Bob Chill

@psuhoffman my favorite part of the 18z gefs spread was how many solutions have ice in NC. The cold has really deepened on models today. Might not be done yet but prob close. ZR in Jacksonville is rare.

Find me a better D15+ fantasy op run... lol. Wow

You an I suffered through some rain on 40 degree soil last storm. Not this time it appears. We might even tally up some snowcover days if everything glaciates. Getting ahead of ourselves with that talk tho

Mean QPF on the 18z gefs for the event is the juiciest I've seen yet.

Here's the visual. Pretty sweet man.

Even though 18z gefs mean snowfall is a little less than 12z, it's actually a better run. Basically unanimous support for 2-6" of snow. 12z had a cluster of whiffs. 18z has none.

Truth. We usually have a long period of "sand" during our legit cold events that don't have strong upper level dynamics. Pretty much my least favorite kind of snow. The only time we get really nice 12-15:1 snow is with a classic track miller A and/or solid upper levels. I remember the Feb 14 storm. "Part 1" was full of crappy snow growth and low ratio snow before the sleet show. Later in the day when the ULL passed there was colorado rockies conditions and the surface temps weren't even that cold. Close to freezing iirc. Clippers usually have high ratio snowfall but they are also often moisture starved so not very memorable.

Exaclty. 800mb temps increase throughout the precip during WAA events. As those temps rise snowgrowth changes for the worse. Best dendrites/ratios happen at the beginning and deteriorate. Unlike our last warmfront... surface won't be torched and nothing will be lost to rain/melt. Love when snow sticks from the first flake. Less than half of our events are like that

Are we getting that late feb west track snowstorm we had a few years ago. That was nuts lol That was one for the books. May never happen again. Most of the snow fell in the teens and it never got above freezing. I can't think of a single other west track storm that had temps like that.

Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets.

We need the primary to track about 200 miles east and it's 6-12". Weenie me all you want... my statement is true

This is like 95% frozen. Lol. Euro has been tossed.

Exactly. It was what... 5 days ago when we had a warm front that juiced up within 72 hours? The easiest way for this event to blow up in a bad way is the cold high run away like a sissy. That's trending the good way still. I'm feelin pretty good for d5

Weenie rulebook: when NC is getting CAD snow on a west track we're getting hit solid

If the 18z GFS bumps south again I'm tossing the Euro op and I'm not kidding around. The Euro is an outlier of sorts with strength and placement.

I don't see any way this tracks under us. I know there's a chance but man, it's just not a good setup for that. However, track it west of the apps through the TN valley and the WAA/warm front can drop a lot of QPF into a decent column. Like .5-1" qpf. The ICON is a really big step towards a best case scenario.

Yea, IDGAF is the ICON is on crack right now. I'll take a hit and hug it.

That's not an inconsequential bump south either. Should be a colder run but so was the euro and slower timing was a wash.

That's the point I was trying to make. This isn't a Feb 10 or Jan 16 look where you just drool over the mean pattern and it's a matter of time before a miller A hits you. We could fail next weekend and blank out the next week and STILL be staring at multiple chances in the near future. That's a very good place to be. I hate discrete windows where if you miss out it could be days/weeks/months before another chance rolls along. The upcoming period looks far better than that.

@Ji Here's our long track coastal

You rarely see mean 850 anoms this cold d15 on the EPS. Very impressive panel from far out in time. Temps could be very friendly after this reshuffle settles down.

This is not a dream period imo. Storms will not come easy nor easily be all snow. It's a good pattern during primetime but it's several levels below a really good winter wx pattern.

EPS is pretty weak for the d10 deal. Majority of solutions that have a storm are too far east. There's a couple good hits but small minority. Safe to say there is little to no ens support for a blocked coastal.

EPS is pretty much unanimous of at least some frozen but as posted above it cut back. There's still an equal mix of a trace/2-4/bigger event like the GFS type solution. Spread indicates that it's too early to jump to any conclusions though.

EPS acts like a hive most of the time at shorter ranges. I'm expecting the ens to support the op. If 0z comes back colder/snowier the EPS will flip as well. OTOH- if the EPS is more consistent with what the GFS is showing I'll toss the op no problem.