Bob Chill

Here's 0z eps spread during the 15-18th. About 10 members with more than a dusting so 20% see opportunity during this period. We'll see how that changes over the coming week

We have a discrete window between the 15-18th when strong confluence develops to our north out into the Atl and a half decent cold airmass to work with. All ens agree on some version. The tricky part is it's transient. So once chance at something from what I see. Will be at least 4-5 days before we know if a shortwave is going to cooperate

That transient confluence and favorable atlantic around the 17th is now showing up on all ensembles. Not sure how long the window will be but imho it's one of the better looks we've seen. All kinds of scenarios on the table with a big slow moving CAD high.

Verbatim that panel is a fail because the atl help is brief and back to square one by the end. However, spread is really starting to show up with both the pac ridge and confluence above us. I'm huggin the geps until something better comes along ETA: under the hood of that mean h5 panel is a good mix of half decent solutions to our north. About half are still crappy in the east but there are enough good ones to make it interesting with storm tracks.

I'd be thrilled with an active pattern and cold around. Ice/sleet/snow... don't care. Anything but rain and 50. 18z gfs shows the same Atlantic help as the ens around the 17th. Slowly seeing some consistency on our next real window.

@psuhoffman My best guess is we end up in this regime before the end of Jan. Geps is already there in 15 days. Eps/gefs are showing signs of moving this way. Latest weeklies look close enough.

@psuhoffman over the short/medium term we really couldn't draw up a worse hemispheric pattern. I'm avidly chasing less of a disaster. Today was a good day in modeland. String a few more in a row and it gets interesting again. It's been 3 weeks since the flip in mid Dec and all of our early fears from that flip are coming true. I just want out. I know we're not magically flipping to a big dog setup. I'm doubting a big dog setup happens at all but still 6-8 weeks to go before ruling it out. But for god sakes... give us a little cookie to chew on. Something.... anything...

@Ji Look what the geps does in the npac. That's a big change from where we are next 10 days. I'm thinking a cluster of eps members are seeing the same thing and that's why the run over run change on the EPS was so big. For the first time in a while we're seeing ens guidance in the nPac to not agree out in time in the npac. That nasty Aleutian ridge may be on the move before we think...

I don't disagree there but the changes start d10 and continue. A number of subtle hints being dropped that we won't be at war with the -pna for the entire next couple weeks. I'm not saying I like the setup d15 because I don't. However, the breakdown or relocation of the nPac ridge could be abrupt. My interpretation of the 12z eps is odds are increasing for a reshuffle in the nPac. Now we're seeing period of interest around the 17th to help pass time while fighting the -pna. My hunch is we're seeing the beginning of a longwave pattern shift showing up. Right now it's all washed and muddy because of time. If there is going to be a shift inside of 15 days the signal should grow from here.

EPS is start to at least move towards an improved Pac and reshuffle. For giggles take a look at d15 control h5. Scand ridge into Greeland...

Look at the run over run change in the Npac. It might be ugly but it's also a sig improvement from 0z...

Eps is picking up on a discrete cold shot with a longshot threat centered around the 17th. Like Cape mentioned earlier, the gefs has a similar idea. As long as there's something to track it keeps me sane in an otherwise insanely bad pattern

Agree, and 12z eps is actually a sig improvement d10+ in the Atl. Better than the gefs now... Overall the Pac is stable and overwhelming through d15. We need that ridge/trough alignment to change here at some point. Any meaningful change there is getting pushed out in time every day.

Hard to see no progress over 2 full weeks... I'd have to look at some composites but this Jan seems awfully similar Jan 2002 going off memory

Shave a few degrees off low levels and add a tenth or 2 of qpf and a widespread 1-4" would happen

Seeing strong consensus for the first time next week. Soundings along and west of 95 (close burbs) look good in the mids but the surface to 925mb temps are sketchy.

Ens have been moving the wrong direction down the line. Seeing consensus on a continuation of a nasty -pna without enough from the Atl side to offset anymore. Is what it is but my confidence of getting out of this mess in Jan is declining. Pac NW weenies will be running naked through the streets for at least a couple weeks

The D18 extended gfs snows on us

All disclaimers apply to op runs late but man, I really liked a lot on the 18z gfs from d10-16. D18 is an extrapolated snowstorm. Need gefs to agree on the speed of kicking out that nasty trough.

Keep it simple... just hug the d11-12 18z gfs and pray it's right. Best run in days for getting out of the mess we're in...

Doesn't look like the nasty -pna is going to release its grip inside of 2 weeks so that part sucks but enough hints that the Atl will do just enough to put us back in the game even with a -pna. It's comical that we're intently tracking and excited for a pattern change that still isn't good in the big picture. Lol. Yep, that's where we are... again... experts at tracking how to get out of shutout patterns.

EPS improved the Atl d10-15 but the western trough is still in beast mode and not moving so hurry up and wait. lol

We'll see how it goes but the medium to short range trend has been norther/warmer for several weeks now. Keep getting chances even in a jacked up pattern and something could break right but I'm very skeptical that this can break in anyone's favor on the sub. If I'm wrong I'll gladly admit my bust while I'm shoveling.

Aleutian ridge progresses and starts shoving the massive repeating trough in the west eastward so that's something. It's just an op but it doesn't support the ens idea of being back to something at least "acceptable" before the 18th. Still plenty of work to do at the end of the gfs. My main concern is the repeating trough ends up hanging on far longer than we want. We'll know one way or another within the next 3-5 days.

EPS is similar with the transition in the Atl. From everything I see, ens agree that we transition back to a more wintry pattern during the 15-18th period. That's my focus and we'll see if that holds and starts moving out in time. I'm sure you're thinking the same. Looks like some pretty anomalous warmth on tap from the 10th-15th. Very impressive 850 anomalies showing up from long range. We may touch 60 a couple times this month before anything good happens.