Bob Chill

Oops. Didn't mean to imply anything irt to your posts. A number of people look back as 2016 being a fail year. If that's a fail year then what's 2011-12 or this year so far?

We go around in this circle every.single.year. It can be in the 50s for a week straight and snow will stick easily at 32-33. Happens every single time

Agreed. A chance at an all snow event of any size is great at this point. It's not moisture starved clipper type of event. It's a pacific shortwave that taps the gulf a bit on its way across the country. Fast moving and not very amplified so as is I would guess 1-2/2-4 kind of deal best case scenario. EPS has a few bigger hits in the mix so I suppose there's a bit more potential. Otoh- every single "event" this year has degraded in the medium/short range. Hard to bet against that but at least we finally have a discrete event at a 1 week range to discuss. How long until it goes poof this time? Lol

Imho- the puritan stuff is a facade so people can feel good about themselves as they secretly watch deviant porn late at night and think deviant thoughts as they wander down the sidewalk in the afternoon. I'd venture a guess that half the people who are screaming foul about the halftime show have rewatched the halftime show several times today. Lol

2016 was a hecs and it also gave us 3 weeks of snow cover...plus 10 days of tracking it...that storm gave us a month worth of snow fun lol It was an amazing event on every level. Rivals the first feb 2009 event for long tracking. 09 gets the nod because NWP technology is more advanced now. I try to never want to tell people how to think about winters or events. I will say there are plentiful people that think we live in Buffalo for # of events and Boston for size of events and anything less than that is abject failure. Kinda like you. LoLoL. We regularly have warm lame winters with abysmal snowfall. Any winter better than that is a win to me. So far this year it's one of the absolute worst winters. We knew we never had a chance in 2011-12 so it wasn't a big deal. 12-13 was bad with enough action late to not be abject failure. This winter is brutal because there's been a lr storm lurking at all times that never comes close to working out. It's like a hex or something

I'm pretty interested in that specific shortwave now. Nice pass but variations in strength are wobbling around every 6 hours. I liked the 18z gfs for the sole reason that it shows the same shortwave at the same time. Over 10 runs in a row showing variations of the same thing and now the EPS is latching on. I don't have any strong feelings one way or another but it looks exponentially better than all these gradient waves showing up. I know what those will do to my yard and I'm not ready to mow my lawn in Feb... haha

At d7 I would still agree if it was just 1 out of 50. Get the same 35-50 between 96-120 hours and I'll change my mind quickly.

Yea man, I'd skip that scene. Jackson doesn't have much infrastructure to handle crowds. I know they've redone some of the base areas but the resort itself is a bit of a traffic/people choke. Kinda like stupid dumb Jiffy Lube Live in VA. lol. Shows are great. Leaving shows are AWFUL. haha Jackson requires a direct flight unless you don't mind driving a long long way from Denver. I've never priced flights into Jackson but it has to be really expensive. I'm always budget conscious with trips. Spending $500+ per person for just airfare is against my personal rules.

We all judge seasons on our own subjective data. One good baseline I use for a winter is did it have a memorable or anomalous event or was it a dumpster fire start to finish? 2016 was a 30" event in my yard. Biggest single event in the 18 years I've lived here. That stat alone makes 2016 a memorable and good winter even with lots of dead space. I liked 2015-16 FAR more than 2010-11 and 10-11 was at least acceptable by my grading standards.

Snowmaps come in all flavors and their usefulness is heavily debated on the regular. However, I really like the EPS 24hr snow meteos. Give you quite a bit of important data at a single glance. Most importantly it provides concise data irt timing or shotgunning. Whenever digital events are splattered over time with no consensus it means there is no discrete threat at all. However, when members start ganging up in a tight time window it's very meaningful. I actually really like the 12z eps for Sun/Mon. This is one of the best inside d7 looks we've had. D10+ is a scatterbrain shotgun blast but not next weekend... Let's see if this can trend right for once. ETA: 35 out of 50 show some sort of frozen precip Sun/Mon. I can't think of a single event at this range where it had nearly 75% agreement on some sort of winter wx.

This stuff is always a gamble. Weather is as annoyingly unpredictable in the rockies as it is here. If I were in your shoes I would probably go to CO but half of the reason is economics and convenience

I road tripped there 4 different times and it was only after big snowfalls so it was naturally more crowded. The only lift line that was horrible was the tram. You can get to the same place through a series of lifts. I absolutely love Jackson Hole. The terrain, snow conditions, and vertical drop are one of the best in the country. When do you plan on going? If it's not over president's day or spring break march madness it should be less crowded than any resort within 2 hours of Denver. With 4k' of vertical you get all the possible different snow conditions on a top to bottom run. I was there in March once and deep powder at the top. Spring/sierra powder in the middle, and straight up spring corn/potatoes in the lower sections. Each condition offers unique opportunities. I can't think of any resort in CO that is like that. Maybe Aspen highlands. Steamboat is a no go for me in March. Powder doesn't stay powder for long due to low elevation. Top of Mt Werner is only around 10k'. A basin's bottom is the same height.

