Bob Chill

@psuhoffman if we aren't going to have a -ao/nao, the current d15 mean h5 across all ens is the next best thing imo. Feb 2015 was mostly northern stream. Most of 13/14 was northern stream except the Feb storm. Current look is like 2014/15 + southern stream. I can't really recall any winter in the past 15 years that had a similar hemispheric lw pattern

Lol. Only if you don't want any snow this weekend.

Keep this in mind going forward... After next weekend we look to enter a period of split flow. Ops will never ever ever be remotely close to accurate 10 days away with split flow regimes because the northern stream holds the keys and ops can barely get the NS right within 5 days. Stick to ens guidance only and even then it's just general ideas.

Intriguing panel... Haven't seen a d10 fantasy setup like this since 2016....

Def not the same algo as last year. If you flip between ptype and snow maps it clearly shows that zr isn't counting. Sleet is muddy but doesn't look like 10-1 to me. Models are converging on a step down pattern taking place over a week. I'm not expecting real cold or deep winter appeal until 11-13 days down the line when the what appears to be a classic -EPO arctic dump. First couple fronts starting next weekend are prob nothing more than return to normal winter here. Beyond that looks like real winter with temps. Snow tbd.

Cap Grille dry aged porterhouses are next level. Been about 8 years since my last one cuz kids and college and stuff but I'll make it back before I'm dead. Happy Bday and take advantage of AARP discounts!

Yea, no big deal about next weekend. It's never looked like a good storm. Just one of the ways we stat pad on the regular around here. Even if it totally blows up it's nothing more than a beginning of a new regime. Our chances should progressively increase as we move forward.

I think you mean the 1st? Euro monthlies are run once per month unless I'm out to lunch. Feb looks just like the cfs monthly/weekly and is basically a Feb 2015 redux. Right or wrong, it's remarkable have well everything agrees for Feb. There are a number of reasons to be encouraged that winter starts next weekend and holds on for a while

Here's how I look at it... this winter has pretty much been epic disaster so far. We've all paid our dues already. There's a half decent chance that the pattern on deck is generally favorable for multiple weeks in a row. Even if the 18z gfs played out it's still a good a good look at the end. As long as the later periods on the ens keep looking ok I'm not going to stress about anything. OTOH- if the pattern flips back to abject failure before Jan is done this place will implode and we can call it a winter and meet back here next fall. The good thing is the CFS, Euro Weeklies and CanSips all look basically identical in the Pac for all of Feb into March. I know seasonal and weekly guidance suck sometimes but seeing unanimous agreement is encouraging.

The shortwave that hasn't formed yet and needs to travel 8,700 miles hasn't been sampled.

Gotta be honest... I thoroughly enjoyed riding my bike earlier and now having the windows open now with the breeze is kinda heavenly

@psuhoffman All weekly and seasonal guidance says that EPO ridge is here to stay through Feb. If that's the case it would take some pretty bad luck to not have multiple events. Fun period coming up. We should be focusing mostly on 7 days or less by late next week. D10+ is tiring every.single.year

Yea. Wut?

I don't think the Chiefs have the D to win it all honestly. Don't get me wrong, they're a great team. Especially on O. I may be totally wrong but I think the Ravens would/will beat the Chiefs with relative ease in the conf final. I'm not a Ravens fan either so no bias there

It's the old school playbook that's worked for a lot of SB winners. Tenacious defense and just good enough offense. The Giants and Ravens won SBs with the same recipe. Ravens O this year is next level. My guess is Ravens/Niners. Not sure KC has the D to win it all.

Omg. Quick turnover... wrong team. Need to find something else to do b4 the Ravens now

Vikes need a turnover immediately. Niners D is turning the screws. Need a momentum shift quick here

18z gfs is basically an epic disaster

If you loop H5 and MSLP panels with the hemispheric view... it looks like the EPS is setting up an Archambault event right at the end. -NAO flips + and mslp anomaly shows a potential coastal climbing the coast in the SE. Total fun fantasy talk but I'm not lying.... Eta: picture worth a thousand words... haven't had a miller A in 4 years... Eta #2: what PSU said already. Lol. We're telegraphing thoughts is seems.

EPS is decent next weekend. Better than 50% odds of 2"+ of snow before ice/sleet/rain. Later in the run looks pretty much like the gefs.... level up weenies

Look at the irony though. The doom blob was caused by the massive aleutian ridge in the npac. That same ridge gets sucked into the high latitudes and becomes a -NAO. So we can actually thank the hideous Pac for potentially saving winter.

All fixed until 18z

If you keep it simple and just go off history and our climo, a west track mixed event is the most likely option imho. Luckily thess types of events are usually mostly locked in by d4-5 since it's not a complicated upper level dance or phase. Just root for as fast and juicy as possible Eta: by locked in I mean general track/progression. Devil is always in the details. Hope we get to the point where some snow is guaranteed and we're only discussing how much

Anyone who frets an op run needs to click on hr 192 panel of the gfs on TT and click previous run 10 times and see what amazing consistency there is run over run.

If it wasn't for stupid dumb P12 it would be unanimous 2"+ on all members at DCA. I want to kick P12 right in the pill box. For those with digital snow fetishes... might want to view this post in private