Bob Chill

Just use your mom's advice at the dinner table when you were 7. "How do you know you wont like it until you try it?"

You need to add "Bad Ass" to the beginning of your screen name.

You know the neighborhood lines in DC very well. I'd ask why you know this but then it would reveal that I know it too so I wont

Dude, it's 2021. There's an entire shelf of various colored pills at the pharmacy. Some are better than others but you havent lived until you take them all at once

12z def has a bigger red horse schlong but still not in the right place. Maybe euro will put the schlong in my yard

If my yard gets screwed I can assure you that you will change your mind

There is no doubt digital thunder and lightning somewhere in our forum. 100% chance imo with that vort panel

Damn dude. Back pretty fast after the rgem. I figured you'd still be busy in private until the euro

This is the way

RGEM / ICON shift in guidance is what I was alluding to last night. Just keep my (or your) yard in the game. Unlikely that all of 12z follows but having a couple runs (and not a freakshow outlier) keep my yard in the envelope for big totals is a big win. Again, these storms almost ALWAYS do unexpected things in real time. I just want to know I have a chance so I dont feel compelled to troll and stir up chit

You need to switch "years" with "weeks" and it makes more sense

There's a 100% chance if my yard jacks I'll rub it in like a boss and go dark until the next one. Winners like to leave like winners. Losers are a dime a dozen

Obviously my circle drills me every event too and I've eaten plenty of fried crow sandwhiches. Now I say it the same way. "Dont be mad if we get totally screwed but IF things break right we could get x amount". Then I'll add my personal level of optimism/pessimism. Always gives you an escape hatch and when we get screwed you can tell your circle to STFU because you warned them. Experienced weenies play this game like chess. Noob weenies play it like crazy 8s and barrel full of monkeys.

So what your saying is models are adjusting toward the most common and typical outcome and not hitting a gut shot straight on the river? Who could have ever seen this coming?

The good thing is we only get a good storm every 3-5 years now so the topic isnt nearly as heated as it was when it used to snow here without picking the right mega millions #s

Figures I'd jump back in during a major event with a side order of forum divider. If 12z suite continues I'll spend my day making fliers and start gerrymandering and drawing new districts. Sorry mappy and psu. I'm only loyal to moco-hoco deathbands

Practically EVERY SINGLE STORM is a disappointment to many. Nobody knows our yards like we do. Gotta combine modelism with IMBY'ism and adjust accordingly. PSU was only freaking out this week because storms like this often crush his yard and models werent showing that. They were showing "unusual yard jacks" and it was very troubling to him

After all we've been through over the last 15-20 years on the forums, you should know to never predict more than 6" until 8" is on the ground and "radar looks great"

Hey man you gonna stick around for what looks to be an active February. And yes...on your post. Think March 2001 lol Only for game time during events. If this storm wasnt lining up over a weekend I prob wouldnt have jumped back in. Expectations on these kinds of storms should be easy. There's plenty of history to draw off of. Jan 2016 was the absolutely ultimate end result and quite anomalous. Which was incredible but that's not happening again with this one. This one is more typical w/climo. You and me are fighting for a total respectable enough that we can light the board up with goofy nonsense. Otherwise we go dark and log off.

Usually not until its already happening and we dont need models anymore

Hoo is this guy?

Dont worry yourself to death and get caught between IMBY'ism. It's game time. We all only care about our yards. I'm honest about it. Some like to wish everybody gets the same amount but that's not how this game works. You'll see all kinds of different "takes" on each run because people are only focusing on about 30 pixels of the entire digital map Know your climo. NS hybrids rarely jack anyone north of the potomac with part #1. I always expect to be in the middle unless there's ptype problems. Your area is lower and sw in VA is higher. It's how it works basically always. These storms also rarely jack my yard with part 2. NOVA fears part 2 for good reasons. Climo favors N-NE MD. I usually get some decent snow but again, fall in the middle. Your yard is typically higher and part 2 has higher ratios due to cold column and upper level support. This helps juice accums for the lucky ones. Models struggle dearly with part 2 because a ton of sh!t has to happen first before part 2 gets going. As leads shorten, more and more of the important things are resolved and out of the way. We're close to that part but were still talking Monday, not Sunday. We won't know for sure how part 2 breaks until snow is already falling. Even then we wont know because storms like this have a long standing habit of doing unexpected things. I personally dgaf what models show tonight or even tomorrow night for part 2 as long as my yard is still generally in the game for something decent. Lastly there's the WD and WND indexes to consider. In 2016 my yard got absolutely raked in the deform bands. I was right on the line but got smoked. For that reason alone I don't expect to be in the jackpot zone in either part but I am expecting a very fun, long duration, instant stickage, multi faceted storm. These are rare and amazing. If you get a foot and it bugs you that somewhere relatively close gets 18", you'll never have fun doing this

This is the only part of the hobby that is a blast. The rest is a lot of work with no paycheck. Lol. I'm doing totally fine. The only time to worry about me is when I don't show up for a storm like this. Haha

Euro/eps has been the coldest global leading in. I havent looked at nearly as many maps as others around here with this storm but I do know the euro suite is the most optimistic with cold. You're def getting plenty of precip. Just need CAD to flex. You know your climo better than me tho. That always matters in the midatlantic regardless of what models say

I can't decide if it's filthy or Stimpy after hitting the top shelf indica.