Bob Chill

Another promising EPS run coming out. Speeds up building the -EPO ridge and is decidedly colder in the east d9+ than the 0z run. Looks like a messy gradient pattern begins around d9 that continues to improve after.

GEPS looks like the GEFS but quicker. Half decent by d10 but this is nice to see. Just like the GEFS but quicker/better. -EPO/-NAO/+PNA and with the trough near Hawaii the STJ may be a player down the line.

We're at least 5-7 days away from any shot at a d5 event so you may want to take a break for a while. The only things that will be discussed here are outside of your range.

Don't waste your time. The fact that the response was meh tells you that you are dealing with an irrational person so trying to be rational is futile. The fact that we're consistently seeing an uptick in activity as we move forward is good. Expecting any type of consensus on a discrete event d10+ is silly.

Is it?

I looped the members. BUSY is a good word. Quite a few mixed/ice events during the period but some legit coastal shellackings in the mix. Best GEFS I've seen d10-15 all winter. Similar to what the EPS is doing. Seeing the legit coastals on the run was nice because they have been few and far between on the GEFS for basically the entire winter.

All in. GEFS is hinting at a transition towards a legit storm look for these parts. This panel is only a couple small adjustments away to put the MA in a good spot for a decent storm. No idea if it's right but between all ens guidance I'm not worried about being stuck in a shutout pattern for too long here.

12z gfs spit out exactly what we were just talking about. lol. As long as we get a foot of it I'm good with ice.

This is what I'm thinking too. Ens are active with cold around but it's not a good/classic setup so mixy/messy is the most likely outcome unless we time something well again. No way to know anything irt timing d10+ of course. All signs are slowly pointing towards a period where we won't be torching and it won't be dry.

It's been that way since thanksgiving. Windows opening and closing. Today wasn't even much of a window but worked out anyways. Would be nice if our next event is all snow with cold surface to start

Appears ens guidance is moving towards the idea that we may get another event inside of 2 weeks. Gefs has looked like utter crap for the 18th-22nd until 18z today. Long leads are always muddy and scattered witn discrete events so I don't focus on any single solution. I like using the meteos for activity in general. For d10-15 this is pretty busy. Epsecially considering how lame the previous 4 runs have been. I would feel more confident if the gefs and eps looked more similar in the upper levels. Maybe we see the gap close within a couple days. EPS has had 3 good/steady runs in a row. Get another 3-4 that stay busy with the same general pattern and it's prob going to be right. I'm not hyping the period at all as it can go poof in an instant so I'm just looking fpr consistently at this stage. So far I like most of what I'm seeing for another chance this month with the caveat being the prog'd upper level pattern is decent but not great and not a big storm look.

Even with the large upper level differences between the EPS and GEFS the 18z GEFS is pretty busy d10-15. Majority of members drop frozen and a handful are pretty good. The 18-21st window keeps looking better. We have 10 days of deadspace to get through first so patience pills will be needed

Back to back powerful north altantic ulls moving through the 50/50 region and create a pretty stout -nao ridge in their wake. Looks like it's a byproduct of the NA weather pattern and not from europe. Sick d15 panel to enjoy for another 6 hours or so

I'm not sure where we would go from the end of the 12z EPS but there was nice uptick in legit storms between the 18-21st. Another solid run in the books.

Stupid GEFS reverted back to the trough west/ridge east. The difference between the GEFS and EPS is quite large right now. Even with the crappy looks late, there a # of solutions with snowfall including some real storms. Back in Dec when a good pattern showed up d10-15 there were hardly any storms on the ens but not the case right now. I'll just keep huggin the EPS. It's busy d10-15 and hopefully we are too.

@Ralph Wiggum not sure about the decade but 0z EPS was basically a carbon copy of 12z. As already noted, gefs is slowly caving. 2 more good runs and we can start relaxing a little. Relaxing in the 60s and maybe 70s...

Yea man, since mid Dec the ensembles have been on fire across the board. Nearly every major move has been telegraphed far in advance. One of the better years in recent memory for ens guidance. EPS has been pretty amazing and that's why I don't really doubt the d10-15 flip. Give me 2 more runs with a similar progression and I'll be very confident with where we're going.

Don't want to post this in the disco thread and get everyone all riled up.... EPS mean high temps this weekend are in the mid 60s. That's very impressive for a 52 member mean... There must be a bunch of solutions near 70. Being honest... I would LOVE a weekend in the 60s

18z gfs op was a full cave to the EPS/GEPS progression. 18z gefs is a partial cave. Get all 3 global ens looking the same with no can kicking and the spirit of winter can return here. Cracks in the gefs stubborn armor have just shown up...

@George BM Thundersnow typically requires a very vigorous upper level low and/or a bombing surface low as it crosses our latitude. Neither is on tap for tommorrow. There's good upper level support for periods of heavy rates but I don't see much chance for a light show. ETA: lake effect is basically low topped convection so mesoscale dynamics can be intense with avg upper level support.

One thing that has bugged me since beginning of Dec is even when d10-15 showed a nice mean h5 setup there was always very few good snow solutions in the mix. I know snowmaps are flawed but they help tell a story under the hood. 12z eps is encouraging for that. Not only is the mean h5 ok but the ens are always showing an unusually high # of solutions that include snowfall considering the lead time. Best run of met winter and that's indisputable

There are 2 things the EPS is trending towards that can salvage a portion of Jan. 1) is the progression of reducing the nasty -PNA/Aleutian ridge. That has been speeding up with the GEPS/EPS and the GEFS is being stubborn. 2) is the scand ridge pushing into Greenland. That's compressing heights to our NE in the Atl and creating confluence and lower heights in our area. This is very important. If the EPS is totally wrong about the scand ridge then we're still facing some SER issues and we'll need the trough axis (assuming there even is one) in a perfect location. Here's the run over run h5 comparison. Looking better in the right places. Still a hurry up and wait situation though. lol

EPS could be too fast or it could be seeing things more clearly. We had a couple days of good/bad run over run recently but the last 3 runs have been pretty promising honestly. And the trend has been for the better. I do know this is by FAR the busiest D10-15 meteogram for my yard all winter. There's not even a close second because much of the d10-15 has been void of anything good irt snowfall all winter. I'll just hug this for now:

Best d10-15 EPS run of winter by a large margin. Implies that if things break right there is good storm potential and not just messy nickles and dimes.