Bob Chill

No worries. It's divisive so butting heads at times is inevitable. The SB is the most watched tv event in the world. Massive diverse audience. Marketing's job is to attract the largest viewership possible. The halftime show appealed to a global audience and as with any huge audience some people like it and some people dont.

Okay boss...so this is the real bob chill storm. Not just no... helllz noes. I never want a storm named after me again. I didn't want it when it happened in 2012. It's the only gd shortwave I've seen in a month that has real promise at d5. My interest has more to do with withdrawal than potential. The temp issues can prob only be overcome if it winds up and stays south. Gfs runs surface lp to Pittsburgh. That's not going to work (and it didn't). Euro/eps like a track from KY thru Central VA. That works. If it's weak and lame then .2 - .3 qpf = 0-1"

The gfs is doing an excellent job at keeping Ji from latching onto an unrealistic run and then hating his 3-6 sat night. I thought the gfs looked great. You can easily see how this can pop but you can't do that if you only look at surface panels...

I can't find anymore within a half mile of my house

I remember having to explain viagra and cialis commercials to my then 5 year olds while watching Nat Geo or Discovery or whatever nature shows they would air on 10 years ago. Beautiful and talented women wearing attractive costumes is 5 levels below that. And I still didn't care. We're all human so may as well learn what that means as often as possible.

Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos.

lol- yes and no. Weekend deal has my close attention but no green light until unanimous consensus inside of 72 hours. It's going to be a looooong 48 hours ahead. On another note... EPS is kinda weenieish d10+.

Strong juicy shortwave and good track. Still a fast mover no matter what. All the good ones look about the same with strength and track. Still plenty of crappy or whiff solutions. Just a notable uptick in the larger hits.

Huggable multi param mean panel... The real fun starts as the whiffs drop out and big hits replace them over the next 4 days.

12z EPS def showing upside surprise potential for the weekend. Nice run. Oddly, the CMC and GEPS don't have the wave at all. Hard to flat out ignore that but I will. Go EPS!

Lol. I didn't think about context. I was only saying that next week looks really lame. Beyond d10 anything is possible. Maybe it flips cold and snowy or maybe it sticks with warm and rainy. I don't have any insight there.

There's nothing to look at imho beyond the weekend. Whatever comes next is going to be rainy and lame. Save yourself the stress and forget about next week.

Just gotta sweat it out until Thursday or so. I don't care about any gyrations in surface panels as much as holding and increasing the upper level energy. Get a good strong vort pass overnight even with marginal air it should work out in some way. The nice thing about the track on the euro is surface winds turn northerly while it's precipitating. That's been a rare occurrence this year. We're usually fighting tooth and nail against southerly winds

This is a good setup for an upside surprise. I'm not spiking any footballs but all systems have been juicy this year whether they hit us or not (who cares cuz rain..). Looking just at h5 vort panels it looks healthy and track is good. Keep that locked in for now and see if we can catch a break when we're inside of 3 days.

No, of course not. I only look 2 weeks down the line. Weather is like the stock market. You can make sense of it fairly often but no matter how much you know it can still surprise the F out of you. I do think all the gradient waves are likely fails though. If you look at everything in totality it's a terrible and low probability way we get snow here. There's nothing to stop cold from running away and nothing to stop shortwaves from tracking north of us. It does look interesting beyond d12 but I'm done with anything d10+. It's been nothing but mirages and failures for 8 straight weeks. It would be insane to expect different outcomes until they are really close in time.

Even then it's too early as long as the shortwave remains intact. Once we get to 72 hours or less the clock starts really ticking on big adjustments. I'll reserve bailing until we're 72 hours out and all the oil leaked and the engine blows pistons out of the cylinder head.

@psuhoffman check out this piece of the forecast discussion from the CAIC: "The atmosphere dries out overnight as the upper-level trough shifts east. This will be short-lived as the eastward movement of the trough eventually puts Colorado under moist northwest flow. Beginning tomorrow night the Northern Mountains will see an extended period of snow with moderate, and at times strong, northwest winds. The strength of the jet stream and abundance of moisture should also provide ample snow down to portions of the Southern Mountains that are favored in northwest flow." NW flow is the absolute best and most prolific snowfall setup for Steamboat/Winter Park/Summit County in CO and Jackson in WY. The central mountains like Aspen do "ok" usually with NW flow but moisture has to cross a lot of tall ridges to get that far south. It's the same reason that Summit Co sucks ass with SW flow. Aspen gets hammered but there are too many tall ridges between Aspen and Summit Co. I learned my first year there that any winter storm warning with S or SW flow was ripe for an epic bust. I didn't learn it until I suffered through 3-5 epic busts. lol

Yea, I hate being mentally conditioned to fail. That's what made me step back last week. The upcoming period in general has a fatal flaw so I'm hanging onto the weekend shortwave because it's the only thing promising. Beyond that people need to not ignore the fact that longwave patterns act like rubber bands so as long as the troughs keep dropping in the west the height rises or north trend in the east can't be offset. The only thing that can offset a -PNA is blocking. Considering we have nearly record breaking unblocking there is no way I'll believe a long range prog showing snow on a gradient wave. Even PA/NY will struggle at times with this set of features. MD doesn't work with 2 strikes against like 90% of the time and that's what we have in the upper levels... at least 2 strikes against...

I'm conflicted... These types of shortwaves are absolute bread and butter here. It's one of the most common ways we get a modest snowfall. So for that reason I'm getting sucked in. But then when I mentally review this season since Dec 1st I get that sinking feeling that even with a bread and butter shortwave my yard is still kinda F'd. Smell what I'm steppin in?

GFS is obviously weaker/sheared but at d4+ that doesn't matter as much as the shortwave remains viable. Another run showing that. Good enough for now.

In any "normal" winter, a vort pass like this would easily drop 1-3/2-4 or even 3-6 if it juices in the short range (common). Problem is we can buy a single "normal" airmass at all this year. My early guess is someone gets 3" out of the deal and it won't be my yard. Western VA appears to be the favored location. Up along the MD line it's getting on the fringes of best lift/dynamics but will that trend for the better? Yea, probably. Can my yard get several hours of good snow and not record a half inch? Yea, probably that too.

It's a good shortwave. It's looked good from afar and now we're getting kinda close and still looks good. Temps are the obvious red flag but if I lived in your area I wouldn't be as worried.

Apologize in advance if this has been posted already but does anybody else find it comical that this winter is SO BAD we need a separate panic and complaint thread? That's a strong technical indicator that this winter is a pile of hippo dung spread all over the MA

Yea... looked at soundings. Southerly flow from the deck to 800mbs. Ground might be a little muddy after 5" of rain so we need heavy rates to overcome the quagmire

I have a hard time believing it being rain when a 1030+ cold hp is nosing down the 2 days before. It hits at night and the mids appear fine. Haven't looked at 800mb temp yet. This looks like bread and butter small event more than rain with the vort pass and slp track. If that stays the same things will look better over the coming days