Bob Chill

GEPS agrees with the GEFS with no southern storm next weekend. Both 12z ops showed a big hit but their ensembles strongly disagree.

Gefs has not been good this year overall. Very untrustworthy with just about everything. I look at it regularly of course but I have zero confidence with anything it puts out unless another ens looks similar. Sometimes I wonder if the times it gets it right D15 is an illusion of accuracy and is more a byproduct of coincidence than anything else. EPS has been very good this year. Some folks around here hate the EPS and call others model huggers. Which is silly because my only motivation is to try and be accurate and to do so you should weight the model with the best verification scores over the others.

Agree. It sure looks like next weekend is the beginning of an active period with both the NS and SS. We need less to go right for 2-3 weeks. Pile up the chances and see what happens. All 3 global ens looks similar too so we're not trying to ignore disaster by hugging outlier solutions. We do that well tho

Appears the reason the gefs looks crappy next weekend isn't because of rain anymore. Its due the majority of members not having the southern wave come north. Similar to last night's euro. Beyond that looks very intriguing. A lot of big storms of all flavors. Cluster stripes NC and S VA. I always like seeing that in the mix. It's a clue we may not need perfection with temps. Long way away and wtf knows where all this is going

12z gefs laughs at the op next weekend. Don't look unless disappointment is your thing

6-12" followed by 1-2' within a week works for me. Idgaf what happens after that. It could be 70 degrees the rest of Feb and I'd be perfectly happy with the world

9" of snow in Lake Pontchartrain could be a red flag but I'll ignore for now

I just lost interest next weekend. Feb 8th HECS is where it's at now

Ggem is more accurate than the gfs. I know it's hard to accept after YEARS of ggem bashing.

Yea..thought the bob chill storm would be easy snow and it sheared so I figured that would leave room for a big storm to follow and that is now looking sheared. It doesn't want to snow this year I'm guilty of this too so not throwing rocks at glass houses but we all tried to force fit the upcoming setup into a good chance at snowfall when in reality the chances were as slim as any other time this year. The predominant theme of low chances for snow and high chances of disappointment are still firmly in control

Medium range upper level madness this week. What seemed a little simple is now very complicated. I'll wave the white flag and save myself the stress

Look on the bright side. 0z Euro has no qpf next weekend and the cmc lost it too. ICON/GFS vs Euro/CMC. Maybe this is one of those times when a storm appears then lost then comes back and it's yuuuuge

Gefs looks better for the storm that the cmc doesn't have now. Still a minority group showing anything meaninful east of the mountains. It gets really busy beyond that time. Most of the big hits are believable coastals or overrunners and not jacked up weird storms. Would be nice if additional threats pop up to take the sting out of next weekend if it goes the wrong way

I'm started to get the feeling that ops are unable to figure out this shortwave puzzle yet. We had some weird stuff happen in JFM of 2014. Of course it was fun because it kept on snowing but ops were constanty hitting the reset button around d5.

CMC is going to be waaay different than the gfs or icon. It's all northern stream with no southern. Kinda like the 18z euro control run...

Gfs started looking crappier by hr96. If you compare the gfs and cmc with the wed-thurs deep south wave they are far apart and it's not long range. CMC verification scores are better so that means toss the gfs and hug the cmc... unless cmc is worse

18z control is actually a lot different with the northern stream compared to the 12z control. It's d5-6 so it's not like it's way out in lala lands. Check out the 12z control 850s on Friday. Total weak sauce all over the NE. -4s in upstate NY is terrible if we want snow Now look at the 18z. MUCH colder here and the ns shortwave is drawing down more cold on its heels. We'll see what happens with the 0z suite. Seems like we may be focusing on details that may actually be irrelevant. One run is never a trend but it did introduce some doubt on a warm coastal.

It was a good run all things considered. Widened the envelope for snow solutions. Even though we're seeing some consensus with general timing and track now it wouldn't be uncommon for everything to change in a way nobody expected

Some interesting developments of the 18z EPS. Only goes out to 144 but there were a few warning level events on the ground by 18z Friday. Not a lot but 12z didn't have any before Saturday. Looking at member solutions it appears there is now a better chance at the coastal coming up quicker. Some of the solutions didn't look like a coastal so I dug in a little and realized it's too early to write off a northern stream shortwave working instead of a coastal... like the control run...

I still to this day get bummed that I missed 93&96. Especially 96. It was't like I was suffering living in the Rockies but for whatever weird reason big east coast storms are really important to me. It's an affliction that we all share here. Those that don't get it will never get it. Those that are afflicted can never get enough....

Just to clear the air here.... I'm interested in next weekend and it totally fits the dynamically driven snow events that we get from time to time. We don't need any big shifts in track as is and it's slowly becoming unanimous that there will be a coastal next weekend and not a runner/cutter/slider. Can't not like that right? There are obvious glaring issues with the surface and midlevel temps/wind and those features should be carefully analyzed more than the storm itself imo. Might be a few days before we feel more confident in one outcome over the other. Maybe this is "the one" this year or maybe it's another example of how crappy our temps have been for 6 weeks.

One of the most basic key ingredients for a good midatlantic Miller A is a cold feed to fight against the thermal mechanics of a strong gulf low. They are very warm storms to start and continuously wrap in warm moist air as they head north. That's what makes them prolific snowstorms. When looking at surface and 850 temp maps you really want to see northerly flow at both levels all the way until game time and also have a below normal airmass to the north. Doesn't need to be arctic or anything. A basic canadian hp with normal to -5C anoms works fine. So far this event has the opposite. Way above normal to our north, strong SW flow in the mid levels and southeasterly surface winds on approach. These are glaring flags. Yes, we may have the stars align for our yards and yes, I have not punted yet...however...I won't be disappointed with lots of rain because that's the most likely outcome from what we know right now.

Faster would do it. Even with a crappy track so there's no doubt ways to win. Or slower with the departing high would improve things too. Us "low elevation" folks need a small miracle. I'm heading out to boil crows toes, sacrifice chickens, and kick small animals. BRB

I only care about my yard and never root for some interwebs stranger to get dumped on as I watch all my "potential snow" go down the drain. If I don't get a good event then anyone who does is dead to me. Every single weenie feels the same way deep inside and I'm not afraid to admit it publicly

I'm a visual person with analyzing setups. Euro looked no different. Does this honestly look like snow is likely in your yard? Precip is knocking on the door on this panel...