I don't disagree with anything you're saying. My issue is looking beyond the ranges I specified isn't really tracking and it hasn't been all year. Myself and many others have made many detailed d10+ posts this year but time and time again we all looked like morons as it rained on us or was +10 when it was supposed to be -5. It became really clear that I wasn't tracking weather as much as tracking using very inaccurate data. I don't blame the models. This year has been a tug of war with multiple drivers of the hemispheric patterns. Buried inside of all the ensemble runs was group of possible outcomes that varied greatly inside the mean. We all focused on the clusters that showed promise and ignored all the clusters that said warmth and rain will prevail. Now it's time to stick to persistence and ignore the promising clusters until the promising clusters overwhelm the ens suite. I'm not holding my breath...

@Ji lol. D6-10 is dead to me on all ops. D10+ on all ens is dead to me too. Models have been nothing short of abysmal beyond those ranges. The only valuable data you can extract in those ranges is whatever you see is unlikely to be remotely correct. The shortwave this coming weekend is the only thing I'm interested in and I'm barely interested for now...

It still has the shortwave at least. It's a subtle shortwave so jumps towards stronger and weaker will prob continue all week as long as it doesn't become a digital phantom. Euro would have been more of a bummer if there was no shortwave at all. That's kinda where we are with this one. Is it real or is it just fantasy?

Been a frustrating year to be it really lightly... I made peace with it a few weeks ago. No sense expecting a different outcome with the same type of setups over and over and over... Things can still easily change in Feb. It would be extremely unlikely for a -PNA to park for an entire month. It's usually more of a weekly cycle. 2 week -PNA followed by a 2 week flip. All the years I lived in CO it was really common to have 1-2 week storm cycles followed by 1-2 weeks of bluebird beauty. Couple the EPO and PNA ridges and we'll suddenly have deeper cold and better odds. I don't care what models say... a -PNA combined with a strongly + AO/NAO is one of the worst tele patterns to get snowfall here. Even flukes have an uphill battle. I won't start feeling better about Feb until the troughs quit dropping in the west. Of course it would be nice to have some AO/NAO help instead of both indexes being record breaking hostile. LOL. There are hints of that maybe backing down but it's always d10+. I'm 100% done with d10+. It's been fools gold start to finish so far.

Location matters. If I lived in your area or along the MD line I would think differently. In my yard (and 90% of this sub's) the only way to really have good chances is to have both cold and precip together. We get some warm storms sometimes like Feb 2006 and many others. But to have a good season it can't be +6 for 3 months. LOL. Maybe +1-2 and even that causes heartbreak more than high fives.

It's a decent shortwave close enough to the previous cold front to possibly turn into something. It's the only thing I'm interested though. Other than the timing on that one shortwave all the others are trailing too far behind what limited cold air we have to work with. I don't disagree with winterwxluvr with precip > cold because that's how we often score in a crappy setup. However, this year is 100% on the shoulders of literally no cold air when it counts. There's a concurrent string of examples since late Dec. One or more of those should have dropped AT LEAST 1-3/2-4 before mixing out. I'm not buying anything the ops are showing with these progressive waves. It's a terrible pattern to have a good airmass and we're too far south. If every single shortwave trends norther/wetter/warmer I will not be surprised at all. I'm totally expecting it to break that way and you probably feel the exact same way.

They are. I've been lucky with all 4 of my kids in their teens. Very open about stuff. Some of what they tell me bothers the F out of me but there's no stopping a 15+ year old from learning by experience. My 23 year olds still talk really open with me about some really difficult stuff. Being a friend AND a parent is really stinkin hard sometimes but it's the only way to get intel and hopefully avoid a disaster.

I took my son to a skins game when he was 8. All he talked about on the way home is how crazy drunk people act and he heard more "bad words" in 4 hours than he has in his life. I knew this going in so it didn't bug me one bit but the NFL isn't family friendly if you're worried about profanity, fights, and overall poor behavior all around. Been that way since I went to my first skins game in 1979. I took him to see a Nats game and he asked "why do players grab their pee pee all the time? and that spitting constantly is kinda gross". I had to stifle laughter as I "explained how it is".

What if Dolly Parton performed last night with a low cut dress and and perilously on display? Would there be outrage?

And just to be clear. My post was in response to the social media blitz that's been running non stop since the halftime show. It's ugly... I was in no way singling you (or anyone) out with my post. Divisive issues are a mainstay in the US. It's part of the heartbeat of the country and has been that way for a long as I've been alive. I really wish differing opinions on many issues had a middle ground but they never (or rarely) do unfortunately.

Everybody is entitled their own opinion. You stated yours and I stated mine. This is a divisive issue with no middle ground. We don't agree with each other and that's fine. We'll continue as friends from here.

Lol. Football is the most edgy and violent mainstream sport in the US. The people who watch it crave massive hits and violent outcomes on every play. Not to mention fans love having potty mouth and yelling and screaming at tvs, strangers, and friends. They also love staring at cheerleaders' bodies and thinking dirty thoughts every.single.game. But sexy superstars Shakira and J-Lo are offensive? Omg man. This has to be the DUMBEST argument I've ever seen. I mean seriously. This is next level stoopid.

Agree. I cant pull soundings on TT right now for some reason but surface is northerly and midlevel is WNW. It's a good setup for a long period of snow/mix/ice on the 12k NAM. Can't trust it but it provides some interesting things to look at and think about with future runs. We've backed out every single event this year as we approach the short range and this seems to be ripe for the same trends. The risk of trending warm/rainy over the next 2-3 days if far greater than trending cold/frozen. I'm personally not enthused.