues saying the -EPO is going to build and stay. Weeklies and CFS agree that it will prob continue through all of Feb but that's way out there in time. At the very least a -EPO period seems to be locking in next week. We'll see how long it lasts. Not sure how a -EPO/+NAO works down in the SE but a blend of Jan 1994, JF2014, and Feb 2015 is a decent mix of recent similar periods to what I'm seeing now. CAD Ice/mixed events are the most likely but any well timed wave on a boundary can break the right way. GFS and EPS ops suddenly starting considering their options about flipping the AO and/or NAO negative by d10. Ens don't agree with that yet but it was either a total coincidence or a clue that maybe hope is not lost on getting some blocking going at some point before speedos and SPF30 As always, I'm rootin for you guys. Maybe we get to share in a rare SE/MA coastal that glides slowly out to sea off the coast of NJ. lol

CFS has a CAD signature 4 weeks out. LOL

CFS basically locks in the -EPO pattern for 4 weeks. Not far off from the latest weeklies (I like the CFS better for obvious reasons lol). Let assume we get a persistent -EPO pattern with oscillations in the AO and PNA space for an entire month... It could turn into a memorable period. Maybe not for classic coastals but an active wintry period with lots of progressive/fast movers. I'm getting kinda stoked honestly. I felt pretty good last week that the disaster -PNA pattern would release its grip this month and things would get better. Seems to be working out so far.

Yea man, it's no doubt an eyebrow raiser. NAO flips are always difficult to predict in advance on models. Maybe it sneaks up on us. This isn't the same type of pattern as 2015 if that's the case. Even if a real -NAO doesn't show up there isn't a massive rotating TPV like there was in Feb 2015. This is like a muted 2015 but in a good way. We'll see how things shake out but at the very least we can safely say that our best chance of winter wx of the season is on tap d8-15.

Some of these are snow on snow. Notable uptick in big solutions d8-15

Here's the member spread for that period. It's hard to capture in a single panel with timing differences but there's 5-6 legit snowstorms centered around the 23rd. Good signal for long range.

Weird progression in general. GFS is off on a tangent. Interesting to see though. Haven't seen many op runs with any decent blocking in the AO/NAO spaces for a long time.

Look what the GFS is doing around Hudson/Baffin.... heh...

NS is tricky here. There's no way to pin down transient confluence. I can easily see how this can be a great snow event, a major mixed event, or a heartbreaking all rain event. Hurry up and wait is our catchphrase for the next week.

It's full winter in a week. Snow to sleet to ice to build a concrete base then a widespread 8-12" cold powder followed by the deep freeze. Winter automatically gets a B grade from me if that happens

True but need confirmation. If it shows up on the cmc or euro I'm all in

36 hour clean snowstorms happen all the time with no blocking right?

Weeklies recap is easy. The -epo/+pna in general continues through late Feb. No blocking so temps oscillate AN/BN but are cold more often than warm. Looks like a muted version of Feb 2015 for the most part. Considering how winter has gone so far, if the weeklies are right it would be a win.