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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Euro still sucks but a nice step in the right direction in the upper levels. Little more confluence and it's at least partially snow. I'll take it as a win.
  2. Bob Chill
    GEFS has been really sh!tty this year. Jumpy AF and gets reasonable ens range stuff wrong regularly. I really don't trust it at all anymore. It's no different than just guessing yourself unless the pattern is really stable. Any model should get that right though.
  3. Bob Chill
    I have a gut feeling it will be quite different than 0z but still suck eggs
  4. Bob Chill
    12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet.
  5. Bob Chill
    Just drink 18 coronas the night before and call in the morning and just say I'm sick from Corona. Perfectly truthful and 100% chance of getting off work.
  6. Bob Chill
    I didn't. The 0z euro control did. Each weenie must decide for themselves if they believe a control ens member 330 hours in advance. La la lockitup
  7. Bob Chill
    Link?
  8. Bob Chill
    I'd have to review Jan 2016 again because my detailed memory of the upper levels is lacking but there are structural similarities. Unusual west based block moving lock step with the ULL and a beast 50/50 in place. If it's going to be a one and done year let's do it this way...
  9. Bob Chill
    At least look at the multi param panels starting at hr330. It even reminds me of Jan 16... When you only have fantasy digital snow it's nice to see a really big fantasy storm even if the odds are terrible.
  10. Bob Chill
    Did you look at the euro control from 0z? MA special. Just like the 09-10 storms. Big hit with WAA followed by a CCB shellacking. You get almost 2 feet. The only issue is it's d13-14. Big ones are sniffed out early and we're due and it's Feb and blah blah blah.... ETA: lol- it's a blocked 36-48 hour storm. dropping 1.5 - 3"+ of QPF region wide. Did someone mention the 0z control last night? One of the best digital storms of the year.
  11. Bob Chill
    I didn't like 0z ens suite. If anything the 0z runs strengthen the case for a nothingburger more than showing promise. We'll see if that flips here over the next few hours.
  12. Bob Chill
    lol- I gotta stop talking about kicking bunnies and stuff. I'm making someone angry
  13. Bob Chill
    Yea, Aspen isn't favored with NW flow. W or SW is money for the central rockies. Abasin added another 6" to the 14" at 5am so sitting at 20" and is expecting another foot. My buddy is sending me texts every couple hours... in a very antagonizing but funny way. lol. JH will be money though. HUGE base mid and upper mountain with massive new snow. Hope you brought a snorkel.
  14. Bob Chill
    Ukie is sweet. Rippin STJ underneath the ULL.
  15. Bob Chill
    As long as we can time a slow moving ULL to turn the corner right into transient confluence we're good. Can't really think of anything that can go wrong.
  16. Bob Chill
    Cmc looks a lot like the ICON at 108
  17. Bob Chill
    Nothing to hold the 50/50 in place and that's unlikely to change. It's a 3-4 day window tops before winds turn southerly in mids and surface
  18. Bob Chill
    The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible Yea, I've been mostly skipping looking too much. Really bouncy. Go to gfs @ hr126 and click previous run 8 times. That's not that far out in time. Models are all over the place for this timeframe
  19. Bob Chill
    The modeling for next week ...starting about 5 days ago has been wild...snowstorms to cutters and 70...to sleet to rain...pretty much everything possible Tpv se of hudson that becomes a 50/50 and a closed low tracking the deep south. If that's right it's a pretty big block. Could be too much. We'll know in 3 days or so.
  20. Bob Chill
    No doubt. It's not going to lock in this far out. Just follow the ball. Could be in real time in 3 days
  21. Bob Chill
    It was closed through 144. Same shortwave from the pac on the icon. It's a slow roller. Forms between d3-4. Something to watcn
  22. Bob Chill
    Can you imagine if we got a hecs this winter in February lol All this chasing d15 or d150 or whatever and a big storm might sneak up on us inside of 8 days.
  23. Bob Chill
    This has been a very active southern stream year...like 2003....without the cold but it just takes one weekend where it comes together and you get pd2 or the storm of 1983 Gfs looks very similar to the icon at h5 hr144... confluence and an ULL tapping the gulf.
  24. Bob Chill
    Damn, ICON bringing the HECS. Straight river out of the gulf into a nasty 50/50 blocked high. Would be 1 foot of waa and another with the CCB. Nyc north would get nothing. A true MA special. Prob wrong but that's the best storm at hr180 I've seen this year. What a squeeze play...
  25. Bob Chill
    It would be very fitting right? I don't have strong feelings one way or the other right now because next week never looked like it does now until the last few days. I wouldn't put my money on deep cold and suppressed storms. We've had a number of LR looks showing that and it never remotely came close to verifying. Under 10 days now so this time is a little different. Time will tell
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